Leinster can silence the naysayers

RUGBY:THE SUN shone brightly in Edinburgh yesterday, as the first battalions of the 23,000-strong Irish contingent invaded Auld Reekie, and more of the same is forecast today. Admittedly, there were quite a few deflated foot soldiers from the Red Army around for this mid-May finale, but this is the Blue Army's day and optimism is in the air, writes GERRY THORNLEY, Rugby Correspondent, in Edinburgh

Conflicts of interest abound. Geordan Murphy’s parents were reported to be supporting their native province today, but the Leicester captain was adamant they were put on the spot and, “While I’m sure they have a soft spot for Leinster, after 12 years with Leicester I’d be surprised if any of my family weren’t supporting Leicester. They’ll be wearing Tigers colours or else they’re not getting tickets.”

Murphy was sporting sunglasses, most likely to hide the scars inflicted on his eyeball when he was scratched in the Premiership final against London Irish. That didn’t prevent the classy Naas player from winning another Man of the Match award and his sixth Premiership title, to go with two Heineken Cup winners’ medals.

Nothing illustrates the scale of the task facing Leinster today than those stats, for Murphy is possibly the most decorated Irish rugby player of all time.

Against him will be a host of familiar faces. Unsurprisingly, Michael Cheika has reverted to the same team which started the semi-final win over Munster, save for Jonathan Sexton replacing the injured Felipe Contepomi. Rob Kearney has to be content with a place on the bench.

By contrast, coach Richard Cockerill has made only two changes to the Leicester team which started against London Irish, with Samoan powerhouse Alesana Tuilagi returning from a five-week suspension at the expense of Johne Murphy on the wing, and fit-again Martin Castrogiovanni returning at tight-head.

Julien White thus reverts to perhaps the role that suits him best: impact replacement in the last quarter.

Leicester are on a roll of 12 wins in 13 games. Four of their last six wins have been knock-out matches, including the last three in a row.

In dealing with the issue of fatigue, Cockerill made all the right noises yesterday. He pointed out that after their extra-time and penalty shoot-out theatrics against Cardiff in the Heineken Cup semi-finals, the following week they hit the ground running against Bath in the Premiership semi-finals. Indeed they probably produced their best 60 minutes of the season that day.

Even so, Cockerill has been largely relying on the same players throughout this arduous, end-of-season run. While one would expect them to come out all guns blazing from the start, the suspicion lurks that this could be a game too far – with the critical proviso that they don’t generate the psychological buffer of an early lead.

For Leinster, today will tell whether it’s a source of inspiration or tension in their rugby, but they must be acutely mindful that this represents the chance of a lifetime. And it’s been a long time coming.

Irish rugby is seeking to emulate England in having more than two winners of the 14-year-old competition, while it’s the sixth time an Irish team has kept interest alive until the final in the last 11 years.

It is, of course, Leinster’s first appearance in the final, and, as history would tend to verify, now comes the hard part. As with the Champions League in football, teams do not tend to bolt from the pack and make off with the booty – à la Porto – without having cut their teeth beforehand. In the last eight years, only Wasps have lifted the trophy as first-time finalists.

There also remains a nagging suspicion that Leinster have had another one of their blips of peak form, à la the mauling of Wasps in October, with the risk of them not backing this up.

But this ignores their current well-being. After the performance against Munster, they oozed self-belief six days later in the seven-try rout of the Scarlets and are now well rested.

Allowing for the absence of two of their main overseas contingent, Felipe Contepomi and CJ van der Linde (who you’d really like for this one), Leinster appear in as healthy a state as they could be.

You look through the two teams and Leinster appear to have more game-breakers, and, whatever about the frontrow, are stronger in the backrow, midfield and perhaps even in the back three.

The big imponderable is the head-to-head of the young outhalves, Sexton and Sam Vesty, but Sexton looks better primed mentally than ever.

Indeed, Leinster have developed total faith in each other and their defensive system, and, with a big input from Sexton, have simplified and thus ironed out their attacking game. Their scrum may well survive, but they may have to overcome losing a handful of their lineouts.

“They’re an excellent set-piece team,” said Cheika yesterday, “and the physicality that they bring to the game and the momentum that they can sometimes create when they really start stringing their game together is something we have to halt, by giving them absolutely nothing. And they we have to look to create and really go and win the game. They’re very good at spoiling as well, they have an excellent scrum wheel and they have good lineout operators as well; they take a lot of your first-phase possession away, and if we don’t get that we just have to be prepared to resource the ball from somewhere else. And that’s going to be about hunger and hard work.”

Cue the breakdown area. This will probably be where the game will be won or lost. The Tigers devour this area, but Leinster have a plethora of effective operators here too, be it the Rocky Elsom-Jamie Heaslip-Shane Jennings trio, or the Gordon D’Arcy-Brian O’Driscoll double act.

Leinster will have to be prepared for the mother of all shifts from first minute to last, to keep making tackles, counter rucking and getting back up on their feet, and repeat the process, while also having the energy to make the support runs, come up with the big plays and take their chances. This is where O’Driscoll, Nacewa, the enduringly excellent Fitzgerald and others come in.

It could be an unpredictable ride, like the weather forecast: dry and fair with the risk of showers.

But Leinster have it in them to silence all the naysayers once and for all.

Previous meetings:1996/97 – Pool Leinster 10-27 Leicester. 1997/98 – Pool Leinster 16-9 Leicester; Leicester 47-22 Leinster. 1999/2000 – Pool Leinster 27-20 Leicester; Leicester 10-32 Leinster. 2001/02 – Quarter-final Leicester 29-18 Leinster. 2004/05 – Quarter-final Leinster 13-29 Leicester. 2007/08 – Pool Leinster 22-9 Leicester; Leicester 25-9 Leinster.

Routes to final: Leicester:12-6 v Ospreys (h); 60-16 v Benetton Treviso (a); 38-27 v Perpignan (h); 20-26 v Perpignan (a); 52-0 v Benetton Treviso (h); 9-15 v Ospreys (a); q/f 20-15 v Bath (h); s/f 26-26 v Cardiff Blues (a) 26-26 (aet, 2-2 on tries, Leicester win 7-6 on penalty shoot-out). Leinster: 27-16 v Edinburgh (a); 41-11 v Wasps (h); 33-3 v Castres (h); 15-18 v Castres (a); 12-19 v Wasps (h); 12-3 v Edinburgh (a); q/f 6-5 v Harlequins (a); s/f 25-6 v Munster (a).

Leading try scorers:Leicester: S Hamilton, J Murphy 4 each; J Crane, T Flood, A Mauger, G Murphy 3 each. Leinster: B O'Driscoll 5; F Contepomi, R Elsom, L Fitzgerald 2 each.

Leading points scorers:Leicester: T Flood 76. Leinster: F Contepomi 64.

Betting (Paddy Power):10/11 Leicester, 18/1 Draw, 10/11 Leinster.

Forecast:Leinster to win.

Ford replaces Flannery for Lions

SCOTLAND hooker Ross Ford has been called into the British and Irish Lions squad for the tour to South Africa as a replacement for the injured Jerry Flannery of Munster.
Ulster's Rory Best, in Canada with the Ireland squad, had been considered a contender but has been overlooked for Ford.

Lions coach Ian McGeechan said: "Ross is a terrific player and he will naturally slot straight in as hooker. I look forward to welcoming him into camp tonight."

A decision on a replacement for Wales wing Leigh Halfpenny has been delayed.