Form isn't all but Leinster have the edge

RUGBY/ MAGNERS LEAGUE:ABOUT THE only fixture which could have revived flagging interests and spirits in the aftermath of that dispiriting European semi-final weekend was this. After those Heineken Cup dreams were shattered, will this matter? Will it what.

That the Euro fall-out was so grim perhaps shows that the players, coaches, fans and media alike perhaps place too much store in the Heineken Cup. A packed Saturday night under lights at the RDS should see a sea of blue and red, and, hopefully, all carried off in the true spirit of Irish rugby.

As much as anything else, tonight’s semi-final also shows how beneficial the belated introduction of play-offs will be to the Magners League. This, after all, is a meeting between the league winners of the last two seasons. The absence of play-offs, and a guaranteed climax, probably contributes to the relative lack of recognition for the last two league triumphs.

Munster are seeking to become the first team to retain the Celtic crown, and though coach Tony McGahan used last week’s gutsy, sleeves-rolled-up bonus-point defeat in Cardiff to rest a few weary bodies, they still appear the more careworn of the two.

This is arguably reflected in their eye-catching selection. While they welcome back Doug Howlett (who returns after a five-week absence since the Heineken Cup quarter-final win over Northampton), Keith Earls, Paul Warwick and Tomás O’Leary to a much stronger-looking backline, and John Hayes, Mick O’Driscoll and Alan Quinlan to a more familiar looking pack, Earls and Howlett have had limited time on the training ground.

Furthermore, in addition to the absent Paul O’Connell, Denis Leamy, Donncha Ryan, Ian Dowling, Tony Buckley, Denis Fogarty, Barry Murphy, Felix Jones, Darragh Hurley and Cillian O’Boyle, David Wallace has been dropped to the bench in favour of Niall Ronan, while Jerry Flannery, though fit again, backs up Damien Varley.

“Both Damien and Niall have been excellent in their performances from the bench in the last five or six weeks,” explained McGahan, “so we felt that them starting would be the best thing for us for their particular game. Jerry and David have both had a long season, disrupted by injury etc, so we’re looking for Damien and Niall to lay a really solid platform early on, and then we have those two world-class players to come off the bench and finish the game off for us.”

As for O’Connell’s groin injury, McGahan confirmed there seems little hope of him making the tour to New Zealand and Australia. “At this stage he’ll be gone for the summer tour.”

Munster are arguably now used to being without O’Connell, who last played for them in the pool win over Northampton in January, whereas Leinster must now cope without their lineout organiser Leo Cullen.

But this is offset by the return of Jonathan Sexton and Shane Jennings, as captain, not to mention Malcolm O’Kelly. And the choreographed retirement announcements of O’Kelly and Girvan Dempsey seem almost to be taking a leaf from the Munster Motivational Manual.

Time was when this fixture usually went to the team who was at home and bore a grudge, but Leinster are seeking their first four-in-row since the interpros of 1983-86, and three of the last six league meetings have been won by the away side.

Coach Michael Cheika says that counts for little, and Munster’s Anthony Foley believes what has gone before or will happen subsequently matters little.

Yet it’s hard to ignore the form of this fixture, with Leinster having had the more reliable set-pieces, won the collisions handsomely (which Cheika says will again be the key) and scored seven tries to none in the last three meetings, with their defence completely negating Munster’s momentum around the fringes and any threats farther out.

“Obviously Leinster have had a tremendous season so far,” McGahan said, “in the Heineken and in topping the Magners (table), so we go up there as big underdogs.

“No one’s really expecting us to come even close to them,” he added, tapping into the Munster zeitgeist as they revel in their outsiders’ tag.

“There’s no disputing the results, you can’t argue with the stats. For us it’s all to play for and to make sure we come out and put in a Munster performance.”

Yet it’s equally hard to overlook the recent formguide, for not only have Munster lost their last three games, but Leinster lost no shame in their defeat in Toulouse, played much better last weekend and have generally performed in the big games for the last 18 months.

They’re also at their RDS citadel, where they haven’t lost since October, where they’ve won nine from nine in the league this season – though Munster were the last team to beat them in the league there in September ’08.

Of course, as that example and countless others in the last decade underline, few teams can chuck formguides out the window more readily than Munster, especially when in wounded underdog mode.

Betting: 1/2 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, 13/8 Munster. Handicap (Munster + 5 pts) 10/11 Leinster, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Munster.

Forecast: Leinster to win.

In the event of a draw at full time, the team which have scored the most tries in the match will be deemed the winners. If the number of tries is tied, extra time will be played, and if the teams are still tied on points and tries at the end of extra time then the winners will be determined by a place-kick competition. Each team will nominate three goal-kickers who will take six place-kicks between them from different positions along the 22-metre and 10-metre lines. The team with the most place-kicks scored will be the winners. If the teams are tied at the end of their six kicks, then sudden death will apply.