SOCCER ANGLES:Normally Sunderland wouldn't harbour any hopes against United, but after recent events a shock home victory could be on the cards, writes MICHAEL WALKER

CONSIDERING ONE of the biggest gripes about the Premier League is its predictability – in August we all can guess the top four in May – how come we’re so baffled this week? It’s April and the Established Top Four are six points clear of fifth-placed Aston Villa who, in the past two games have lost 5-0 at Liverpool and 3-2 at Manchester United. United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal are easing themselves away to another Champions League group stage pay-day next season that will merely serve to re-enforce their dominance for yet another season after that.

Yet the top of the league retains the capacity to thrill. Four points separate the top three and while United have a game in hand, something is happening to the champions of England and Europe. Exactly what that is is the cause of much debate but it appears to be the accumulation of small factors that have created a big headache for Alex Ferguson.

Loss of players to injury, loss of form and loss of time, these are three reasons why less than a month on from being one up against Liverpool at Old Trafford, Ferguson is calling United’s present situation “strange”.

You know what he means. In the 20 United games that preceded Liverpool, six goals were conceded – three of them to Derby County in the semi-final of the League Cup. Including Liverpool and the three games since, United have let in 10. It is upside down, inside out stuff and no wonder Ferguson seems as perplexed as he is angry.

As he surveyed Tuesday night’s match against Porto at Old Trafford Ferguson must have wondered whether this was European football or its distant cousin of the playground variety. When compared to the sort of discipline that was necessary for United to overcome Barcelona in last season’s semi-final – when Barcelona finished the second leg with Lionel Messi, Thierry Henry, Deco, Eidur Gudjohnsen and Bojan Krkic on the pitch – this was extraordinarily loose.

The fact that United have had 24 matches in the 97 days from Christmas to Tuesday is only a partial explanation, especially as it is just one more game than in the same period last season. (Liverpool have played 19 from Christmas to Wednesday, Chelsea 21).

Nemanja Vidic spoke of possible “complacency” after Porto as a reason for the slips, while Jonny Evans talked of defenders not defending “for their lives”.

Evans was not sidestepping culpability on Porto’s opener when his poor clearance and failure to close down led to the goal.

But maybe in the back of their minds United’s players – and Ferguson – thought they would ease past a Porto team beaten 4-0 at Arsenal in September.

Ferguson accepted his share of responsibility for not taking the opportunity to move last Sunday’s Aston Villa match back to the previous lunchtime. That left 48 hours to prepare for Porto, and United weren’t prepared for the vibrancy Porto had to offer. Who was? But Tuesday’s final whistle has brought four days of rest and readiness for this afternoon.

United have a trip to Sunderland and no matter the dip they are in, Wearside will be surprised if their team gets a point and staggered if they inflict a first home league win in 12 years on the visitors.

Not so long ago Ferguson might have been motivated by the sight of Roy Keane in the Sunderland dugout, but it is Ricky Sbragia now. Sbragia is also a Scot, one who worked under Ferguson with United’s reserves for three years. As a collision it lacks the spice of Keane-Ferguson.

That is part of Sunderland’s concern. There has been no great pining for Keane but as Sunderland have dropped down the table doing a good impression of last-season’s Reading, questions about Sbragia’s suitability have increased locally.

Sunderland have scored twice in their last six games, so Edwin van der Sar should not be too bothered by who he has at centre-half. Sbragia, moreover, after last Saturday’s loss at West Ham, talked aloud about the lack of “talent” in his “small” squad.

This is three months after he said the squad Keane assembled needed to be cut in half. It is not just at United where things are strange.

And it is not just Ferguson with a headache. Niall Quinn will have one a week-long if Sunderland lose today because they host Hull City next Saturday. Going into that vital fixture on the back of four straight defeats could not be called ideal.

Sbragia’s comments were followed by a squad meeting on Tuesday, the sort of occasion when struggling players hope to convince one another that they are good enough for matches like today’s. Sbragia in turn sounded more positive on Wednesday and there may yet be a shock at the Stadium of Light.

Liverpool’s victory at Old Trafford last month, Chelsea’s at Anfield on Wednesday night and the events at Fulham and against Villa in between have made us wary of being so certain.

A month ago a large wager on United today would have been compulsory, but that is not the case this morning. Sunderland might just cause an upset because they so need to. That would mean we’d all turn to Liverpool’s and Chelsea’s run-ins again.

It’s April, it’s uncertain and it is refreshing.

Dalglish has to be admired

IT SEEMS like you either had to marry Kenny Dalglish or play in the same team as him to get inside his head, which is why a lot of people seem put off by him. But Liverpool, Celtic and Scotland fans know him as a genius footballer, and a fair share of the wider world will recall him as someone who looked devastated by the Hillsborough disaster.

The 20th anniversary is to bring Dalglish back into the national picture and a reminder of the agony of that day and the trauma that followed.

Dalglish's daughter Kelly has been part of a documentary to mark the occasion and to hear her speak yesterday was to hear her father distancing his emotions from those of the relatives of the dead.

Dalglish considers his to be unworthy of the status of theirs. Which is a reason not just to like Kenny Dalglish but to admire him.

It's not all sunshine in summer

ON THE night of March 3rd, while Liverpool were beating Sunderland 2-0 at Anfield, 2,450 of us defied the rain at Darlington to see the Quakers overcome the oldest league club in the world Notts County. It was a week after Darlington had entered administration and the sense was that several Football League clubs would follow. This week Southampton did and there are fresh concerns over Chesterfield's viability. It does little to allay the fear that after around 125 years of small-time Football League clubs battling successfully against the absence of success, this summer could produce change of unseen proportions. There are no gate receipts in the summer and people are worried.