Now USC it, now you don’t: what a cut will mean to you

The Budgetary dance of the seven veils has started early this year, with tantalising hints being given about tax cuts and spending increases. Minister Michael Noonan got specific in an interview with Pat Kenny on Newstalk on Thursday, promising a cut of “at least” one percentage point in USC.

This refers - we can presume - to the main 7 per cent USC rate applying on earnings between €17,576 and €70,044 (no, I don’t know why they don’t pick round numbers either).

So what does this mean? There have been clear indications for some time that a fair part of the budgetary tax measures would focus on USC, the much-hated levy introduced in 2011 by former finance minister Brian Lenihan to help plug the hole which had appeared in the public finances.

Taking 7 per cent on all income above €16,000 in the years 2011 to 2014, and lower amounts below this level, the USC has been a major hit on people’s pockets. For example in 2014 someone earning a salary of €50,000 would have paid just under €2,900 in USC, before they even started to calculated their income tax and PRSI bill.

The 2015 Budget cut this bill for our mythical €50,000 earner to around €2,650. A one point cut in the main 7 per cent USC rate next year would save this person another €324 next year. If the Minister cut the rate by 1.5 per cent, the gain would by €486 a year.

To get the maximum gain from a cut in the main USC rate, you would need to earn around €70,000 – someone on this income level saves around €524 per annum for every one point cut in the USC rate. To ensure that the gains are geared more towards those earning less, there are a variety of other changes which can be introduced in the Budget in the income tax band and the PRSI system along with the USC cut, as the Minister alluded to in his interview.

This focus on USC suggests that the actual income tax rates will not be cut in the budget - though changes in the standard rate band - the income levy at which you enter the higher rate - are likely. There are also likely to be measures aimed at lower earners either through the USC or income tax system.

Aiming at what the Government has identified as the “squeezed middle” is easier in next October’s Budget. There was complex moves in the last Budget, including a new 8 per cent rate on earnings over €70,044. This was introduced to limit the gains for higher earners. With this remaining in place, the cut in the 7 per cent rate will help the higher earners, too, though the cash benefits are capped. Each one point cut in worth the same €524 to a €150,000 earner as it is to someone on €70,000 - and some other clawbacks for higher earners remain possible.

Budget 2016 may, in tax terms, be straightforward enough and the USC looks set to be the delivery mechanism for much of the benefit.