Gulf crisis hits equities

With the predictable exception of the oil stocks, equities worldwide were hit at the end of last week by growing concern over the mounting crisis in the Gulf. The progress of any action or dialogue between the US, the UN and Iraq is likely to overshadow economic issues this week. The last time Saddam Hussein went to war with the West, shares suffered a setback, although some of the safe-haven currencies gained ground. A similar patter can be expected this time if the present war of words escalates. The only winner among equities will be the oil issues which will be bolstered by the likelihood of a decline in supply pushing crude prices back up from their present lows.

JS Corp: Shareholders in Jefferson Smurfit Corp and Stone Container Corp meet tomorrow to formally approve the merger of the two in an alliance which is widely perceived as being more beneficial to Stone than to JS Corp. That impression was not helped by woeful figures recently from Stone and by the falling price of stock in JS Corp which will see it pay a substantial premium to acquire the stake in the company owned by Morgan Stanley at a price agreed at the time of the merger negotiations.

Bula Resources: The long-promised extraordinary general meeting of Bula resources takes place today with shareholders finally getting a chance to question the board on the issues raised by the damning report of Governmentappointed inspector, Mr Lyndon MacCann.

Monday

Results: Berisford, British Steel (H1), Sidlaw Group, Unigate (H1), 600 Group (H1), Wardle Storeys.

A.G.M.: Bula Resources (e.g.m.).

Meetings: French and German finance ministers and central bank heads meet (Bonn); EU industry ministers (Brussels); Institute of Management Consultants in Ireland conference on `Change Management" (Confederation House, Baggot St, Dublin); Rutland Centre seminar on "Addiction in the Workplace An Overview, Signs and Symptoms" (Doyle Green Isle Hotel, Dublin); American Chamber of Commerce Ireland lunch addressed by Mr Marien Kakebeeke, managing director of Murphys Brewery Ireland (Silver Springs Hotel, Cork).

Indicators: Irish non-EU trade (Sep); US industrial production (Oct) and capacity utilisation (Oct); Japanese industrial production (Sep).

Others: Polish prime minister and trade delegation visits Dublin.

Tuesday

Results: BOC Group, Cirqual, Meyer International (H1), Northern Foods (H1), Portsmouth & Sunderland (H1), Suparule (H1), Vodafone Group (H1), Vosper Thornycroft (H1).

A.G.M.: JS Corp (e.g.m.), Raglan Properties (e.g.m.), Stone Container (e.g.m.), Tuskar Resources.

Meetings: US Federal Reserve open market committee meets; ICAI conference on developing your business through e-commerce (O'Reilly Hall, UCD).

Indicators: Irish consumer price index (Oct) and wholesale price index (Oct); British retail prices (Oct); US consumer prices (Oct), business inventories (Sep) and real earnings (Oct).

Others: IMF mission due to return to Russia; Institute of Advertising Practitioner in Ireland 1998 advertising effectiveness awards (RDS, Dublin); OECD publishes preliminary version of economic outlook.

Wednesday

Results: BG (Q3), Land Securities (H1), Meyer (H1), National Power (H1), Safeway (H1).

A.G.M.: Ardagh, Quantica (e.g.m.).

Meetings: Irish Centre for Commercial Law Studies seminar on "The Combined Code on Corporate Governance" (Commercial Law Centre, UCD).

Indicators: British retail sales (Oct); US international trade (Sep) and import/export prices (Oct).

Others: Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy introduces new public information video on the euro at publication of third edition of the National Changeover Plan; Publication of report of telecoms advisory body on e-commerce.

Thursday

Results: Glenmorangie (H1), Standard Life, Storehouse (H1), Scapa Group (H1), Siebe (H1), Tomkinsons.

A.G.M.: Barrat Developments, Blagden Manchester United, Upton & Southern.

Implications for Irish Business" (Moran's Red Cow Hotel, Dublin). ; Institute of European Affairs lecture on economics in series on "Ireland and Europe: Reflections on 25 Years of Membership; What Difference Has it Made?" (IEA headquarters, Dublin).

Indicators: Irish industrial employment (Jun); British building society new mortgage applications (Oct) and motor vehicle production (Oct); US housing starts (Oct) and Philadelphia Federal Survey (Nov); German ifo survey (Oct).

Friday

Results: Raglan Properties (H1), Viridian (H1).

A.G.M.: Pizza Express, Renishaw.

Meetings: Food, Drink and Tobacco Federation seminar on "The Impact of Globalisation on the Food and Drink Industry" (Conrad Hotel, Dublin).

Indicators: Irish retails sales index (Sep); British GDP (Q3); French industrial production (Sep) and trade balance (Sep).

Others: PricewaterhouseCoopers publishes 1999 Technology Forecast (RDS, Dublin).