Heaven is a place on earth

Five years ago was not another era; just think how close 1994 is. It was the year the Irish packed into Giants Stadium in New Jersey to watch the Republic beat Italy in the football World Cup; the year Bernie Malone beat off the challenge of Orla Guerin to become MEP; the year Ireland won the Eurovision song contest, again.

Braveheart was the box-office smash; Peter Sutherland was mooted as president of the European Commission; Emmet Stagg did not resign; Gerry Adams was ambushed on The Late Late Show; and the Ulster Unionists were insisting the IRA should use the word "permanent", and not "complete", in its ceasefire statement.

But if the Ireland implied in the ESRI Mid-Term Review 1999-2000 is nearer than we think, it will be a different place.

The average Dubliner will go in to work each day on the smooth, clean, efficient, regular and heavily-subsidised public transport system; perhaps switching from the DART to the new underground line at Pearse Station.

The Government will have no difficulty paying for this essential infrastructure, because it will still be running massive surpluses. In fact, with more and more people7 at work, and fewer young and old dependents, the exchequer will be in its best position ever.

With such a great transport service in place, no one will want to pay the electronic tolls levied on all the main roads into the city at peak times - or pay the carbon taxes recommended by the report.

Outside of urban areas, citizens will also be reaping the benefits of better infrastructure. The six-lane motorways - perhaps from Belfast to Cork and Limerick; Dublin to Galway, Sligo and Mayo; Drogheda to Derry and Donegal - will have encouraged far more investment in areas now lagging behind.

At work, Irish people will be doing different things; the ESRI says there will be a gradual shift from high-tech manufacturing to market services, especially internationally traded services. Our workplaces will be more flexible, more considerate of the family commitments of employees. Many will have subsidised creche facilities.

Above all, we will have lots and lots more cash to spend.

The first mention of disposable income in the report strikes a depressing note: "Because of the dangers the economy could face from overheating, we also assume that the next two budgets provide for under-indexation of the tax bands and allowances."

This is an obscure way of saying those trapped inside the faulty PAYE elevator can expect only paltry tax reductions next year and 2001.

But from 2002, we can expect "major cuts in taxation over a period of years".

Combined with pay rises, "real after-tax wage rates for those in employment could rise by around 3 per cent a year over the next decade".

So, the person on £15,000 now will be paid the equivalent of £17,400 in five years, and £20,200 by the year 2009. That is an extra £5,200 a year in terms of today's money; enough for a ritzy skiing holiday for the family, plus a second-hand car, or maybe a new kitchen, and throw in a flat-screen television.

Anyone on £25,000 today can expect an extra £4,000 a year by 2005, and £8,600 more by 2009. We're talking matching BMWs, weekends in Venice, designer clothes - and wouldn't the back garden look better with a heated swimming pool?

Anyone lucky enough to be earning £35,000 today will have an extra £6,000 annually to play with in five years time, and the equivalent of £12,000 more in 2009. With the long weekend coming up it would be nice to pop over to that wonderful little restaurant in Toulouse - but that would mean missing the Dublin Yacht Show, where it is so easy to pick up bargains . . .