Much at stake for Ulster in war of attrition

HEINEKEN CUP:IF IT'S a capacity crowd under the Friday night lights in Ravenhill, with an English team in town, it must be one of those special Heineken Cup nights. This tie, in fact, is primed to be more special than most, for even on the penultimate weekend of the pool stages, we're already in knock-out territory.

Ulster know were they to reverse the Welford Road result, and win while denying Leicester a bonus point, they will probably extinguish the Tigers’ interest in Europe this season and at least assure themselves of a place in the Amlin Challenge Cup.

But in a group where wins on the road between the three main contenders were always likely to be as rare as hens’ teeth, the flip side is, were Leicester to win, it would assuredly end Ulster’s interest in the competition, given a daunting trek to Clermont next week. To all intents and purposes therefore, it is a win-or-bust occasion.

Encouragingly, this season-defining fixture finds Ulster in a relatively good place, with all their big-game players in situ and showing just one change from last week’s 42-20 win in Edinburgh – their fifth in six games despite having to rotate their squad over the festive period.

The vastly experienced Paddy Wallace, the only survivor on either side from when Ulster famously thumped Leicester 33-0 here eights seasons ago (albeit that was avenged even more ruthlessly a week later), returns to the midfield, with Ian Whitten moving to the bench.

The former Leicester outhalf and match-winner in the opener against Clermont, Ian Humphreys (hamstring), and bullocking South African number eight Pedrie Wannenburg (ankle) have been declared fit, and Wannenburg’s physicality and Ulster’s hard-nosed South African spine, along with Rory Best, should suit the occasion.

Significantly in light of the IRFU’s recent diktats, no less than themselves with BJ Botha last season or Munster this season, Ulster probably wouldn’t have a hope without John Afoa’s presence. The greater mobility and effectiveness of the All Blacks tight-head has given Ulster a real lift as he has begun to settle in recently, although it will be his ability to lock the scrum and for Tom Court to withstand Martin Castrogiovanni which will probably go furthest in determining Ulster’s fate.

It is also scarcely worth mentioning Ulster will require another tour de force from their phenomenal talisman Stephen Ferris to energise team and crowd alike for rather than flowing like honey, this looks like being another x-rated, grim arm wrestle, akin to their meeting in Welford Road which was effectively decided by one try.

In what amounts to a statement of intent, Leicester’s battery of props have been strengthened by the return of Marcos Ayerza and Castrogiovanni to the frontrow.

Richard Cockerill retains the same backline that started last Saturday’s win over London Wasps, with Billy Twelvetrees unsurprisingly retaining the outhalf slot in the absence of Toby Flood after scoring all of his side’s 29 points.

For sure, the Tigers have lost some of their bite, and it is 11 seasons since they retained their European crown, although they did extend Leinster to a one-score win in last season’s quarter-final, as they did in the final at Murrayfield three seasons ago.

For example, of their five players in Stuart Lancaster’s 32-man English squad, outhalf Flood, centre Manu Tuilagi and lock Louis Deacon are all sidelined, leaving only Dan Cole (on the bench) and Ben Youngs figuring here. All the more so in the absence of Flood and the younger Tuilagi, the livewire Youngs, with his brilliantly timed and effective sniping, is liable to be their key man, as he was in setting up the match-winning try at home to Clermont in round four, especially if their scrum and backrow rumblers generate any momentum.

Hence, Ulster will do well not to take them remotely lightly, for Leicester remain England’s standardbearers in Europe, even if they have failed to qualify on all three previous World Cup seasons.

Nonetheless, languishing near the foot of the table after the World Cup, Leicester have won six and drawn one of their seven games since, accumulating 29 out of a maximum 35 points in the process, to climb to a top-four play-off spot in the table.

Taking into account their European form, their only defeat in their last 11 matches has been away to Clermont.

For their part, however, Ulster have won their last 10 Heineken Cup ties in succession at home, and have seen off English sides in nine of the last 10 years here. And there’s something about those Friday night lights when an English team comes to Ravenhill.

ULSTER:S Terblanche; A Trimble, D Cave, P Wallace, C Gilroy; I Humphreys, R Pienaar; T Court, R Best, J Afoa, J Muller (capt), D Tuohy, S Ferris, C Henry, P Wannenburg. Replacements: N Brady, C Black, A Macklin, L Stevenson, W Faloon, P Marshall, I Whitten, A D'Arcy.

LEICESTER TIGERS:G Murphy (capt); H Agulla, M Smith, A Allen, A Tuilagi; B Twelvetrees, B Youngs; M Ayerza, R Hawkins, M Castrogiovanni, S Mafi, G Parling, T Croft, J Salvi, T Waldrom. Replacements: G Chuter, B Stankovich, D Cole, E Slater, B Woods, S Harrison, J Staunton, S Hamilton.

Referee: Romain Poite (France).

Results so far:Ulster – 16-11 v Clermont (h); 9-20 v Leicester (a), 31-10 v Aironi (h); 46-20 v Aironi (a). Leicester – 28-12 v Aironi (a); 20-9 v Ulster (h); 12-30 v Clermont (a); 23-19 v Clermont.

Betting (Paddy Powers): 8/11 Ulster, 18/1 Draw, 6/5 Leicester. Handicap odds (Leicester +2pts) 10/11 Ulster, 18/1 Draw, 10/11 Leicester.

Forecast:Ulster to win.

Ulster V Leicester. Venue:Ravenhill Kick-off:8pm On TV:Sky Sports