All the memories of tight battles will go Ireland's way tomorrow against a Welsh side that can be cleared out at the breakdown, writes LIAM TOLAND

IN THE 29th minute Samoa scored a try against Wales but referee Alain Rolland decreed a double movement and the try was not allowed. Samoa had battered for 17 phases close to the breakdown, going one way and rewinding another, all at will. Each Samoan ball carrier powered into contact refusing to go but one way, forward.

Throughout these 17 phases the much talked about Welsh openside Sam Warburton didn’t get his hand on the ball, in fact he didn’t even contest one of the breakdowns; redundant if you will and but for the dreaded double movement Samoa should have scored.

Thirty five minutes in and Warburton carried into traffic, meekly and held on on the deck. Some irony as it was he who conceded the breakdown penalty. Not until the 36th minute did Warburton contest a breakdown and finally get his penalty. Thirty six minutes later he got his hands on it again and another penalty was won.

In 80 minutes Warburton contested four Samoan rucks and won two penalties. After 14 phases, right on half-time, Anthony Perenise powered over for a try. Again Warburton was nowhere to be seen. Tomorrow’s match will not be won by Warburton and if Ireland approach the clear-out as Samoa did (13 times in that game Samoa created over five phase plays) he will be nullified.

So what was Samoa’s secret? Firstly the ball carrier was immense but the Welsh tended not to over commit to the ruck, expecting Warburton to work miracles. He and any red shirts were absolutely battered by the low-flying Samoans. The first steal he earned was from a terrible Samoan lineout. The second came from a kamikaze counter-attack from fullback Paul Williams. For the other 78 minutes Warburton couldn’t get near it and Samoa should have won the match but for impatience, sloppy play and white-line fever.

Warburton is a class player but he’s a captain with no worldly experience. Way back in the distant memory of 2008 Jerry Flannery looked at Donncha O’Callaghan and O’Callaghan looked back. Neither of them spoke but they both knew what had to happen next. Clermont Auvergne were for some time the best team in Europe and they had a cracking chance to beat Munster in Thomond Park. Trailing 13 points to 11 Munster were in trouble. That’s when Flannery looked at O’Callaghan. They both knew what to do; there was no need to talk. Munster duly obliged through Marcus Horan and Niall Ronan scoring tries in the last two minutes to win by 23 points to 13. Muscle does have a memory and all the memories of tight battles will go Ireland’s way tomorrow especially as the clock ticks down to 80; Ireland will win.

When the opportunity arose for Wales against the Springboks they blew it. But that is then; we are here in the present where Ireland will win. I watched the Welsh victory over Samoa last night. Samoa should not be at home, neither should Ireland.

Wales have a style and, left unfettered, it can run you ragged as happened to poor Fiji and Romania but Samoa were in no mood to allow Wales any unsupervised rugby. And man, the islanders were physical. Ignoring their offloading game for a moment the Welsh will play one way across the field at all costs. A lineout on the near side will travel all the way across with runner after runner taking it the same way. And when they reach the far touch line they will return.

They do vary their lineout between the short and the traditional, but in the opposition 10-metre area the Welsh will throw to the front with their backrow peeling off at the tail. It’ll be an off-the-top delivery to Mike Phillips who will take two steps before spinning a flat ball. But up will pop George North like a freight train heading to Ronan O’Gara. The backrow are nothing but decoys to fix our tail. Watch out North we’re on to you! Likewise bulky Jamie Roberts runs that hard line from Phillips off the tail, you guessed it, O’Gara bound. Beyond that it’s hard to see any further patterns especially with Jonathan Davies at outside centre.

Here is where Ireland have a massive advantage. Davies must be the most limited outside centre in the RWC 2011. In defence he shoots up in a skewed version of the famed Wasps defence Warren Gatland loves but he lacks the dexterity of footwork and flat out pace of his opposite man, Brian O’Driscoll. He also lacks the symbiotic relationship with his partner Roberts that O’Driscoll has with Gordon D’Arcy. It is his distribution that will affect Wales most. Contrast that to our two in midfield. As the Welsh don’t over commit to the breakdown I expect turnovers. Davies plays rugby by numbers and fails to create any real opportunity for his outside backs.

Let’s contrast the starting outhalves, O’Gara (115 caps) versus Rhys Priestland (eight caps). Not unlike the presidential debate the other night, mostly grey men with no one able to pack a punch. O’Gara will get battered about tomorrow, no doubt but he is no grey man and will step up to the plate no matter how punch drunk. In Priestland, Wales have a grey man. He is neither one thing nor the other and will cost Wales the match tomorrow. Quarter-finals are not the preserve of the grey man and the general must demand total control over the match. You’ll have to prise this one from O’Gara’s dead fingers. Given the opportunity Priestland may land the drop goal. O’Gara will demand the opportunity. O’Gara will squeeze the pitch; Priestland will err on the side of caution.

The Welsh, even in the dry can be victim of their offloading game. They tend to allow their ball carrier into contact and run the hard line of support. When the choke tackle arrives the Welsh can easily become isolated. Muscle has a memory alright and the Welsh can’t help themselves. That very memory can count against them. The Irish defence deep in the Welsh half will prove fruitful as the Welsh back three can’t help themselves but counter and they tend to do it as individuals rather than a coordinated back three. Watch Williams’ side step, he can’t resist bouncing into trouble.

Their attack off the scrum has several classic set-ups, looking to isolate defenders, cause indecision on the structure of defence by stacking one side and standing Shane Williams on the open field side. How successful this is remains a mystery as Wales couldn’t get the settled scrum platform required.

No doubt it’ll be tight but muscle has a memory and so too this Irish team. Warburton does not know what he’s facing tomorrow where his young captaincy will be tested like never before. Ireland win!