ENGLAND v NEW ZEALAND:EVEN ENGLAND'S most faithful supporters are braced today for another painful thrashing from the cane-swishing All Blacks and their headmasterly coach, Graham Henry. By nightfall it is possible New Zealand will have completed a grand slam tour of Britain and Ireland without conceding a single try in four games.
It is Martin Johnson's unenviable task, regardless of this afternoon's result, to make them sweat a little bit more next time.
Blaming Johnson at this premature stage is absurd. He took the job because he could not stomach the utter shambles he witnessed in the World Cup pool game against South Africa last autumn or the Six Nations debacle at Murrayfield. As Sean Fitzpatrick, the former All Black great, pointed out this week, England's new manager "wouldn't have gone in with his eyes closed".
Unfortunately for Johnson, this autumn's results could delay that recovery mission for longer than he might have expected. Here are some of the major issues confronting him . . .
1 England's forwards
THERE IS no disgrace in standing up in front of everyone and admitting it. "Hi, my name's Martin and I'm having nightmares about my front five."
He would only be saying what many in senior positions at Twickenham already know. For decades you knew where you were with an English pack, but the removal of the maul as a major source of influence has exposed some uncomfortable truths.
Phil Vickery and Simon Shaw have been lionhearts for club and country but their successors are only slowly grasping the new, mobile realities of Test life. Andrew Sheridan and Matt Stevens have not been consistently influential and the valiant Lee Mears, Tim Payne and Steve Borthwick do not frighten the Southern Hemisphere. Johnson is allowed to make five changes to his elite squad in the new year; there is a case for switching up to 10.
2 Is Johnno a good selector?
IT IS a bit like asking if Elton John can pick out a tune. If the answer is no, we might as well all give up. His first stabs at pinning the tail on the donkey have, quite rightly, been based on giving new players a decent run. No problem there, as long as you pick the right guys in the first place. So will he trust the evidence of his eyes and decide the cream of the recent age-group crop - Nathan Catt, Alex Corbisiero, Joe Simpson, Alex Goode and Noah Cato - are not just good long-term prospects but capable of offering something now?
As Eddie O'Sullivan found in Ireland, remaining too faithful creates problems eventually; the incumbents get too cosy, and those outside the inner circle get hacked off. What has he really learned about Dylan Hartley this autumn? And didn't Delon Armitage, Ugo Monye and Easter all start outside the elite player squad? Common sense is a vital trait in good selectors but so is gut instinct. Johnson needs to be a bit bolder.
3 Leadership
IT IS less a matter of who wears the armband than who sets the tone. England have designated leaders other than Borthwick - Jamie Noon, Nick Easter, Phil Vickery and either Danny Cipriani or Toby Flood - but the inclusion of Michael Lipman this week was revealing. England need to be spikier and Johnson does not seem convinced Tom Rees is nasty enough.
Every serious Test pack has always had a no-nonsense hard man - Bakkies Botha, Ali Williams, Johnson himself - and the likes of Danny Grewcock and Ronnie Regan cannot be wheeled out any longer.
Maybe the academies are producing too many gym-honed athletes at the expense of graduates from the university of life? If so, Johnno should send one or two teenage wannabes off to New Zealand for six months. They will discover, as he did, that real rugby men are not reared on protein shakes and ice baths alone.
4 Coaching
AS JOHNSON has pointed out, he is a manager, not a coach. That means his support coaches have to deliver. Johnson must ask whether his squad have access to world-class coaches in every area, fitness and kicking included. Brian Ashton's reign unravelled, in the end, because head coach, assistants and players were not on the same wavelength; the same cannot be allowed to happen again.
As England seek to go down a more expansive route, the loyal John Wells resembles a meat lover who has just been asked to cook vegetarian. Brian Smith is desperate for quick ball to nourish his backs rather than static plodding around the sides of rucks. When Dewi Morris uses the word "antediluvian" you know you've got a problem.
5 Conditioning
PEOPLE RECKON the England back line is too small; it turns out only Riki Flutey weighed less than the Springbok player he was marking last weekend. More vital is making sure the whole side punch their weight on big occasions and have sufficient energy to make the correct decisions late in games. England have scored one solitary penalty in 80 minutes of second-half rugby against Australia and South Africa. The really good sides crank it up in the final quarter, even if they are behind.
6 Forward planning
LUCK ALWAYS plays a part, whoever the manager is. Nick Abendanon, James Simpson-Daniel, Jonny Wilkinson, Lewis Moody, Luke Narraway, Dan Ward-Smith . . . injuries can scupper the best-laid plans. Johnson needs to rise above all that and start jabbing his finger on the desk of RFU chief executive Francis Baron, stressing that England should never again stage such a murderous autumn schedule.
He should then demand extra resources to take an enlarged squad on next summer's tour to Argentina. It runs concurrently with the Lions and is an ideal chance to fine-tune his squad.
Guardian Service
:quality(70)/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/irishtimes/YVIRIOZQ35EWRPZXR27KGMO6YU.png)