High hopes and hype but record is ordinary

Seán Moranplots the course of Dublin's recent development and suggests the crucial tests still lie ahead

Another huge crowd will descend on Croke Park tomorrow for the latest step of Dublin's Bank of Ireland Leinster football title defence, against Offaly. These matches are one of the hallmarks of the GAA summer and bring with them the whirl of expectation that surrounds Dublin.

For the GAA at large it's heartening to see the sheer scale of numbers that attend Croke Park on days like tomorrow. But it's often accompanied by claims that the Dubs are overrated and resentment that the team is excessively hyped by the media.

Detailing such exaggerations is difficult because in general Dublin suffer more than any other county from excessive examination of their failings. The 1970s have overshadowed the last three decades for all of the successors of Kevin Heffernan's teams.

Statistics bear out the essential ordinariness of Dublin's track record over the decades that span two-thirds of the GAA's history.

By the end of the 1923 All-Ireland Dublin was by far the most successful football county. In less than 40 years of All-Ireland competition the capital had won 14 titles. There was an obvious benefit for the county in the lack of a modern roads network or a public transport system in that players from around Ireland, who came to Dublin to work, had little choice but to transfer to their county of residence.

That All-Ireland was a watershed because in the years and decades that followed the county's 14th success a far less dominant existence became the norm even allowing for the emergence of Kerry as incomparably the leading force in the game.

One simple comparison underlines the radical power shift. In more than 80 years since 1923 Dublin have won just eight All-Irelands, four of which were in the 10-year period of Heffernan's and Tony Hanahoe's spells in charge.

Over the same span of time Kerry have come from five All-Irelands (not unimpressive when set against the fact that the county's first was the 1903 title - by which stage Dublin had eight) to 34. This means that since 1923 Kerry have outscored their chief rivals on the roll of honour by 29-8.

In fact Galway, with nine, have also won more All-Irelands over this period than Dublin. Meath, on seven, have just one fewer.

That's not the way the public sees it, however. With a population of over a million, the capital has huge advantages of resource but equally the biggest challenge in bringing Gaelic games to such a vast catchment area.

In the age of television and qualifiers Dublin also has sufficient visibility to be a perennial presence at All-Ireland level. But were the county to regress in terms of performance to the pre-Heffernan era it would simply mean a massive void within the GAA.

But even with the enhanced possibilities of the qualifier system Dublin are just about a top-eight team. Only once have they failed to reach the quarter-finals but taken as a whole since the introduction of the new championship in 2001, the county's record is no better than joint sixth, as judged by progress to All-Ireland semi-finals.

This is the reality manager Paul Caffrey and his selectors must face, as they set about coming to terms with expectations within the county and the sceptical gaze of the rest of the country.

One other landmark statistic falls this year. It is now 12 seasons since Dublin last won the All-Ireland, the same gap that was bridged in 1995. It's not the longest wait for a title in the city but only 1923-42 and 1942-'58 were longer. And it's sometimes forgotten that though Heffernan's team arrived like a meteorite in 1974, it had been only 11 years since the previous time Sam Maguire had stayed in the city after September.

Interestingly there are some parallels that can be drawn between Pat O'Neill's team in '95 and Caffrey's side this year. Both managers are in their third year, having served as selectors during their predecessors' time. Both are at a similar stage of the team-building process, having started a nearly identical number of different players over those three years (O'Neill 25 and Caffrey 24).

But the basic numbers hide the fact in critical positions the 1990s' team was far more settled.

Of the 16 matches, 1993-95, full back Dermot Deasy missed only one (unfortunately for him the successful '95 final against Tyrone) whereas Keith Barr played 13 of those matches at centre back (missing the first three through initially suspension and a quickly abandoned experiment playing in the forwards).

The current team has had a new full back every year and even though Bryan Cullen is now established at centre back he has played there in only half of the team's 12 matches over the three-year period.

Going into a third year of both managements, there were and are sound reservations about the county's credentials. Twelve years ago there was a feeling Dublin, for all their warrior relentlessness, were always going to be fractionally off the pace. They were football's most consistent team but each year whenever they played the season's form team they came up frustratingly short.

The same applies to the current team albeit at a slightly lower level. But in each of the past five years Dublin have been eliminated from the championship by a side that went on to reach the final, twice, or win the All-Ireland, three times.

But the differences of experience are more significant than the similarities. Whereas O'Neill's team were squeaked out of a succession of championships by the eventual champions (ironically, counties from Ulster, none of whom had ever previously beaten Dublin), the current side has been appreciably off the pace set by the best teams.

Although 2005 champions Tyrone were taken to a replay by Dublin, the configuration which won the All-Ireland for Mickey Harte's team only emerged halfway through the drawn match. Although that was obviously to their opponents' credit, Tyrone won the remaining three halves of football by 3-24 to 1-18.

Last year's defeat by Mayo may have been artificially distorted by the Connacht side's collapse in the final but many feel Dublin would have struggled to stay with Kerry.

Mickey Moran, who with Derry in 1993 and Mayo last year has twice been involved in plotting Dublin's downfall in All-Ireland semi-finals, reckons there has been improvement. "They've learned from last year and aren't making as many changes during the match: a switch here, a substitution there. I think last year the rotation (tactic in the forwards) went against them. They're tremendous athletes - you can see the strength and conditioning work - and they play an exciting brand of football.

"There's more cohesion in the forwards. Of course there's pressure. They're in the capital and can't avoid being a focal point from day to day but I think they keep it on an even keel."

Tomorrow's encounter with an Offaly side smarting from demotion to Division Four of the National League won't revise too many assessments of where Dublin stand but it should push the Leinster champions to within a match of another All-Ireland quarter-final. It's only thereafter that firmer conclusions can be drawn about this team's direction.