Maturing Dublin ready to take the next step

It's no secret that Dublin have ambitions of going all the way in this year's football championship. Winning a third successive Leinster title was a fair achievement, but still not enough. The main objective at the beginning of the year would have been the All-Ireland title.

That's still a realistic objective. Given their age profile, experience and maturity, it's probably time they laid hands on that elusive Sam Maguire.

So far they'll be happy with the progress they've made this year. They're a better side than last year and will be delighted to have those two tough games against Meath under their belts. Those games brought on this Dublin team, in revealing their strengths, but also in exposing their weaknesses.

The platforms for their success have been a dominant midfield and a solid defence. Ciarán Whelan is having an outstanding year, ably assisted by Shane Ryan. They complement each other very well - Whelan fielding, Ryan mobile, picking up the breaking ball and reading the clever kick-outs of Stephen Cluxton, especially towards the wings.

Dublin's forward play is improving too, though they're still not efficient enough in transferring their plentiful possession into scores. We've seen a little too much soloing at the start of the summer, and one easy way to rectify that is to tap over the simple points. Dublin are mobile and well able to work the ball into scoring positions, but they need to finish.

Jason Sherlock has added creativity. He has a true football brain and can spot openings, without maybe having the legs to play on the wings. And this Dublin forward line can definitely score goals.

Mark Vaughan has also added much to their place-kicking, but the stakes are getting higher, and we'll see how well he copes with rising pressure. And Dublin need to see more of him in general play.

The big concern for Dublin is that they're meeting a Derry team on a roll, playing with great confidence after beating Armagh, Mayo and Laois - three quality sides. It's been the ideal run-in, with two-week breaks between matches. So Derry will be very sharp, probably at their best.

They'll come to Croke Park with confidence, and most of this team will be familiar with the place. The big question is how they'll react to the crowd of 82,000, most of them partisan to Dublin.

These games are home matches for Dublin. They're well used to the routine and are fully aware of what awaits them. They have been winning in Croke Park as well.

So Derry need to relish the experience, relax and just play their own game. They cannot be distracted by what's happening outside the white lines. Nerves could play a bigger part for them.

There's no way, however, Dublin will be complacent. Last year's semi-final defeat to Mayo is still fresh in their minds. That hurt, and was the greatest lesson Dublin could have got. So I've no doubt they will hit the ground running today and try to ratchet up the intensity so Derry won't be able to live with them.

But I don't except Derry to stand back. They have experienced and physical defenders in Kevin McCloy and Seán Marty Lockhart. Dublin's most dangerous forwards are Conal Keaney and Alan Brogan, but Derry will have done their homework on them, and I expect McCloy to take up Keaney.

Derry's midfield of Fergal Doherty and James Conway won't lack physical presence either, and it is impossible for players to maintain intensity at midfield for the full 70 minutes.

The biggest problem Dublin have is fading out of games for 10 or 15 minutes, particularly in the second half. That's when Whelan and Ryan can struggle. So Derry will likely have their period of dominance, and they need to make the most of it.

I expect Paul Griffin to man-mark Paddy Bradley, Derry's score-getter.

I still have slight reservations about Dublin's young full back Ross McConnell, and possibly Paul Casey as well, who's not having his best year. So I feel Derry might put Enda Muldoon at full forward, because he a fine midfielder, very good overhead, and that's where McConnell has shown a weakness.

So Derry certainly aren't without a chance. If they survive the inevitable early onslaught they should still be in contention well into the second half, but Dublin have also proved this year they can finish out games. We haven't seen the panic of last year. They're holding their heads, and if they do that again this afternoon I expect them to progress into the semi-final.

That should set up an enticing clash with Kerry, who should get the better of Monaghan tomorrow.

I cannot see how Kerry can lose. They have the best scoring forwards in the country, especially Colm Cooper, Kieran Donaghy, Mike Frank Russell and Declan O'Sullivan. They're all lethal, and I can't see Monaghan containing them for 70 minutes.

Still, Monaghan should make a game of it, particularly as Kerry haven't played in six weeks. They'll probably get plenty of possession and run at Kerry, and this should be the biggest test yet for the Kerry defence since Séamus Moynihan and Mike McCarthy moved on. The questions will be asked of Pádraig and Killian Young, and the cover on the bench is not particularly good.

I was surprised to see Séamus Scanlon get the call at midfield, but the management obviously went for his mobility over the physical strength of Micheál Quirke. But Darragh Ó Sé is having another fantastic season, probably at the height of his powers, and he'll be difficult to contain, though Monaghan have an athletic midfielder in Eoin Lennon.

Monaghan will have to play Vincent Corey on Donaghy, unless they're desperate up front. Donaghy hasn't really played yet this year, but we should watch out for him tomorrow.

Monaghan have done well to get this far, and have ideas up front. I've been impressed with Tommy Freeman. But they need a big game from Paul Finlay and Rory Woods, and all things considered, if they won here it would be the shock of the season.

Overall, everything about this weekend points to a Dublin-Kerry semi-final, though we'll hold back on talk of that for another day.