How will we manage?

NET RESULTS:A management group has looked into the crystal ball for 2018. Some of what it finds is wild and wacky but other predictions have a ring of truth, writes Karlin Lillington.

ROBOT WORKERS, microchip-enhanced brains, computers you speak to, terrorist cyber and infrastructure attacks that bring down the internet and travel hubs such as Heathrow and JFK - sounds like the latest Hollywood blockbuster.

Think middle managers instead. Such are the predictions for the business world of 2018 that trained managers will be expected to negotiate, according to a fascinating study released this month by the Chartered Management Institute in Britain.

Not their usual fare, I should think. And yes, it does sound wild and wacky, given that this is only a decade away.

The report does make business management sound a most exciting place to be.

Here was I with the stereotypical picture of boring management conformity, whereas in future your bank manager may be busily uploading new information packs to her embedded brain chips, heartily chastising the PC, bravely fending off terrorists and hackers, and sending the robot to the canteen for a tray of coffees (although maybe that will be outside the robotic union agreement).

Among 16 "possible futures" highlighted in the report are "the world under cyber attack" in which an unleashed virus shuts down much of the internet and systematically deletes business and private data.

"Common safety measures turn out to be insufficient" - well, that won't surprise many people even in 2008.

The report presents a picture of "the brain-enhanced world" in which "businesses routinely use microchips to enhance the abilities of their employees", but more chillingly, "some also use them to monitor and control their employees".

That may sound laughable - especially only a decade away - but the report soberly notes this "scenario may be closer than we think". And remember - these are managers making the predictions, not Daily Mail headline writers.

Among the possibilities I think are most likely to be coming are "the world digitally united", where "conversational user interfaces allow natural communication with computers and enable everybody to use and control technology with language, gestures and facial expressions".

There's a lot of research happening in these areas and the increasing power of desktop machines coupled with large and cheap memory means this is probably on the way eventually, if not by 2018.

I also found "the world run by robots" intriguing: "the first fully functioning robots possessing artificial intelligence are created and put into management positions".

Yes, yes, which of us cannot already name a manager who already seems to be a robot, as well as a manager we'd like to see replaced immediately by a mechanical substitute?

But more seriously, again, this is an area where I've talked to researchers and companies working in this area over the years, and it does indeed seem feasible that robots will begin to take on tasks that are too tedious, repetitious, or time-consuming for humans in the coming decades.

To be fair, most of these predictions are listed as less likely futures among a roster of likely changes that businesses need to plan for.

The institute said that more likely changes - which nonetheless could prove fairly trying for companies - include employees working in more flexible jobs that may not even have a traditional title to go along with a position; millions more people flexi-working from home due to environmental concerns and traffic congestion problems; and more employees floating between ad-hoc projects rather than working for a single employer, offering challenges for both employees and employers.

The report also predicted that more women will move into management positions; more powerful global conglomerates will form that sometimes will have greater might than national governments; but also, more small "virtual" companies with no fixed location that will address niche opportunities.

Taking all these possible scenarios and futures into consideration, the report concludes with a vision for the future - a picture of the future workplace.

More organisations are likely to be virtual, it says, with greater polarisation between the virtual organisations and the global conglomerates; organisations with a physical premises will have managers whose role increasingly involves creating a sense of calm and control, not rushing to address random problems.

Finally, the report concludes that there will be "a greater fluidity of skills and movement across different environments, with collaboration and political skills becoming critical".

Looking forward to that world? Or is it too terrifying to contemplate?

If you want to read more, have your robot download the report at http://tinyurl.com/29tqqj

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