To go through from the group we will have to finish above either Spain or Italy – Italy, most probably, writes BRIAN KERR

ANYONE FROM outside Ireland looking at the Euro 2012 draw would probably regard Group C as straightforward enough: most would just assume Spain and Italy will go through. For me, though, it’s by no means a foregone conclusion – I might not go so far as to say there are grounds for huge optimism, but there are, at least, grounds for hope.

Of course it’s a tough draw, there’s no doubt about that, you look at Group A – with Poland, the Czech Republic, Greece and Russia – and you realise it could have been a whole lot kinder to us. Mind you, you look at Group B – the Netherlands, Denmark, Portugal and Germany – and it could have been worse.

To go through from the group we will have to finish above either Spain or Italy – Italy, most probably.

Spain and Italy, as we know, have a tremendous pedigree, they’re two of the great footballing nations. But while the Spanish are the team of our time, Italy have been in decline. Even though he said before the draw he didn’t want them in our group, privately I think Giovanni Trapattoni would be quite happy to get Italy; he’ll enjoy scheming against his own country.

The Faroe Islands were in the same group as Italy in the qualifying campaign, and while they beat us 5-0 in Florence it was only 1-0 in Torshavn, and I can’t say I was all that impressed by them. But they went in to those qualifiers on the back of an embarrassing World Cup where, having been drawn in a handy-enough-looking group with Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand, they finished bottom and went home.

Their success at the 2006 World Cup papered over a lot of cracks. Italian football has been in decline for many years, they’ve had just three Champions League winners in the last 15 seasons, which, by Italy’s standards, is a poor enough return. And the very fact that most of their leading players are still in Italy, rather than in the English Premier League, where the big money is, says a lot.

They were fortunate enough with their qualifying group; it looked as though Serbia would be their main challengers but after the crowd trouble involving Serb supporters in Genoa the match was abandoned and Italy were awarded the game 3-0. After that Serbia dropped points away to Estonia, who – as we know – finished as runners-up, which, I think, said a lot about the quality of the group. It all panned out easily enough for Italy.

Cesare Prandelli, who replaced Marcello Lippi after the 2010 World Cup, is trying to rebuild the team, but he still hasn’t settled on a preferred 11, using over 40 players in the qualifiers. And he doesn’t have much time or many games between now and Euro 2012 to get it right. On top of that, Antonio Cassano and Giuseppe Rossi, who he usually played up front together, are both doubts for the tournament.

So, I don’t think it’s the worst time to be playing Italy; we’re definitely capable of doing something against them. Trapattoni will, obviously, know the Italians’ mentality and should know their players inside out. He should also be capable of coming up with a plan to deal with the way they play.

Croatia? Before the draw I said they were one of the “outsiders” to watch, and here they are, in our group. They’ve a talented squad of players, gifted technically, none more so than Luka Modric, who pulls the strings in midfield for his national team, just as he does for Spurs.

There’s a huge amount of experience in the squad, Croatia – like Ireland – punching above their weight since independence, qualifying for four of the last five major tournaments.

They also have a manager in Slaven Bilic who will know our players well from his time in England.

But out of the three games in the group, it’s the one we’ll feel most hopeful about, and if we can take something from it, we’ll go in to our second game, against Spain, in good shape.

But Spain, of course, are a different kettle of fish – reigning World and European champions.

The simple fact is that unless Trapattoni changes from his rigid 4-4-2, we’ll spend most of the game with very little possession, running around, chasing the ball.

We need to learn from how England played them in their recent friendly at Wembley, when Fabio Capello changed his usual tactics, played five in midfield, with Phil Jones the holding player in front of the back four.

As Alan Smith put it on Sky last night, it was almost 6-3-1, but that’s what you have to do against Spain if you’re to stop them dominating possession.

When you look at the quality of players they have it’s quite frightening, but they have vulnerabilities too, especially at the back.

Their full backs attack so much it can leave their central defenders exposed, and their lack of height in that area means you can cause problems from set-pieces – if you ever win the ball enough to earn corners or free-kicks.

I reckon our best chance in the group is if Spain beat Italy in their opening game, leaving Italy with a maximum of three points before they play us in the last group game. Hopefully, we’ll have points on the board by then, making that – possibly – the game that will decide who will go through with Spain.

Whatever, it will be a fantastic experience for our players to take on Spain and Italy at Euro 2012. It’s a challenge they will, I’m sure, relish rather than fear. We’re well organised, we have a good spirit and great morale – it’s quite possible that we can do something extraordinary.