Ireland must earn the right to play

RUGBY: EDINBURGH CASTLE and the other landmarks of this charming city were resplendent in winter sunshine yesterday, but tomorrow's forecast is for rain and bitter cold. Close your eyes and think of Scottish wins and you invariably picture Murrayfield in the rain. Stir in an Irish team under pressure, and a wounded Scottish team left to stew on an abject home defeat, and this is a heady brew.

Defeat really isn’t an option for Ireland, for it could leave a demoralised squad facing the prospect of travelling to a Welsh team quite possibly with two wins on the bounce, before then playing hosts to an English chariot chasing silverware.

Victory, on the other hand, would at least keep a Triple Crown alive.

Then again, Scotland’s cause is even more desperate, for defeat would leave them with a trek to Twickenham and then a possible wooden spoon finale against the Azzurri.

Three token Irish fans with full pints of the black stuff were interviewed in an Irish bar on BBC Scotland yesterday. They looked to be the only customers. Yesterday’s flights from a quiet Dublin Airport were full enough, but while a Sunday afternoon kick-off in Edinburgh may suit the TV paymasters, it is not conducive to a Green Army invasion or, apparently, even a full house.

From a home perspective, as the ubiquitous taxi driver put it with a shrug: “It depends which Scottish team turn up”.

The Scottish team are on trial with their rugby public. They owe them one after the error-strewn embarrassment against the Welsh, and they know it.

A strong first quarter by the Welsh and a 13-0 lead were enough to utterly deflate Scottish morale. “We have started games badly of late, conceding early tries,” said Andy Robinson (ironically 0-2 against Ireland as English coach, but 1-0 with the Scots) in identifying a strong first quarter as critical. To that end, he added: “We’ve got to play in the right areas of the pitch.”

It’s still therefore a little surprising that of his seven changes, one is the 23-year-old Ruaridh Jackson, making his first Test start in place of Dan Parks, who floundered horribly against Wales when asked to play a game which didn’t suit him, but who would have been adept at finding territory and helping to put the Irish lineout under pressure with Scotland’s array of lighthouses.

Of the other changes, Moray Low and the rangy Richie Gray (sorely missed against Wales) should improve their set-pieces, and, in tandem with John Beattie, should add more mobility to their pack play. Beattie is the only member of the Scotland squad to score a try against Ireland in the Six Nations, in Dublin last year, and is reunited for the first time this season with his fellow Killer Bs, John Barclay and Kelly Brown. But Killer Bs only sting once, no?

Scotland are seeking to end a seven-game try drought at Murrayfield dating back to Graeme Morrison’s touchdown against Fiji in November ’09, and Jackson has more attacking rugby in him than Parks. But the Scottish backline – with Sean Lamont starting at inside centre for only the second time – has a much more untried look than Ireland’s, which can only be exacerbated by the poaching and athleticism of Tommy Bowe, not least from cross-kicks.

In contrast to Robinson, Declan Kidney has, of course, resorted to his more experienced game manager in Ronan O’Gara, 13 points away from becoming the fifth player to reach 1,000 Test points and heading into the weekend six points adrift of Jonny Wilkinson as the championship’s all-time points scorer.

More pertinently, O’Gara will have Ireland playing in the the right areas of the pitch, for if New Ireland have learned anything when applying their their all-singing, all-dancing game, it is surely the need to avoid conceding penalties in their half, particularly with the metronomic Chris Paterson recalled.

Ireland’s scrum has steadied, and if their lineout survives (Paul O’Connell is nearing his best again) and Jamie Heaslip, David Wallace, Seán O’Brien (all excellent against France), Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll et al match the Scottish marauders in the breakdown skirmishes, then they have more rugby and more tries in them.

But they need to build a performance, build a lead and earn the right to play. And with Peter Stringer and Jonathan Sexton among their replacements, they have the ability to change things if they are of a mind to, which one hopes they will.

Murrayfield has long since ceased to be a graveyard for Irish ambitions, with Ireland winning there on their last four visits in the Six Nations. But Scotland have won two of the last four clashes, and three of Ireland’s last four wins over Scotland have been by a score.

Even on a line through South Africa and Samoa last November, and allowing for home advantage, through France in this championship as well, there wouldn’t appear to be much between the teams. Yet you think of seven Glasgow players and four from Edinburgh, and look at their Heineken Cup and Magners League records.

Completing the Celtic feel to it, there’s the Nigel Owens factor. He’s a far better referee than Romain Poite or Dave Pearson. Worryingly, close finishes appear to follow him around, while five of his six Championship games to date have been won by the home team, though the exception was in Murrayfield when France won last season.

These are teams in vulnerable places mentally, but, while they are at home, the Scots are in a more fragile place. For how long would their team keep the faith and their public stay with them if they start poorly again, or fall behind by a score or two?

Ireland to win then, and, were they to start strongly, to win well.

BETTING: 15/8 Scotland, 22/1 Draw, 4/9 Ireland. Handicap (Scotland + 5pts): 10/11 Scotland, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.