EuropeAnalysis

Polish fears over defence and security ahead of local elections

Surge in Poles buying Tenerife ‘safe havens’ even before warning from Polish prime minister Donald Tusk that Europe is in a ‘pre-war’ era

Poland's prime minister Donald Tusk: recent polls indicate his Civic Platform party has overtaken the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) for the first time in years with 33% support. Photograph: Omar Marques/Getty Images

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Derek Scally in Berlin
Thu Apr 4 2024 - 16:48

When Irish people buy property in Spain it’s for the sun and blue skies. But record numbers of Poles are snapping up Spanish apartments as a safe haven.

Tenerife-based property agent Gosia Andrzejewska says she noticed a sales surge from her homeland long before last week’s warning from Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, that Europe is in a “pre-war” era.

“Very often the reason to buy is fear of what is happening in Russia and Ukraine,” she told The Irish Times. “Clients are usually people who decided to sell their real estate in Poland and buy real estate in Spain. For now they are thinking about renting this property to tourists, but in case of any problems in Poland they are thinking about living in Tenerife.”

Official Spanish property sales figures – and Polish mortgage data – confirm a sales surge began in 2022, just as Russia invaded Ukraine. That year Poles overtook US buyers to make up 3.2 per cent of the market, up from 1.9 per cent the previous year. Last year sales rose again to 3.6 per cent, prompting jokes of a new Costa del Pole.

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Two decades after joining the EU Poland’s booming economy has translated into rising salaries which, adjusted for cost of living, put the country one place behind Spain on the OECD’s average earnings table.

In the past prosperous Polish buyers sought a second home in Spain as a retirement investment because prices were often lower than Poland’s Baltic coast with a longer sunny season.

Of Andrzejewska’s clients at Dream Home Tenerife, “most of them are, unfortunately, driven by fear”.

The rush for Spanish property is just one indicator of Polish nervousness towards Russia which hangs over local elections on Sunday. Just 10 days ago another Russian missile, ostensibly targeted at western Ukraine, veered into Polish territory. It was the third such incursion since February 2022, and local election debates have been dominated by worries that preparedness in case of war varies hugely from region to region.

A survey commissioned by the previous government and published last year revealed dedicated bunker space for fewer than one in 10 of the population. If the definition of shelter was widened to include underground train stations and tunnels, the total capacity grew to 50 million – in a country with a population of 37 million.

Poland’s second city Krakow says it can house just 10 per cent of its population in bunkers and other suitable structures. That has prompted debate about repurposing local salt mines, including the historic Wieliczka mine, a tourist attraction with underground chapels and chandeliers.

“We are all asking what would happen if, God forbid, Russia moves further into Ukraine,” said Lukasz Gibala, a liberal-Green candidate for mayor in Krakow, in a recent radio debate.

Further north in Warsaw city authorities say they have enough space in bunkers, underground car parks and the metro for 3.5 million people – nearly twice the capital’s population.

City mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, hoping for re-election on Sunday, says there is no such thing as being overprepared. Along with other mayors he has signed Warsaw up to a €27 million security plan between local government and the defence ministry. As well as money to renovate bunkers, the programme includes an annual safety training week for all citizens.

“Security is a basic right and we have to be prepared for everything,” said Trzaskowski, presenting the plan last month alongside Poland’s defence minister Wladyszlaw Kosiniak-Kamysz.

The minister said no one wanted to alarm the public but Ukraine would “not have survived the first weeks of war if it had not been for all of society getting involved”.

“All of us have a responsibility,” said Kosiniak-Kamysz, “with the local community extremely important in building civil defence.”

Sunday’s elections for thousands of councillor and mayoral posts were postponed from last October to avoid a clash with national elections. They represent the first test of Polish public mood since the parliamentary poll saw Tusk take office in December with his centrist-liberal coalition.

Recent polls indicate Tusk’s Civic Platform has overtaken the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) for the first time in years with 33 per cent support. Growing disagreements with his coalition partners – in particular on abortion and access to the morning-after pill – appear unlikely to benefit the PiS. After losing power after two terms last October, its voter support is running at about 30 per cent – down from 34 per cent in the 2018 local elections.

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