The Republic will “absolutely” lose flights to the US if it fails to lift the Dublin Airport passenger cap, North American airlines told an Oireachtas committee on Wednesday.
Chris Sununu, chief executive of Airlines for America, told the Oirteachtas Joint Committee on Transport that US carriers had discussed the issue in the White House.
“There’s a very strong possibility that you will lose flights to New York, that you will lose flights to the US, absolutely,” he warned politicians.
Sununu was answering questions on likely retaliation if US airlines lose flight slots to Dublin as a result of the cap. His organisation says the cap breaches EU-US air travel treaties.
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Forcing Dublin Airport to slash passenger numbers would be economically “catastrophic”, Aer Lingus‘s chief executive is to tell TDs and Senators at the same committee meeting.
In a submission to the committee, Lynne Embleton says the loss of every one million passengers from Dublin costs €1.4 billion in lost spending, €320 million in taxes and up to 37,000 jobs.
Cutting passengers by 4.6 million to comply with a controversial 32-million limit would have a catastrophic impact on the economy, she says.
Aer Lingus is urging politicians to pass the Dublin Airport (Passenger Capacity) Bill 2026 quickly, allowing Minister for Transport Darragh O’Brien to scrap or amend the limit.
Any delay in passing the law “materially increases” the risk of forced cuts at Dublin Airport, she says.
[ Dublin Airport passenger cap sent air fares soaring, DAA to tell TDs ]
If the law is not enacted then a European court ruling due in months could force the Irish Aviation Authority to impose the limit when it decides in October on terms for allocating take-off and land slots to airlines for summer 2027.
This means a real risk of sharp reductions in numbers at Dublin in summer 2027, Embleton says.
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Fingal County Council will not have decided on a planning application from airport operator DAA to increase the limit to 40 million by that time, she also says.
For its part, Ryanair is to argue the passenger limit breaches EU-US air travel treaties under which each jurisdiction allows the other’s airlines free access to the other’s airspace and airports.
The airline is also to tell politicians that if the law is passed, then it could boost its Irish traffic to 35 million passengers from 23 million by 2035.
Ryanair also predicts Dublin Airport could reach 45 million passengers by 2035 if the law were passed.
This would create 10,500 jobs at the airport itself and 10,000 around the country in tourism businesses.
