Plots and subplots for Jurys players

Family interests still hold the power as growing number of suitors circle, writes Una McCaffrey

Anybody fancy a bet on how the summer soap opera that is Jurys Doyle will end up? The odds will be good, as will the drama that is sure to develop before the wager comes to a head. Be clear though: this is not a game for the faint-hearted - only those with steady nerves and very, very deep pockets need apply.

And this will will not be a straightforward story of winners and losers. In fact, there are two battles, with some players fighting in both and some giving no signal of where they might stand on either.

The first race is the takeover process, which began nearly four months ago. It started when Precinct, the group that took the Gresham hotel group private last year, said it was looking at a bid. A number of approaches followed, with the final one, at €17.50, winning a recommendation from the Jurys board at the end of July.

Due diligence began and, for a while, Precinct looked to be on the brink of Gresham mark two, albeit on a much grander scale. A large spanner was thrown into the works last week when Anglo Irish, Precinct's bankers, said it no longer wanted to back a €1.1 billion bid. This was after developer Sean Dunne swooped to build an 18 per cent stake in the group.

New funding was subsequently secured from HBOS, but the fire had by then gone out of Precinct's approach and, on Wednesday of this week, the consortium exited the scene. Against expectations however, Jurys shares stayed strong, trading as high as €18.

One reason for this lay with the Reuben brothers, the intriguing and very wealthy London investors who were putting up most of the equity for Precinct.

Their vehicle, Aldersgate, remains an interested party in the takeover process even though Precinct has departed. In theory, it could still make a friendly bid if Simon Reuben, the most interested of the two brothers, decides the moment is right.

Staring Reuben down in the shadows (and providing more backbone for Jurys shares), meanwhile, are two other potential bidders: developer Paddy Kelly and Quinlan Private, the master of putting together consortiums for ambitious hotel and property deals. Both expressed an interest in bidding for Jurys, but neither has shown a hand of cards yet. Kelly in particular has made it clear that he wants to be invited to the table by Jurys rather than making it there on his own steam.

Yesterday brought an addition to the Takeover Panel's list of potential suitors in the form of Sean Dunne. As the man who, mid-takeover period, agreed to pay €260 million to Jurys for five acres at Ballsbridge, Dunne's position was always going to be interesting. By spending a cool €205 million on shares after winning the tender, however, Dunne made more waves than anybody expected.

This, of course, brings us to the second race for Jurys - the battle for the prize properties it owns.

It was initially accepted that Dunne's share purchases were to be used as leverage against whoever might end up with control of the valuable lands in the hotel group's portfolio. He had, after all, made it clear that he wanted to buy the two acres that had not so far been put up for sale at Ballsbridge (the Berkeley Court site). It also made sense that he would want to secure his existing deal in the event of a takeover by owning some stock.

Yesterday, he was asked by the Takeover Panel to clarify his position. In the event, the clarification was limited in that Dunne said he had yet to decide how he would proceed. He might come up with an offer, but then again he might not. He might favour an offer by a third party, but then again he might not. Time will tell, with another statement due from Dunne "when appropriate".

The irony is that, while he could make life difficult for anybody that wants to take over the company, he himself has been forced to do all the running in securing meetings with the firm's other large shareholders.

He said yesterday that he had sought "further meetings" with substantial shareholders (presumably the Doyle and Beatty families, who own 30 per cent of Jurys) but did not give details on any rendezvous that might already have taken place.

Simon Reuben is in a similar fix, having made known his desire to meet the Doyle family but having no date to show for it.

In fact, all parties that have even a remote interest in taking over Jurys have one thing in common - the Doyle and Beatty families have a limited interest in engaging with them.

Meanwhile, the remainder of the Jurys board, which has had the unenviable task of steering a path through the mayhem, has tried with some success to move things ahead on its own. This week brought the announcement that the two acres Sean Dunne wants to buy at Ballsbridge would, along with the Montrose Hotel, be put up for sale. Further properties could follow, with the Burlington viewed by many as a strong candidate for disposal.

The Berkeley Court and Montrose properties will probably not go to tender like the earlier Ballsbridge site, thus reducing the field of bidders somewhat. Dunne will be there, of course, along with (presumably) Quinlan Private, Paddy Kelly and, perhaps, one of the State's largest developers, Liam Carroll.

With his stealthy arrival on the Jurys share register on Tuesday, Carroll will have caused some nervousness among all those involved. Known as much for his extreme wealth as his dislike of publicity, Carroll's intentions in building a stake that could yesterday have passed 10 per cent, remain a mystery.

What is clear, however, is that he has not become involved for the good of his health. A property man at heart, his only previous foray into public takeover battles came in 2002 when he won Dunloe Ewart, a property company, from Noel Smyth.

This time, the target is a hotel company that owns a lot of property - a different animal altogether. This suggests that Carroll is not interested in mounting a takeover but that, rather like Dunne, he is after land. Given that neither party is used to sharing, it seems at least one will have to lose.

In the background meanwhile are the Doyle and Beatty families, who have seen the value of their shares, and the extent of their influence, rocket over the summer months.

After all the jigs and the reels, the families are still the people who have most power in the whole game, regardless of which race you might be following. The question for betting men is: who will they favour?