North Korea is getting ready for a big party congress. It could reveal a lot about Kim Jong-un’s plans.
All eyes on Pyongyang
Last week saw elections to the politburo of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party of Korea, a sign that its ninth, five-yearly congress is around the corner and could be held as early as next week. The party congress typically sets out Pyongyang’s military and political strategy and this year’s will be watched closely for signs of Kim Jong-un’s strategic intentions.
North Korea has expanded its nuclear arsenal in recent years, introducing new intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear-armed cruise missiles and submarine-based systems. But military analysts believe that the party congress could signal a shift in emphasis towards strengthening conventional forces while continuing to upgrade the country’s nuclear capability.
North Korean forces have been fighting alongside Russian forces on the border with Ukraine since 2024, reportedly suffering heavy casualties but also gaining valuable combat experience. North Korean officers have had an opportunity to observe at first hand the conduct of modern warfare on the world’s most advanced battlefield, and the decisive role played by drones and artillery.
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The congress could also formalise Kim’s abandonment of Pyongyang’s aspiration to unite the Korean peninsula and his identification of South Korea as a “hostile state”. Party rules still refer to peaceful reunification and national unity and a formal embrace of the concept of two hostile states could require a change in the country’s constitution.
South Korea’s president, Lee Jae Myung, said last week that his country’s ultimate goal of national unity was not an immediate priority. He said that avoiding conflict and pursuing peaceful coexistence with the North should come first.
“Unification feels like a distant prospect at the moment. We would be fortunate simply to avoid a war. Setting that aside for now, we must do everything possible to move toward a situation in which peaceful coexistence is achievable,” he said.
Lee said that the United States could play an important role in easing tensions on the peninsula, adding that Donald Trump’s unconventional personality could be helpful. Trump met Kim a number of times during his first term in the White House before negotiations collapsed at a summit in Hanoi in 2019.
The US president has floated the idea of fresh talks, hinting that he could abandon Washington’s demand that Pyongyang gives up all its nuclear weapons and describing North Korea a number of times as a nuclear power. Lee has also signalled a shift away from Seoul’s demand for full denuclearisation, calling for a practical, step-by-step approach to the nuclear issue.
“The most realistic first step would be a halt, paired with limited compensation, while keeping the ultimate goal intact. The next stage would be nuclear arms reduction, or negotiations on reducing nuclear capabilities,” he said.
“Over the longer term, we should work toward denuclearisation.”
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