Dreams of an Ireland Slam seem far too grand

On Rugby:Odds of 13 to 8 about a country which hasn't won the Five/Six Nations title since 1985, and a mere 3 to 1 to complete only a second Grand Slam and their first in 59 years, does not represent great value, and Paddy Power are being more generous than most at those odds.

Hence, those who had the prescience to snap up the 8 to 1 about Ireland to win the Six Nations after last year's campaign, or even the 3 to 1 or 10 to 3 to win the title and 9 to 2 for the Grand Slam, which were generally available before Ireland's November wins, are the only ones clutching good-value betting slips.

Grand Slams used to be almost as rare as hen's teeth, and to be cherished accordingly. But there were six in the 1990s (three by England, two by France and one by Scotland), before a three-year break, whereupon, since the turn of the millennium, there were Grand Slams in 2002 (France), 2003 (England ), 2004 (France) and 2005 (Wales).

This strange spate of Grand Slams has served to devalue what is a hell of an achievement, namely to finish top of the Six Nations. Furthermore, England's repeated habit of coming within one match of the Grand Slam before their 2003 success at Lansdowne Road further devalued winning the title outright in the eyes of Clive Woodward, especially, the English players and supporters, and their media. In one year they won a Triple Crown and it hardly registered a yawn, much less a mention.

Though recent history (10 Grand Slams in the last 16 years) might argue otherwise, the likeliest outcome is that there will be no Grand Slam winner (which Paddy Power have at 8 to 11). After Ireland at 3 to 1, France are unusually good value at 11 to 2 (probably because they have to travel to Croke Park and Twickenham, as well as Rome this Saturday); England are probably the best value at 8 to 1, with Wales 20 to 1, Scotland 100 to 1 and Italy 500 to 1.

Wales have the same itinerary as two years ago when they won the Grand Slam for the first time in 27 years, and, having collected the wooden spoon the year before, could be backed at 50 to 1 or 66 to 1 at this point. Even then, they more than rode their luck in that magnificent match in Stade de France. Ireland coach Eddie O'Sullivan, among others, was telling everybody that Wales were the proverbial dark horses two years ago, but viewed in that light there is nothing like the same value around this time.

Certainly not Ireland, not at those odds. Banana skins await at every turn. At the very least, there are question marks about the Ireland pack and primarily their lineout.

True, Wales have their own problems and may not reproduce the rugby of two years ago; some, such as Shane Williams and Mark Jones, are recovering from injury; there is a suspension cloud hanging over Gareth Thomas which could mean a James Hook-Hal Luscombe midfield, with Gavin Henson gambled upon at fullback.

Nonetheless, first up on their Cardiff turf, they have regrouped after the remarkable implosions of last year and are buoyant again. So for Ireland it is an eminently loseable game.

We routinely describe France, first up at Croker in round two, as mercurial, but given coach Bernard Laporte's decision to rotate all 40 of his squad as a World Cup trial run, they're liable to be more unpredictable than ever. And Laporte, facing into his eighth championship and his fourth in readiness for staging the World Cup, still hasn't found the spine of his side, at numbers eight, nine, 10 (as ever) and 15. But they derailed Ireland in Dublin two years ago, when Ireland's Slam hopes were also much hyped after three straight wins.

Ireland have beaten England three times in a row, and will be seeking to emulate the runs of 1896-'99 and 1939, '47, '48 and '49. If so, they would be within one game of the record against the Red Rose, the five-timer from 1972-'76.

However, as Leicester showed at Thomond Park, it would be just like England to come to Croke Park and be the party poopers. They are also, arguably, the team best equipped to copy the Tigers' template. England coach Brian Ashton may be a purveyor of the beautiful game, and he has taken a gamble with Jonny Wilkinson and Andy Farrell.

But the selection of Mike Tindall ahead of Matthew Tait does not point to total rugby just yet, all the more so with their power up front. And, if the gambles pay off, by the time they come to Dublin England could well have the momentum generated both by a new head coach and home wins over Scotland and Italy. That will hardly look a gimme.

If Ireland were somehow to be three-from-three after that match, no doubt the country would be in a tizzy, and ready to place Brian O'Driscoll and his team-mates alongside Jackie Kyle and co, circa 1948.

Yet here lurks another banana skin: those dastardly Scots.

You think not? Under Frank Hadden, their set-piece organisation, lineout maul, defence and high kicking percentage were enough to scalp both France and England at Murrayfield last season. Come Ireland's visit to Edinburgh on March 10th in round four, the Scots will have had back-to-back home games against Wales and Italy and could, conceivably, be chasing a third home win in succession.

Recall too, how Ireland went to a bottom-of-the-table Wales in the penultimate leg of a putative Grand Slam four years ago and nearly came a cropper before Ronan O'Gara's late drop goal and Denis Hickie's even later chargedown. Whereupon England won the winner-takes-all shoot-out by 46-6 at Lansdowne Road. But that Scottish trip could be far trickier than looks at first glance. Okay, if Ireland were four-from-four heading to Rome, you'd be confident, even if the Azzurri's juggernaut has caused Ireland problems up front.

The best value is probably England to win the championship at 7 to 2 (not France at 2 to 1, even though they've won three of the last five titles) - if you could bring yourself to do it.

This column managed to get Ireland at 4 to 1 for the Slam, so that will have to do. No, it doesn't make especially good value, but there you go.