Occasion should inspire home victory

Brian Kerr Soccer analyst: Unless Ireland pick up six points from these two games our interests in qualifying will all but disintegrate, ensuring we become bit-part players for the remaining group fixtures. A situation Ireland have not encountered since the 1986 World Cup qualifying campaign.

That's a depressing regression of over 20 years.

Despite the fact that we gained seven points from the last three games, six of these were against San Marino. Irrelevant.

What is now required is a repeat of the Czech Republic performance. It's a similar build-up. The media and public are seeking a blood-letting after the San Marino disaster. Player commitment is under scrutiny.

The rugby matches have taken some weight off the significance of playing in Croke Park but I still expect a genuine sense of occasion this afternoon.

While it's a unique game for anyone interested in Irish soccer, unfortunately, unlike the rugby situation where the team is in good health and a healthy level of expectancy exists, we are at a low ebb.

There was a misjudged risk taken at the fixtures meeting before this campaign when the FAI and Steve Staunton agreed to play the first two qualifiers away from home. A silly decision especially considering a new squad was being facilitated by an inexperienced manager. It proved disastrous as we lost to Germany and Cyprus.

The team and managements are in a backs-against-the-wall scenario today. They must achieve something more tangible than the, albeit, morale boosting draw with the Czechs. That was a weakened Irish team who stepped up admirably on the night. Besides the absence of the two Reids, Andy and Steven, this will be a full-strength line-up.

As this is the strongest side Staunton has fielded, the wriggle room for excuses is getting tighter.

Looking at the event from a historical viewpoint, I don't envisage the players shredding any tears during the anthems (like big John Hayes against England) or becoming overly emotional at all.

Unlike the rugby team the footballers don't live amongst their community. The downside of living abroad is they sometimes fail to grasp the importance of it all. The rugby team, again a valid contrast, admitted to being swallowed up by the enormity of the hype-machine leading into the French game. It impacted negatively on the performance. But the bubble inhabited by British-based players is actually of benefit as their remoteness should ensure a greater focus on individual duties.

Many of the starting XI have experienced a similar environment before as Robbie Keane, Damien Duff, Shay Given, Ian Harte, Kevin Kilbane and Steve Finnan all featured at the 2002 World Cup.

The rest of the team are hardly short of maturity either. Just look at the consistency of Kevin Doyle at Reading.

Keane, as captain, really needs to produce a quality performance on a level of his recent Tottenham form. Granted, international level is full of scheming defenders so Robbie will always be well marked.

I was disappointed to hear the criticism by Richard Dunne this week. Particularly as he was a player whose career I helped to advance at underage level. Unfortunately, his complaints about visiting hospitals on the day prior to games and complaints about excessive team meetings are inaccurate and unimpressive.

The comments are typical of the malaise that afflicts the majority of modern-day soccer players (not all of the Irish team I must say).

It's a shame that they resent taking 25 minutes out of a day to visit sick people in hospital or attend an occasional team meeting that interferes with their PlayStation or pool table games.

In my first year as Ireland manager after two hospital visits we abandoned any further trips due to the whinging of some squad members. But anything seems to go these days.

The team? Only the manager, and those really close to him, know the complete form of the squad - if they are doing their jobs properly - so the selection should be respected.

What we are yet to see is a Staunton style of play. A developed pattern. Due to injuries, he was forced to adopt a 4-5-1 system against the Czechs but that proved effective on the night due to individual's enthusiasm to make it work. That's what it always comes back to really. Player motivation.

The 4-4-2 is his preferred choice, even away to Germany, where, again, it was effective. Nothing worked against Cyprus in an unacceptable performance. At least the midfield balance was realigned thereafter with Lee Carsley coming back from the cold. Stephen Ireland still requires a hunter gatherer alongside him.

The Welsh are missing several key players in Danny Gabbidon, Mark Delaney, Jason Koumas and Robbie Earnshaw. Their squad depth is poor so those stepping in are not up to much. I'd expect John Toshack to employ a 4-5-1 formation with the mercurial Craig Bellamy looking to test the positional senses of John O'Shea and Dunne. He'll also drift right to expose Harte's lack of pace. As will Simon Davies.

Ryan Giggs will play off Bellamy in a creative role. It's good that such a fine player is gracing the first soccer international at Croke Park. The much sought after Southampton defender Gareth Bale is another decent prospect.

Toshack is a wise tactician who has spent enough time in Ireland to have a decent insight into the Irish players. He will have specifically designed plans to curtail the influence of Keane and Duff.

There were three friendly's against the Welsh throughout the 1990s under Jack Charlton and they all descended into scrappy battles more typical of an English division one encounter than international football. Granted, the Croke Park surface is of a better quality than Tolka, the RDS and Lansdowne but player familiarity will constrict against an open entertaining game.

With the occasion that's in it, and the historical connotations, Ireland can generate enough inspiration to win.

Or they will simply have too much quality for the Welsh. Either way nothing short of victory will satisfy the loyalty of the Irish public.