Istabraq taken to win comfortably

One of the few things we can take for granted this weekend is that more than one punter will be banking on Istabraq when trying to grab a share of the £25,000 guaranteed jackpot at Leopardstown tomorrow. Probably another is that Istabraq will do the business and win.

But what we can say for certain is that there will be a very real poignancy when Istabraq lines up for the £50,000 AIG Europe Champion Hurdle. The death on Thursday of John Durkan, the young man who pinpointed the classic bred Istabraq's jumping potential, will be in the forefront of the minds of everybody involved in the sport.

If anything proves the description of racing as the magnificent triviality, it's the loss of such a popular and talented person. As Istabraq's jockey Charlie Swan said yesterday: "It puts things in their perspective."

However, nobody took more interest in the blossoming career of Istabraq than Durkan and it will be entirely fitting if the six-year-old can do what everyone expects him to do and win tomorrow in a style that will confirm his position at the top of the Smurfit Champion Hurdle market.

Istabraq's ante-post price of 2/5 for tomorrow's race only reflects what the formbook tells us; that he should win comfortably. A canter round Leopardstown last time and two defeats of Cockney Lad are his record this season and bring his career record over flights to eight wins from nine starts.

The only blemish was on his debut in November 1996 when Noble Thyne beat him at Punchestown and although Paddy Mullins' horse reopposes tomorrow, his 25 to 1 price reflects the different path of their subsequent careers.

Yesterday, Istabraq's connections were displaying understandable confidence. Trainer Aidan O'Brien said: "He's a much sharper, more switched on horse this season and I'm not worried about the pace."

Swan added: "We couldn't be happier with him. He's not going to be 100 per cent fit until his main target, the English Champion Hurdle, but he's as good as we want him to be at this stage. The dangers look to be Cockney Lad and His Song who has been very impressive."

One slight hope for Istabraq's opposition is that the O'Brien trained horses haven't been scoring with their usual regularity in recent weeks but Swan said: "It doesn't worry me. Some of the horses have been too high in the handicap and this often happens at this time of year anyway."

"His Song is a novice and going up in class but I did it on Danoli when he was second in this race to Fortune And Fame."

Nevertheless, Cockney Lad, a surprise winner of this race last year, is a durable and talented enough performer to expose any chinks that a less than fully operational Istabraq might display. Noel Meade's horse has been a reliable barometer in recent seasons but it will be a major surprise if Istabraq cannot beat him again.

Much of the interest in the main supporting race, the Baileys Arkle Cup, has been robbed with the defection of Dardjini who was found to have filling in a joint. Noel Meade said: "I can't say at the moment whether this will affect his going to Cheltenham. It doesn't appear too bad but there is filling there and plenty of heat. We'll know more in a couple of days."

In Dardjini's absence, this looks a good opportunity for the in form Dermot Kelly and his smart mare Magical Lady. Runner up to Dardjini here at Christmas she should be too quick for the consistent Private Peace. As regards Cheltenham, the Waterford Crystal Hurdle could be more significant especially if Tom Taaffe's Triumph Hurdle hope Daybreak Express can maintain the favourable impression he made when winning on his debut at Naas. Daylight Express was quite a smart performer on the flat in France and was a 50,000 gns purchase by Taaffe at Newmarket. The money looked more than well spent, however, at Naas when stretching 12 lengths clear of Oliver's Island on heavy ground. Richard Dunwoody was impressed with the horse and with expected improvement, Daybreak Express looks up to beating Hamamelis who unshipped her rider at the start here at Christmas.

Aidan O'Brien can also take the BAX Handicap Chase but possibly not with the Swan ridden Corket but with Penndara who should find the trip more to his liking than the likes of Tell The Nipper and The Quads while a returning to form Marlonette is preferred in the opener.

The two bumper races look very interesting. Christy Roche has a formidable bumper team and Joe Mac should go close in the Foxrock Flat Race although he is likely to have to work to beat the highly regarded Somemanforoneman.

It's quality more than quantity with four in the Fairhaven Race and having a high regard for To Your Honour, preference is for Old Trafford Queen.