Title hopes spring Eternal

Rome having been the seasonal launching pad for Ireland's last two visits to the Eternal City, an end-of-campaign trek is eminently preferable. The sun has shone constantly for two days, the temperatures have been in the 20s (with only a slight dip yesterday) and the estimated 15,000-plus bank holiday invasion have ensured the Visas have been taking a pounding in the designer-label haven of Via del Corso and its narrow cobblestoned arteries. Oh yes, and there's a Six Nations title up for grabs

Amid the Gucci, Prada, Versace and Giorgio Armani bags, the Irish masses seem acutely conscious of who they're mixing with, and so the green jerseys have been mostly kept back until today. Even so, the well-heeled, immaculately presented Romans look agog, and there was no difficulty recognising the nationality of the two inebriated 30-year-olds rescued from the Tiber at 2am on Thursday night by the fire brigade.

Further evidence that Ireland are becoming the new Munster is the rumour that Bono may be in attendance at the Stadio Flaminio today.

The sense of anticipation is acute. The title door having been eased ajar by England's win over France, Brian O'Driscoll was yesterday practically salivating at the thought of the St Patrick's Day invasion of the Eternal city and the prospect of playing in such springlike weather when speaking at the team's luxurious base, the Westin Excelsior.
"If the game was being played today it would be played in incredible conditions, and hopefully it'll be similar tomorrow, with a massive following. You want to play in the most pressurised situations, in front of the biggest crowds, with as much support as you possibly can and with something to play for. And I guess that's all thrown into the equation . . . and that's what makes it so exciting."

Reckoning a warm sun on a good, hard, dry track suits both his and the team's game, O'Driscoll was talking for thousands when he observed: "You get mixtures in weather conditions in this competition, so it's nice to come to Rome late in the competition when you're all but guaranteed good weather."

All is set fair then, for a big Irish finale to the RBS Six Nations. The title may well prove beyond reach, simply because the French will kick-off shortly after the conclusion of Ireland's game and will know exactly what their target is.

Ireland have to win and if both sides confirm favouritism then their winning margin must be five points' greater. In other words, even if Ireland win by, say, 13 (which is the bookies' handicap), the French would know a nine-point winning margin would see them retain the title before they host the World Cup.

Given such a critical disadvantage, a first title may well prove beyond reach, although even knowing their target, especially given a significant enough Irish win, could generate pressure in French minds. By the same token, Ireland cannot afford to be too distracted by such thoughts.

Title or no title, as with their Six Nations rivals, this is Ireland's last competitive match before the World Cup and therefore their last chance to throw down a marker for that autumn tournament. A fifth match in seven weeks is akin, though less intense, to a quarter-final of the World Cup, so it will tell us much as to how genuine Ireland's World Cup credentials are.

Which brings up the question: which Irish team will turn up today?

Viewed coldly, and broken down into eight halves, it might reasonably be stated that Ireland have played up to their own standards of last autumn in three of the eight periods, the second against France and both against England. Ireland simply have to match the physical intensity of the efforts in those highs, scrum hard, ruck and protect recycled ball with much greater intensity and be far, far more precise with the ball than they were in Murrayfield a week ago.

In the worrying absence of Paul O'Connell, so often the man leading the charge off restarts or with ball in hand, the likes of Donncha O'Callaghan and the backrowers will have to up their abrasiveness to meet an ultra-physical Italian pack head on.

For all the potency of Gordon D'Arcy and Brian O'Driscoll especially, handling errors, whether spilling the ball or passing poorly, missed penalties to touch and wrong decision-making, be it holding onto the ball too long or not passing/offloading, will not only undermine their good approach work, it will let Italy off the hook.

In short, Ireland cannot be as profligate with their line breaks, or repeat the high error count of a week ago, and beat these buoyant Italians, who are a stronger, more purposeful and more confident side than the Scots.

O'Sullivan yesterday gave another insight into how well Pierre Berbizier has coached these current Azzurri.

"Of the teams we've played this year, Italy have the biggest variety of set plays in their playbook, which makes them very unpredictable. So they're well-organised and well-coached. They know exactly what they're doing.

"They've got a very experienced team and it's a settled side."

Even so, they are without the hugely influential Andrea Lo Cicero, Martin Castrogiovanni and the versatile Mauro Bergamasco, which has obliged the astute Berbizier to abandon his ploy of having an entire front row on a five-two bench.

They also look a little flighty defensively at 10, left wing and fullback and have a newly constructed midfield, which admittedly may not be as porous as the Scottish midfield.

They do employ more of a rush defence, of the kind that can discommode a flatly aligned Irish back line, though if Ireland occasionally play with more depth and are more accurate and cute in bringing in the outside three, they could find more space out wide. As they have shown in previous meetings, Italy can spoil and make it a dogfight.

Against that, they can become more easily frustrated, so when Ireland resort to Plan B, playing territory, keeping possession, using their maul, the three-pointers should become available for the in-form and accurate Ronan O'Gara.
If Ireland employ this tactical mix, and most of all rediscover their physical intensity and accuracy, the celebrating in the Roman sun will extend long into the night.

Last five meetings: 2003 - Italy 13 Ireland 37; Ireland 61 Italy 6; 2004 - Ireland 19 Italy 3; 2005 - Italy 17 Ireland 28; 2006 - Ireland 26 Italy 10.
Betting (Paddy Power): 9/2 Italy, 25/1 Draw, 1/8 Ireland. Handicap odds (= Italy +13pts) 10/11 Italy, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.
Forecast: Ireland to win.