Donald Trump’s State of the Union address had little to say about Europe or China. That’s good news for them.
What Trump’s speech means for the world
Donald Trump was well over an hour into the longest State of the Union address in history before he turned his gaze away from domestic politics and on to foreign policy. Even then, his global survey was mostly embedded within a long, sentimental passage about the United States military, a staple of these speeches under presidents from both parties.
He began by listing the eight wars he claims to have ended, some of which are still going on, and reaffirmed his determination to bring peace to Ukraine after four years of war. He noted that all US arms shipments to Kyiv are now sent through Nato and paid for by the Europeans, praising himself for pushing them to increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP.
He had nothing more to say about America’s European allies, which was good news for them. After Marco Rubio’s speech in Munich this month and JD Vance’s last year, they will have been relieved at being spared another lecture on European decadence and an endorsement of far-right parties.
READ MORE
Trump talked up the US military operation that abducted Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, describing the country as “our new friend and partner”. His administration was working closely with Venezuela’s new president, Delcy Rodríguez, (until a few weeks ago Maduro’s deputy) “to unleash extraordinary economic gains for both of our countries and to bring new hope to those who have suffered so terribly”.
Trump’s first mention of Venezuela was in the context of a boast about how low gasoline prices had fallen in the US since he returned to the White House. This is a development that may be about to face a challenge of his own making if the president launches a military attack on Iran.
The US has built up its biggest force in the Middle East since 2003 in preparation for a possible attack if talks with Iran in Geneva tomorrow fail to produce an agreement. Trump went into some detail in his State of the Union speech on Washington’s demands, starting with a commitment by Tehran never to develop a nuclear weapon.
Iran has always said it does not wish to develop a nuclear weapon and that it is only seeking to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes as permitted by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Trump claimed in his speech that last June’s joint US operation with Israel obliterated Iran’s nuclear weapons programme but that it had now started up again.
“We wiped it out and they want to start all over again. And are at this moment again pursuing their sinister ambitions,” he said.
But Trump also mentioned Iran’s brutal crackdown on antigovernment protests and spoke about missiles that could threaten Europe and US bases overseas. Tehran has made clear that, although it wants to make a nuclear deal, it will not bargain away the ballistic missiles it views as essential to its defence.
Perhaps the most remarkable omission from the speech was any mention of China, which has featured as America’s chief rival and adversary in almost every State of the Union speech over the past decade. Trump will visit China at the end of next month and he was evidently keen to avoid saying anything that could queer the pitch ahead of his trip.
His silence will make Washington’s already uneasy China hawks more anxious than ever about Trump’s approach to negotiations with Xi Jinping and the prospect of a shift towards a less hostile relationship with Beijing. Last week’s US Supreme Court ruling striking down some of Trump’s tariffs strengthened Xi’s hand in their talks and the US president’s reticence last night suggests that he knows it.
Please let me know what you think and send your comments, thoughts or suggestions for topics you would like to see covered to denis.globalbriefing@irishtimes.com
