The Ireland midfield can neuter the Scotland backrow by stopping them on the gain line

ENGLAND MAKE six changes. Wales follow suit with five and Italy with four. France make one change for their Grand Slam encounter. But like Scotland, Ireland select the same team two weeks running. With Paddy O’Brien’s interpretations of the breakdown Irish rugby is consistency in a world gone mad!

Everybody is focusing on the timing and the disadvantages associated with the rule and how South African Jonathan Kaplan will referee tomorrow but are there any advantages? Under Declan Kidney Ireland’s style of play is being altered gradually. We continue to kick away the ball and offer possession to the opposition, as we did against England and Wales. Considering the quality of players there has to be a reason for this.

French fullback Clement Poitrenaud plays his way, the Gallic way, regardless of the rules. Ireland play very much conscious of the rules. The role of the Jackal, Heinrich Brüssow, in the Lions Test series and again in the autumn has put the fear of God into all coaches. The French have always ignored the dangers; but not Ireland.

Yes we have many Jackals tomorrow, David Wallace, Brian O’Driscoll and Gordon D’Arcy, who will not have time in one week to re-educate themselves. So I expect some awkward Kaplan interventions. Unfortunately we can’t clone Poitrenaud so the new rule should give both Geordan Murphy and Rob Kearney the confidence to run back possession.

The Scots have a long history of rucking at grass height. Ireland hit more rucks than any other Six Nations team. In possession the new law will suit both Scotland and Ireland. But the Scots can be very destructive in this area. They managed to turn England over at the breakdown by typical weight of numbers, body height and counter-rucking. Ireland will have to commit numbers to secure their ball.

Regardless of the table Scotland have an excellent backrow and a good secondrow (even without injured Nathan Hines). And any frontrow that boasts Euan Murray, Ross Ford and Allan Jacobsen would be pretty confident.

Scotland’s apparent advantage in the scrum can be neutralised somewhat by refusal to crouch, touch, pause and engage in the time allotted. Thus far Ireland have had 10 scrums and won all of them. That said, they’ll need a plan B if all’s not going well. Disrupting the tempo of Scotland’s hit would be a good start.

The lineout will continue tomorrow to provide outstanding ball. With Gert Smal’s arrival the Ireland lineout is now world class in its variety, speed over the ground and accuracy from the touchline. The Scottish lineout is far superior to Wales’ and will prove a major challenge but Ross Ford suffers from the yips.

In fact, the Scots have two main priorities at lineout time. The first, due to Ford, is simply to get the ball back. To do this they target the front of the lineout. Inside their 22 they will shorten the lineout and hit whoever’s at the front. Jim Hamilton is a key source on the five-metre line, especially inside their 22. Donncha O’Callaghan will reap the rewards.

As the lineout moves towards the middle of the pitch Ford becomes a little more adventurous, targeting the middle. Then out of nowhere Ford will peg it out over the tail to an on-running backrow forward; very old school. He is not confident so I expect plenty flat at two.

The second priority for the Scottish lineout is to launch 16½ stone centre Graeme Morrison into the heart of the Ireland defence. The Glasgow Killer Bs, Johnnie Beattie, John Barclay and Kelly Brown, are coming to town and with them an opportunity to damage Ireland. Morrison is key to their success. As the Ireland backrow discovered in Paris going backwards is very tough.

The Bs have become accustomed to tracking Scottish line brakes. The Ireland midfield will need to stop them on the gain line. If they can, the Scottish backrow will be neutered. In defensive lineouts the Scots do contest in the air. They also stack Hamilton and props at the tail, with scrumhalf Chris Cusiter defending the channel from short lineouts. Ireland should target the gap between both.

So what sort of a game will we have? The obvious battle is in the backrow, where they are in fantastic form. The talisman without doubt and at number eight, Beattie is catching up on Jamie Heaslip and Imanol Harinordoquy.

Scotland are miles behind Ireland on the table with just one point from their four matches. However they have conceded only eight points more than Ireland, which means their defence is solid. It is their lack of scoring that has neutered them. Ireland’s defence, holding its shape under waves of Welsh men, will stand to them tomorrow.

Scotland create bucket loads of opportunities but white-line fever is killing them. They have lots of phases, lots of line breaks and lots of go-forward quality ball. With the mobility of their backrow they will maximise the work of Nick De Luca and especially Morrison. There big problem is close to the opposition’s line.

Their great crime is not maximising the space created from the initial break. If they remain patient and in shape near the Ireland line they will cause problems. Suffice to say if Ronan O’Gara was at 10 for the Scots it would be very close. Ultimately Scotland even with the Killer Bs are used to losing and Ireland with the Killer Cs, culture, cutting edge and confidence, are the converse.