Kerry by a head in big derby

AT LAST, time for a football match to make the hairs stand on the back of your neck. Although we have experienced shock after shock so far this summer, I can honestly say that tomorrow's Kerry-Cork match marks the start of the real championship - and, strange to say, it will be one of the few genuine derby games that will take place this year.

Think about it: there will be no DerryDown match, no Dublin-Meath clash, and no Galway-Mayo encounter. So, the old football rivalry that exists between Kerry and Cork really has the "derby" stage all to itself. It's a real old firm battle and, consequently, it is very difficult to put a finger on the outcome. Last year's form means very little and, like so many of these games, it almost comes down to sticking a pin in it.

What can you take from league form? I think the best thing is actually to ignore it. By their last match of the league, Kerry had already secured a semi-final place while Cork had a poor run of form that was almost to be expected after the amount of time and effort they had put into winning the league in 1999 and then going on to win the Munster title and reach the All-Ireland final. It would have been something of a relief to them - both players and management - to ease down, even if it resulted in being relegated from Division One.

However, the only problem with easing down, as Cork appear to have done in the league, is that it can be harder than you think to rediscover the competitive streak. To all intents and purposes, Cork's last significant win came in the All-Ireland semi-final over Mayo last August. That's the guts of nine months ago and it means they have a lot of questions to answer going into tomorrow's match about whether or not they are able to get back that good form.

From the team selection, it seems to me as if Cork will be changing strategy from the one that was extremely effective in last year's Munster final. On that occasion, Don Davis was a targetman with mobility on the edge of the square. This time, Davis has been moved out to a very mobile looking half-forward line while Steven O'Brien, at full forward, and Colin Corkery, probably anxious to prove that he should have had a role to play in last year's All-Ireland, are two extremely experienced and effective, but less mobile, targetmen in a line that also includes Philip Clifford, one of the few Corkmen to deliver the goods in last September's All-Ireland final.

It's interesting to see Seamus Moynihan brought back to full back for Kerry, especially given that he would be far more confident further outfield. Still, I expect he will do his customary first-class job in the position. Moynihan has always soldiered in the cause of Kerry, no matter where he has played, and I don't think it will be any different tomorrow.

Most people seem to have question marks over the Kerry defence, but personally I think the important battleground tomorrow will be fought around midfield. I expect Kerry to shade it, and that might be enough for them to win the match too. It only transpired after last year's match that Dara O Se was affected by illness going into it which accounted for his performance that day. Tomorrow, I expect O Se and Donal Daly to shade it over Fachtna Collins and Nicholas Murphy - although it should be an exhilarating sideshow to the main event.

One area where Kerry fell down badly in the corresponding match a year ago was in the shooting department. They only scored a total of 2-4 and managed only two points in the entire second half. That's not what you expect from Kerry football teams and I don't anticipate a recurrence on this occasion. I just can't see the Kerry forward line being held again to just four points while I also believe that the weather, which is forecast to be better than last year's, is another factor that will be in Kerry's favour.

It's a hard one to call and the motivational levels on both sides are so high that a close game is inevitably the consequence. But I think this is going to be a big year for Kerry. I think home advantage has to be worth something to them and I also think that having a player such as Maurice Fitzgerald available on the bench is another factor. All things considered, and anticipating that they will win the midfield battle, I believe that Kerry will triumph.

In an interview with Philip Reid