Results from US augur well for AIB

Investor: In the UK and Ireland, quoted companies produce financial reports twice a year - an interim report at the half-way stage and a final report shortly after the accounting period year- end. Typically, the final report will be more detailed than the interim report and shareholders will subsequently receive a copy of the annual report and accounts.

This document provides shareholders and other interested parties, such as the company's bankers and creditors, with extensive information regarding the company.

Information will usually be provided on the company's various operating divisions, together with update statements from the key executives regarding business conditions and the outlook for their respective areas of responsibility.

The annual report is the key baseline document for shareholders in any company as it provides a wealth of hard financial data together with management's assessment of the future prospects for the business.

Unfortunately, the annual report can be somewhat historical by the time it reaches many shareholders. To counter this, many quoted companies will issue regular trading updates to shareholders over the course of the year.

In North America, company information tends to be more timely as quoted companies have to go the extra mile by producing financial reports on a quarterly basis.

This week the US second-quarter earnings season gets into full swing. Analysts are predicting that corporate earnings will rise by 20 per cent compared with the same quarter last year. If the actual outturn is as good as this forecast, it will be the fourth successive quarter of earnings growth at this level.

Curiously, investors and analysts are awaiting earnings announcements with a sense of nervous trepidation. Some of the early second-quarter reports from several technology companies disappointed the market. The actual earnings figures produced were mostly in line with forecasts, but the statements regarding future prospects were somewhat downbeat.

The cautious tone emanating from these company executives occurred just as some economic indicators regarding business and consumer spending were turning down.

In addition, US retailers reported that sales in June slowed to the slowest year-on-year rise this year. For example, Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, reported the weakest growth in June since May 2003.

The danger for equity market investors is that the current newsflow from the economy and companies may be the first warning signs that the US economy may be peaking. It is therefore likely that the statements accompanying the second-quarter financial reports will be afforded greater prominence in the market's eyes than the actual results themselves.

It will take one or two more weeks of results before a comprehensive picture emerges and, until that happens, the major US equity indices could well mark time.

In terms of the results from individual US companies, the main Irish interest this week was provided by M&T Bank in which AIB has a 22.5 per cent stake. This holding is the result of the merger between AIB's wholly owned Allfirst subsidiary and the larger M&T Bank.

First-quarter profits were held back somewhat by an after-tax charge of $7 million (€5.64 million) related to its mortgage business. There were no such negatives in the second-quarter results as M&T announced that its net income rose to $184.4 million - equivalent to $1.53 per share. This compares with the $1.10 per share earned in the same quarter last year and to the consensus of analysts' forecasts of $1.45 per share.

A big improvement in non-performing assets lay behind the strong second quarter as well as a 3 per cent growth rate in overall assets to $52.1 billion.

Mr Michael Pinto, M&T's chief financial officer, said that these results were consistent with the bank's prior forecast of full-year 2004 profits in the range of $5.90-$6.10 per share.

AIB is due to release its own interim financial results before the end of July. In a pre-close trading statement released on June 21st, the bank stated that it was experiencing strong business momentum across the group. These figures from M&T Bank mean that it has made a positive contribution to the growth of the overall group during the first half of this year.

This strong performance from the US, combined with continued buoyancy in the Irish economy, suggests that AIB should meet or even exceed current market forecasts of its first-half performance.

If fears regarding a potential slowing in the US economy have evaporated by the end of July, a solid set of results from AIB may act as a catalyst to inject an upward bias to its share price.