The polls in Israel have predicted a clear electoral defeat for Binyamin Netanyahu ever since the Hamas attack on October 7th, 2023.
However, following the military defeat of Hizbullah in Lebanon and the 12-day war against Iran in June, the gap between Mr Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing and religious parties and the opposition parties had narrowed.
The Gaza ceasefire and the release of all 20 living hostages last week have narrowed the gap further and the latest polls show the opposition bloc leading by only a few seats in the 120-seat Knesset parliament.
Although the polls indicate that the Netanyahu bloc can still not secure an overall majority, a hung parliament with the Arab parties holding the balance of power is now within his reach. In the event of the failure of either bloc to cobble together a majority of 61 parliamentarians (and right-wing opponents of Mr Netanyahu are reluctant to join a coalition with Arab parties) Mr Netanyahu would stay on as prime minister as leader of a transitional government.
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Marking the two-year anniversary of October 7th, a survey by the Israel Democracy Institute showed the overwhelming majority of Jewish Israelis (66 per cent) wanted the war to end but 45 per cent also wanted Mr Netanyahu to take responsibility and resign immediately. Another 19 per cent said he should step down once the war was over.
However, the US-brokered ceasefire a few days later was seen as a pivotal moment for Israel. The end of the war and the release of the hostages was considered by most Israelis an achievement beyond their wildest dreams.
Such an achievement naturally resulted in an increase in popularity for Mr Netanyahu but it will take a few weeks to see if the “Bibi-bump” will last. Sunday’s events, when two Israeli soldiers were killed in southern Gaza, may dampen the euphoria somewhat but this event has yet to be reflected in opinion polls.
Just before the living hostages were released massive boos rang out in Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square when US envoy Steve Witkoff mentioned Mr Netanyahu’s name but the sentiment of the crowd was not an accurate reflection of public mood.
In a poll immediately following the ceasefire, 33 per cent said Mr Netanyahu’s standing had improved in their eyes.
A Maariv newspaper poll on October 10, the day after the hostage release deal was struck, showed a slight rise in support for Mr Netanyahu , but 48 per cent still said now was the time for an election.
Political scientist Gayil Talshir from Jerusalem’s Hebrew University explains that most of the opponents of the ceasefire come from Mr Netanyahu’s right-wing base and therefore there is no surge in his popularity.
“71 per cent of the Israel public supports the Trump plan,” she said. ”They do not support Netanyahu, they support the Trump plan because they wanted, for the last two years, to bring the hostages back and to end the war in Gaza and to move on. This is what the Israeli public consistently wants for the last two years, this is not where Netanyahu’s government has led Israel.”
Elections in Israel must take place by 27 October, 2026 at the latest. The country has entered election year and Mr Netanyahu is considering the optimal date to go to the people.
He will not want an election too close to the next October 7th anniversary (always a painful reminder of his worst failure) and will likely try extend the Abraham Accords, attempting to normalise ties with Saudi Arabia, Indonesia or maybe even Syria, before choosing to go the polls.
[ Q&A: What remains of Hamas after two years of war?Opens in new window ]
