Climate progress: key indicators confirm ‘this does not go far enough, fast enough’

Three reports issued within 24 hours of each other this week provide exact indications of where the world is right now in addressing the climate crisis and on reducing carbon emissions.

These indicators of progress have no truck with promises by countries to get their houses in order; emission levels don’t lie – and they provide accurate indication of what the world is facing when it comes to temperature. The findings will be ringing alarms bells as the countries convene at Cop27 next month.

The 2022 UN Environment Programme (UNEP) “emissions gap” report says rapid transformation of societies and economies is the now only remaining option as the world is still falling far short of the Paris climate goals, with no credible pathway to ensuring global temperature rise keeps to within a critical 1.5 degrees.

What is known as the UN synthesis report looks at national plans is equally frank; pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions will lead to global heating of 2.5 degrees this century, a level that would condemn the world to catastrophic climate breakdown.

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Atmospheric levels of all three major greenhouse gases – nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane – have reached record highs, according to a study by the World Meteorological Organization, which its scientists say means the world is “heading in the wrong direction”.

Only an urgent system-wide transformation can avoid an accelerating climate disaster, the UNEP declares.

It is not all gloom, however, as the report looks at how to deliver this transformation through action in the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems.

Despite a call for strengthened nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for 2030, progress since Cop26 in Glasgow last year has been woefully inadequate. Only a handful of countries have strengthened their commitments substantially in the past year, despite having promised to do so. Deeper cuts are needed to limit temperature rises to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, which would avoid the worst ravages of extreme weather.

NDCs submitted since Cop26 take only 0.5 gigatonnes of CO² equivalent greenhouse gas emissions, less than 1 per cent, off projected global emissions in 2030, the UNEP finds. This lack of progress leaves the world on a path towards a temperature rise far above the critical Paris Agreement goal of well below 2 degrees, and preferably 1.5 degrees.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change synthesis report calculated the plans submitted by governments would lead to a temperature rise of between 2.1 and 2.9 degrees, with the best estimate about 2.5 degrees. This represents a “marginal” improvement on the 2.7 degree temperature rise that would have followed from the commitments made at Glasgow.

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The plans for emissions cuts submitted by countries in Glasgow were inadequate to meet the 1.5-degree goal so they agreed a “ratchet” mechanism to toughen their targets year-on-year. However, few governments have updated their plans on emissions in line with the targeted 1.5 degrees.

Implementation of all NDCs plus net-zero commitments made by an increasing number of countries point to a 1.8 degree increase, the emissions gap report says. “However, this scenario is not credible, based on the discrepancy between current emissions, near-term NDC targets and long-term net-zero targets.”

The UNFCCC concludes: “This does not go far enough, fast enough. This is nowhere near the scale of reductions required to put us on track to 1.5 degrees. National governments must set new goals now and implement them in the next eight years.”

How to get on track

To get on track to meet the Paris Agreement goal, the world needs to reduce greenhouse gases by unprecedented levels over the next eight years, because emissions must continue to decline rapidly after 2030 “to avoid exhausting the remaining atmospheric carbon budget”. Such massive cuts require a large-scale, rapid and systemic transformation across the globe.

The UNEP explores the required actions in electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems.

Even if the transformation fails to fully bridge the 2030 emissions gap, every fraction of a degree matters. Launching the transformation is necessary to move towards a carbon-neutral future that will allow us to limit global warming and deliver other social and environmental benefits, such as clean air, green jobs and universal energy access.

The transformation towards zero emissions in electricity supply, industry, transportation and buildings is under way but needs to move much faster. Electricity supply is most advanced, as costs of renewable electricity for solar and wind have fallen, but obstacles exist – including ensuring a just transition and universal energy access.

For buildings, currently available technologies need to be fully applied. For industry and transport, zero-emission technology needs to be further developed and deployed.

The portfolio of “key actions” include:

· Avoiding lock-in of new fossil fuel-intensive infrastructure;

· Further advancing zero-carbon technologies, market structures and planning for a just transformation;

· Applying zero-emission technology and behavioural changes to sustain reductions to reach zero emissions.

Food system overhaul

Food systems, accounting for one third of all emissions, can be reformed to deliver rapid and lasting cuts including demand-side dietary change, tackling food waste, protection of natural ecosystems, improvements in food production at the farm level and decarbonisation of food supply chains.

This can reduce 2050 food systems emissions to about a third of current levels, as opposed to emissions almost doubling if current practices remain in place, it finds.

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Governments can facilitate transformation by reforming subsidies and tax schemes, the UNEP says. The private sector can reduce food loss and waste, use renewable energy and develop novel foods that cut down carbon emissions. Individual citizens can change their lifestyles to consume food for environmental sustainability and carbon reduction.

Making financial system fit for purpose

The financial system must overcome internal and external constraints to become a critical enabler of transformation across all sectors, it suggests, and recommends six approaches to be carried out simultaneously:

• Make financial markets more efficient “through taxonomies and transparency”;

• Introduce carbon pricing, such as taxes or cap-and-trade systems;

• “Nudge financial behaviour” through public policy interventions, taxes, spending and regulations;

• Create markets for low-carbon technology, shifting financial flows, stimulating innovation and helping to set standards;

• Mobilise central banks which are increasingly interested in addressing the climate crisis, but more concrete action on regulations is needed;

• Set up climate “clubs” of co-operating countries, cross-border finance initiatives and just transformation partnerships, which can alter policy norms and change the course of finance through credible financial commitment devices, such as sovereign guarantees.

Energy transition gaining momentum

Amid a plethora of reports being issued in advance of Cop27, the International Energy Agency (IEA) provides indication of transformation already under way. It indicates global carbon emissions from energy will peak in 2025 thanks to massively increased spending by governments on clean fuels in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Spending on clean energy in response to the crisis would mark a “historic turning point” in the transition away from fossil fuels, the IEA predicts in its annual review.

Some analysts have questioned whether fears over energy security could lead to use of fossil fuels for longer, slowing the world’s race to net zero carbon emissions, as some countries pledge to encourage fossil fuel extraction to try to ease prices.

However, Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director and one of the world’s most influential energy economists, said the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion “is in fact going to accelerate the clean energy transition”.

The IEA said planned investments in green energy in response to the crisis meant that – for the first time – government policies would lead to demand for polluting fossil fuels peaking this decade. The agency cited notable contributions from the US Inflation Reduction Act, the EU’s emissions reduction package, and actions by Japan, South Korea, China and India.