RACING:TRANQUIL SEA will lead Edward O'Grady's team at Cheltenham in three weeks time but Ireland's most successful festival trainer believes months of bad winter conditions could yet have an impact on Irish hopes generally.

O’Grady’s tally of 18 festival winners to date places him one clear of Willie Mullins among current Irish-based trainers and Tranquil Sea is a major fancy to add to that in the Ryanair Chase.

The gelding hasn’t been seen since landing December’s John Durkan Memorial at Fairyhouse but remains a general 8 to 1 third favourite for the Grade One highlight. Along with the Triumph Hurdle hope Sailors Warn, the leading novice Shot From The Hip, Alaivan, who is unbeaten this season and is a 50 to 1 outsider for the Champion Hurdle, as well as the World Hurdle possible Rigour Back Bob, Tranquil Sea is part of a small but select O’Grady squad.

“I would have loved to have run Tranquil Sea on Red Mills day at Gowran on the day it was originally supposed to be run but it just wasn’t to be. However, I’m happy that we’ve waited with him. He schooled after racing at Leopardstown last Saturday week and we were pleased with him,” the Co Tipperary trainer said.

Disruption to the racing calendar has been a feature of the winter action in Ireland this season and O’Grady believes that will make things even more difficult for punters at Cheltenham.

“It’s been the story of the season. Whatever decisions trainers have made have been dependant on the weather, on changes in the ground, or changes in the race, or changes in the day of the race. There have been so many changes that it has become a patternless season,” he said yesterday.

“We have had horses running and training on heavy ground so if we get to Cheltenham on at least good to soft ground, which may improve as the week goes on, then that could make a big difference. There are so many variables that could tilt the odds in favour of the bookmakers rather than punters.

“If it turns up heavy at Cheltenham we will have a pattern. But improved going will alter a lot of things,” O’Grady added.

Alaivan will also receive entries in the County Hurdle and the Coral Cup as well as the Champion Hurdle and his trainer reported of the five-year-old who has won both his starts this season: “The aim is to get to Cheltenham but for which race I don’t know yet.”

Shot From The Hip was nine lengths behind Oscars Well when third in the Deloitte at Leopardstown earlier in the month and has entries in both the Supreme and the Neptune at Cheltenham. “My personal preference is for the shorter race (Supreme) but nothing will be decided until I discuss things with Frank Berry and JP (McManus),” O’Grady said before ruling out his unbeaten horse, The Real Article, from the festival. “He will probably run at Naas on March 6th and then see about Aintree,” he added.

The Kerry National winner Alfa Beat is back in the Cheltenham reckoning and could appear in the four-mile National Hunt Chase at the festival instead of waiting for the Irish Grand National in April.

Trainer Charles Byrnes has previously appeared to rule out a Cheltenham trip but stated: “There is a good chance he will go provided the ground is good. We’re concerned that he’ll have to carry too much weight in the Irish National off his mark of 149.” Alfa Beat hasn’t been seen in public since completing a five-timer in impressive style in the Kerry National at Listowel last September.