Numbers still adding up for wily Ferguson

SOCCER ANGLES:Manchester United's experienced manager has predicted that 84 points will secure the title this season and, despite last week's defeat at Wolves, their imperious home form ensures United remain strong favourites to see off Arsenal's challenge, writes MICHAEL WALKER

‘I ALWAYS write down the programme of the competitors. I always think the league starts on New Year’s Day. It’s amazing how accurate I am – honestly – where points will be dropped and won.” Alex Ferguson said this a few years ago. He was not being boastful, he was being entirely serious.

So when Ferguson said eight days ago – “I think 84 points would definitely win the title. I’m almost sure of that, so we’ve got another 30 points to find” – it will have been the result of him sitting down with pen and paper to examine the remaining fixtures of the five clubs allegedly in with a shout of winning this Premier League.

It was an interesting tally, 84 points, because when you go through the same procedure, you can see how Ferguson arrived at it and for him the happy consequence of it – United’s record-breaking 19th title.

This was pre-Wolverhampton of course. Ferguson would have expected United to win at Molineux, at worst draw, but definitely not lose. So his 84pt calculation may have been revised by Monday morning. Or it may not.

If you go through United’s remaining 13 fixtures, beginning today at home to Manchester City, you can see that United have built a sufficient cushion to take that Wolves defeat and possibly another two and still win the league.

What is reassuring for United is that challengers do not have that cushion. In coming to 84 points Ferguson must have anticipated one defeat post-Wolves.

United have yet to travel to Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal and it seems as if Ferguson opted for caution and thought two draws and a defeat would be the outcome. Two points out of nine sounds meagre, but lose twice and the difference is only a point.

So even with that, and awarding United only a draw this lunchtime against City, it is still Ferguson’s team to triumph. That assumes of course that other predictions are correct.

With three of the top five not winning last weekend, it is worth remembering upsets happen – Arsenal lost 3-2 at Wigan last April to derail them – and so this column has factored in one known unknown, as the smirking devil reiterated this week. That known unknown is that each of the top five will lose one more game each this season.

For United the guess is that this will be at Arsenal in May. But if results go to form in the remainder of the season when the big squads remain big squads despite Champions League involvement, then it is hard to see past United.

Ferguson spoke of needing ten more wins, but nine might do it. United have Bolton, Fulham, Everton and Blackpool at Old Trafford, where they have played 13 league games this season, won 12 and drawn one. United have not lost at home in the league since last April when Chelsea won 2-1 to alter the title’s destination. Chelsea won by one point in the end.

Chelsea, moreover, have yet to travel to Old Trafford. Chelsea are not the force of last season – and Fernando Torres and David Luiz constitute another known unknown – and so that trip is taken to be the visitors’ defeat.

That’s five of United’s required nine wins. Add Wigan away to that, and West Ham and Newcastle away and Ferguson would take his team to Ewood Park on the penultimate day of the season knowing that a win there could clinch the league.

Nine wins from 13 would give United 81 points. Draw at home to City today and it’s 82. Draw at Anfield and it’s 83. United could lose at Chelsea and Arsenal and 83 points – with a superior goal difference – should do it.

Who knows what St James’ Park did to Arsène Wenger’s players. But if we say they are strong – and they are in four competitions – their one factored loss comes at White Hart Lane.

On the 83pt measure Arsenal, four points off United today, will need to win nine or ten of their last 13 to catch Ferguson. You can see Arsenal winning the next six: Wolves, Stoke, Sunderland and Blackburn at home, West Brom and Blackpool away.

Factor in Arsenal beating United at home, as well as losing at Spurs, and Arsenal move to 71 points with five games left.

They are Liverpool and Villa at home and Bolton, Stoke and Fulham away. To reach 83 points, Arsenal would need to win four of those. That’s accumulating pressure.

For all our talk of a multi-horse race, on present form it will be between United and Arsenal. City have won 14 of their 26 league games so far (just over 50 per cent) and can only reach 83 points by winning 11 and drawing one of their remaining 12 games.

City have United, Chelsea and, Liverpool away and Spurs at home. Mark those down as draws – City’s football under Roberto Mancini needs to become more expansive if we are to start expecting victories – and factor in a mishap defeat at Blackburn and City will do well to finish fourth.

Chelsea, who have dropped 15 points from the last 30, could struggle as well. Torres and Luiz have to turn that form on its head because the only way Chelsea can reach 83 points is if they win all of their last 13 matches – two of which are against United, and two more are against City and Spurs.

As for Harry Redknapp’s team, at least they are out of both domestic cups. They too would need to win every game to reach 83 points. And as we have to factor in a defeat for them – at Anfield – then it won’t be Tottenham’s first title since 1961.

This may seem all too smugly logical but there is a reason Ferguson mentioned 84 points. There is a reason why United are odds-on with the bookmakers.

Actually 83, or 82, points might do: the last time less was needed was in 2001. United won convincingly then. They lost six times but three of those came after their mid-April title.

It is February and just one United defeat so far. To be a really competitive division this season, United need to be beaten again soon. Only then would pressure rise, only then would we see if this is as ordinary a United side as people say it is. Otherwise Alex Ferguson is on a countdown to a land above 80 points. That’s charted territory for him. His very own known known.