Dogmatic statements in racing usually end up falling to earth more quickly than burning Spitfires, but even in such a quality field as today's Jefferson Smurfit Irish St Leger it's hard not to shout Ebadiyla's winning chance to the skies.
The Aga Khan-owned filly's credentials for the final classic look watertight. A win in last year's French Leger proved her stamina, success in the Irish Oaks proved her class, she will relish the cut in the ground and, with John Murtagh on her back, she has a jockey riding with complete confidence.
Even a formidable cross-channel challenge doesn't induce the normal jitters. Silver Patriarch is another genuine Group One performer who, when winning June's Coronation Cup at Epsom, had Ebadiyla almost two lengths back in third. As a winner of last year's Doncaster Leger, Pat Eddery's mount is going for a unique double and, at his best, would be a very dangerous opponent.
But he hasn't really been at his best in three races since Epsom, where Ebadiyla also looked slightly unlucky. Silver Patriarch also lacks a certain versatility in the course of his races and has already been well beaten in a Curragh classic.
John Reid bids to become the first rider since Richard Quinn (1990) to win the English and Irish Legers in the same year, and has come in for the ride on Godolphin's Ascot Gold Cup winner Kayf Tara. Sheikh Mohammed's camp are making encouraging noises about the horse, but he could find himself wanting for pace in the very highest class. That could also apply to the Park Hill winner Delilah.
Quws, whose former stable companion Oscar Schindler won this race in 1996 and 1997, looks best of the rest of the home team, but Ebadiyla's credentials for a third classic win look good. After the failure of the Aga Khan's Zainta to stay in last Sunday's Prix Vermeille, Ebadiyla could become the Aga's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe representative, and, with soft ground in Paris, current Arc odds of 25 to 1 look quite tempting. All that is conditional on her winning today, but the conditions look likely to be met.
Only five line up for the Group Three MacDonagh Boland Stakes and, if he was at his best, the English-trained Ramooz would look a clear favourite. He has disappointed in his last two races, but seven furlongs with a cut in the ground is usually ideal for him and he gets that here. Playacting could be his main danger.
The £25,000 Paribas Bank Handicap is an intensely competitive affair, but after two efforts over a mile plus, Jimmy The Greek reverts back to the course and distance over which he won the Scurrys in late June. On that occasion, Paddy Prendergast's horse made virtually all the running to beat One Won One, Diligent Dodger and Symboli Kildare in impressive fashion and a repeat performance is by no means out of the question.
The day's sponsor, Dr Michael Smurfit, can see his colours carried to victory when the Indian Ridge filly Timote, runner-up to Grandiose Idea over a mile at Tralee, goes in the six-furlong maiden, while in the concluding mile and a half race, the track winner Yuan can go one better than his second to Balla Sola at Leopardstown last weekend. Down Royal's fixture has a 2.30 kick-off, and punters can get off to a good start with Kid Vid in the maiden hurdle. Paul Carberry's mount has hurdling experience and showed ability when taking a bumper at Leopardstown last time. Tribal has shown enough to win the following flat maiden, while Ballymote will be hard to stop in the sprint handicap.
