THE RACE FOR SOUTH AFRICA: THOSE BURDENED in life with a suspicious nature raised an eyebrow when Fifa announced last week, somewhat belatedly, that the draw for the World Cup qualifying play-offs would not, as initially indicated, be open – rather, it would be based on the eight competing countries' world rankings.
The eyebrow raisers’ hunch was that Fifa browsed through the nine European qualifying groups and noted, with horror, that at least a couple of the biggest footballing nations could end up in the play-offs – and an open draw could have the catastrophic consequence of pitting them against each other.
A World Cup finals without, say, France or Germany or Portugal (or, more critically, World Player of the Year Cristiano Ronaldo), with all the ensuing nasty financial implications, was too much to bear, so a seeded draw it is. That’s the ugly allegation anyway.
Were they right to be so, allegedly, concerned? Certainly. Should Germany, for example, lose to Russia in Moscow tonight, then, unless the Russians fail to beat bottom-of-the-group Azerbaijan next Wednesday, the Germans will end up in the play-offs.
And unless Serbia fail to win either of their final two games, at home to Romania and away to Lithuania, France, who play Brian Kerr’s Faroe Islands tonight, will also find themselves in the play-offs. Although: Fifa warned the Serbs yesterday that, following crowd trouble during three of their group games, if there were any more incidents in their remaining fixtures they could be docked points. The Serbs, then, will trust that their supporters will be on their best behaviour, and that no agent provocateur arrives from Paris.
Portugal’s hopes of winning their group also look slim – indeed, there remains a significant risk they won’t even finish second and, so, will even miss out on the play-offs. Tonight, they must do what they have failed to do in their group: win at home. A victory over Hungary would keep them afloat, with a home game against group also-rans Malta to come on Wednesday. Even then, though, other results could finish them off, with Denmark and Sweden well placed to fill the top places in the group.
Greece, the 2004 European champions, are also struggling to make it to South Africa, although a win tonight over Latvia, with whom they are level on points behind Switzerland, along with a defeat of Luxembourg at home on Wednesday would, at least, guarantee a place in the play-offs. The Swiss need four points from their last two games – away to Luxembourg and at home to Israel – to be certain of winning the group.
In Group Three a draw tonight at home to Slovenia would secure Slovakia their first trip to the World Cup finals. A defeat, though, would make for an anxious conclusion to the campaign for the group leaders on Wednesday when they must travel to Poland while Slovenia play point-less San Marino.
Mathematically, Northern Ireland can still finish second, but they would need San Marino (scored one, conceded 44) to beat Slovenia. The Czech Republic and Poland, who meet in Prague tonight, still have a chance of making the play-offs, but if those hopes are to remain realistic they could do without Slovenia beating Slovakia.
In Groups Five and Six, where Spain and England have already qualified, only the runners-up spots are still to be sealed. A year ago Bosnia-Herzegovina beat Estonia 7-0 at home – if they can beat them again tonight in Tallinn, even by a single goal, they will book their place in the play-offs, ending the hopes of Turkey, their only rivals for second place behind Spain.
Croatia and Ukraine, meanwhile, are battling it out to finish as runners-up to England in Group Six. If both countries, as anticipated, win their final games on Wednesday, away to Kazakhstan and Andorra respectively, then Ukraine, two points behind Croatia, must beat England tonight.
Group Nine, which had just five teams, is already decided, with winners Netherlands through to the finals and runners-up Norway waiting to see if their points’ tally will be enough to put them in the top eight of the ranking for the second-placed teams and earn them a place in the play-offs.
THE QUALIFICATION RACE
World Cup 2010: The qualifiers so far
Africa
South Africa (hosts), Ghana.
Asia
Australia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea.
Europe
Netherlands, England, Spain.
South America
Brazil, Paraguay.
The tournament runs from June 11th until July 11th next year.
European Zone
How they stand
Group 1
Can qualify automatically: Denmark, Sweden, Portugal, Hungary.
Can reach play-offs: Denmark, Sweden, Portugal, Hungary.
Group 2
Can qualify automatically: Switzerland, Greece and Latvia.
Can reach play-off: Switzerland, Greece, Latvia, Israel.
Group 3
Can qualify automatically: Slovakia, Slovenia.
Can reach play-off: Slovakia, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Czech Republic, Poland.
Group 4
Can qualify automatically: Germany, Russia.
Can reach play-off: Germany, Russia.
Group 5
Qualified: Spain.
Can reach play-off: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Turkey.
Group 6
Qualified: England.
Can reach play-off: Croatia, Ukraine.
Group 7
Can qualify automatically: Serbia, France.
Can reach play-off: Serbia, France, Austria, Lithuania, Romania.
Group 9:
Qualified: Holland.
Can reach play-off: Norway.
