Asian stocks advanced at the end of another volatile week fuelled by the Middle-East conflict. Attention also started to turn to Friday’s release of key US payrolls data.
MSCI’s benchmark Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5 per cent after the S&P 500 Index closed 0.1 per cent higher, reversing an earlier loss of 1.5 per cent.
Sentiment toward equities improved after oil prices eased off their highs following a report that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, having effectively shut it down since the start of the war.
“The improvement in US risk appetite has spilled over” into regional equities, said Hitoshi Asaoka, chief strategist at Asset Management One in Tokyo.
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“While oil prices may not fully return to previous levels, if they do partially normalize, there is considerable room for a rebound from a liquidity perspective.”
A number of Asian markets were shut for holidays Friday including Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia. US stock markets will also be closed for a holiday, though the government is still scheduled to publish a slate of economic data, including March nonfarm payrolls.
South Korea led regional equity gains with the benchmark Kospi rising 2.6 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 0.9 per cent. China’s CSI 300 Index reversed an earlier advance to drop 0.6 per cent.
Treasury futures were little changed in Asia with the cash market shut until US hours for a half day of trading. The dollar crept higher against most of its Group-of-10 peers.
Oil rallied above $110 a barrel Thursday after Trump vowed an escalation in the war in Iran over the coming weeks. West Texas Intermediate surged 11 per cent, while the global Brent benchmark settled near $109. Europe’s diesel futures benchmark climbed above $200 a barrel for the first time since 2022.
US stocks had started off Thursday deep in the red after a speech from Trump late Wednesday did little to reassure investors that the war in the Middle East was nearing a swift resolution, though he has previously set a two-to-three-week timeline for ending the conflict.
On Thursday, the president issued fresh threats on Iranian infrastructure in a bid to pressure Tehran in negotiations.
“With US payrolls coming up and a holiday ahead, markets are wary of what could happen over the weekend – especially the first weekend after,” Trump’s speech said Rina Oshimo, a senior strategist at Okasan Securities in Tokyo. “If attacks escalate or retaliations occur, oil prices could remain elevated for longer.”
The higher close for the S&P 500 on Thursday ran counter to a pattern of late-week selloffs that have hit the market ever since the war began, as nervous investors unwind positions that could be upended if weekend developments threaten to worsen the hit to the global economy.
“While assets gyrate on every new headline, until a clear agreement is achieved with a palatable plan for reopening the Strait, there’ll be downward pressure on economic growth and upward pressure on headline inflation,” said Max Gokhman, deputy CIO, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. “That spells indigestion for both equity and bond investors.”
Tesla shares fell after the company posted one of its worst sales quarters in years, missing Wall Street’s expectations, as it struggles to turn around its core business and navigate an increasingly challenged electric-vehicle market.
US labour-market data on Thursday gave mixed signals. A report from Challenger, Gray and Christmas showed a 25 per cent increase in job-cut announcements in March from the previous month. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell in the week through March 28th. – Bloomberg
