It was former boxer Mike Tyson who famously said that “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”.
The new Makerfield MP Andy Burnham has a plan to remove British prime minister Keir Starmer from power. Starmer, meanwhile, has his own plan, however far-fetched it might seem, to foil the former Greater Manchester mayor who covets his job.
Now the Westminster circus is gathering to see if the two Labour rivals can do a deal in the coming days over Starmer’s exit, or if they must resort to political pugilism to sort it out. As it stands, Starmer’s jaw looks infinitely more vulnerable to a clatter than Burnham’s does.
The prime minister’s rapidly dwindling band of allies prefer yet another tortured sporting analogy to explain their plan to keep Burnham out of power for as long as possible. Privately, they liken it to the 110m hurdles, the track sprinting event where runners must leap over obstacles.
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They see Burnham as making a dash for Downing Street. So, the plan goes, they will keep throwing obstacles in his way, hoping to slow him down or, if he truly makes a mess of one of them, bring him crashing to the ground.
The first hurdle they have erected in front of Burnham is that he must not contemplate triggering a leadership election until after the July 30th byelection for Burnham’s former Manchester mayoralty. Starmer insists the Labour Party should “pull together” for it.
If Burnham leaps over that one easily enough, they will lob another into his path. Perhaps a cabinet job offer that they know Burnham would turn down, but about which they’d hope to distract and confuse him while doing so.
The next obstacle might be a crucial geopolitical matter or a summit that Starmer, they will argue, should not be disturbed from because it is too important. And so on.
Starmer continues to insist that he would fight any leadership contest triggered by Burnham or anyone else, including former health secretary Wes Streeting. The problem he now faces is that Burnham might just feel he has no choice but to call his bluff and start one.
Not even Starmer’s closest allies believe that he has the political capital or the popularity with Labour grassroots to prevail in a contest decided by party members. Doubly so if his opponent is Burnham, fresh from slaying Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in Makerfield.
Perhaps if the contest is upon the prime minister, Burnham’s allies feel, the incumbent will finally fold and negotiate an orderly exit to prevent anarchy and rancour in his party. Starmer could be given a month or two to tidy up loose ends and secure his legacy.
If Starmer refuses, then, well ... they might just have to punch him in the mouth.
