Leinster to come up with right formula

RUGBY/Leinster v Leicester Tigers:Deciphering Leinster's aptitude to successfully negotiate such a pivotal contest at this point in the season is a fraught process, incorporating so many intangibles as to be virtually impossible. The Irish province resembles a complex mathematical equation: the numbers are there but the formula for a successful conclusion can be elusive to find.

There have been instances in the past couple of matches when Leinster coach Michael Cheika might have been tempted to shout, "Eureka!" especially with regard to the performance of the pack. South African prop Ollie le Roux has brought footballing nous, solidity in the scrum and a fine work ethic, and Leo Cullen's organisational skills out of touch are already apparent.

The improvement up front has been appreciable from last season and augurs well, but today at the RDS brings this unit's most stringent examination to date. Opposition tend to target the Leinster pack, hoping to cut off the oxygen of possession to a celebrated back line.

The Leicester Tigers eight are custom-built for this process, from the twin pillars in the front row of Marcos Ayerza and Julian White to the flankers Martin Corry and Lewis Moody. Jordan Crane is an athletic young number eight of rich promise while Ben Kay and Louis Deacon complement one another well in discharging the secondrow duties. And if there is any talking to be done, George Chuter won't require a soapbox.

An unfortunate training injury to Stephen Keogh has averted a potentially difficult decision for Cheika with regard to who should start at openside flanker for Leinster. The back row will now accommodate both Keith Gleeson and Shane Jennings, the only obvious shortcoming a lack of bulk in the scrum; they are fine footballers whose presence indicates Leinster will pursue a certain style of play.

The traditional theatres of engagement up front are sure to be keenly contested and Leinster will be hoping Malcolm O'Kelly produces his traditional response to the big-game atmosphere.

Felipe Contepomi, the catalyst for so many memorable Leinster occasions, returns at outhalf and in partnership with the unfussy and excellent Chris Whitaker could give the home side the edge in the duel at halfback.

That's not to disregard the potential influence of the Leicester outhalf Andy Goode - he could kick Leinster to death on his day - and the Cork-born Frank Murphy, who has settled into the scrumhalf role.

The English club have opted for physique in their three-quarter line, in particular on the wings. Fijian Seru Rabeni lined out at outside centre against Cardiff the last day but shifts to the wing instead of the ridiculously quick Tom Varndell to accommodate the return of Ollie Smith following injury. Alesana Tuilagi is on the other wing as the acting coach, Richard Cockerill - Marcelo Loffreda is taking a supervisory role in his first couple of weeks, leaving Cockerill to select the team - opts for a physically aggressive approach. Dan Hipkiss boasts excellent feet in traffic while Geordan Murphy, making his 50th Heineken European Cup appearance for the Tigers, is capable of the sublime.

Brian O'Driscoll remains a totem in a Leinster back line that is capable of eviscerating opposition defences and in tandem with Gordon D'Arcy, showing a timely return to form in the last fortnight, and Contepomi will be expected to create and exploit space.

Therein lies the rub for the home side. In the last couple of games they have shown a tendency to overload the short side with numbers, and the lines of running off the ball carrier and the ability of the man is possession to spot the trail runner have been patchy.

Leinster need to inject a high tempo to the proceedings and maintain it. It's not about throwing the ball around and lurching from touchline to touchline but rather a more precise and penetrative use of the ball. They need to be more subtle in what they demand of Shane Horgan and cater for his strengths.

The Tigers are likely to be a little less freewheeling, a little more predictable in their gambits, but no less effective for that if their pack manage to build their accustomed impetus in the forward collisions.

Assuming, however, the Leinster pack continues its forward progress and manages parity in the tight exchanges, the home side could eke out a narrow victory. But they will need to take virtually every opportunity along the way.

LEINSTER: G Dempsey; S Horgan, B O'Driscoll, G D'Arcy, R Kearney; F Contepomi, C Whitaker; O le Roux, B Jackman, S Wright; L Cullen, M O'Kelly; S Jennings, K Gleeson, J Heaslip. Replacements: B Blaney, JF Gomez, C Jowitt, K McLaughlin, C Willis, C Warner, L Fitzgerald.

LEICESTER: G Murphy; S Rabeni, D Hipkiss, O Smith, A Tuilagi; A Goode, F Murphy; M Ayerza, G Chuter, J White; L Deacon, B Kay; M Corry (capt), L Moody, J Crane. Replacements: M Davies, M Castrogiovanni, J Hamilton, L Abraham, C Laussucq, P Burke, J Murphy.

Referee: C Berdos (France).

Verdict: Leinster to win.

Previous European Cup meetings: 1996/97: Leinster 10 Leicester 27; 1997/98: Leinster 16 Leicester 9; 1997/98: Leicester 47 Leinster 22; 1999/2000: Leinster 27 Leicester 20; 1999/2000: Leicester 10 Leinster 32; 2001/02: Leicester 29 Leinster 18; 2004/05: Leinster 13 Leicester 29.

Betting (Paddy Power): Leinster 10/11, Leicester 11/10, Draw 20/1.