Connacht can't afford slip-up now

Celtic League Connacht v Cardiff Blues Arms Park, today, 5.30: Every game from now until season's end is do or die. So, nothing new there from a Connacht perspective. Forget Munster's quest for the holy grail; mere qualification to the Heineken European Cup is the main objective for the western province.

They must surpass both the Dragons and Glasgow, who played each other last night, to reach a play-off against Italian opposition. A slip at this late stage will see their rivals disappear into the distance.

Cardiff, last season, were the first team to qualify for Europe's premier competition through the play-off path and now look to be the only non-Irish side capable of winning the Celtic League title.

Among the motivations for Cardiff this evening are the upcoming games against Ulster, Leinster and Munster. If they cannot put Connacht to the sword at home they can forget about making inroads at Ravenhill or Thomond Park.

Cardiff have kept Martyn Williams in reserve, while Jonah Lomu's constant battle with injury means he will not have the pleasure of facing an Irish province. The Blues supporters bid adieu to Lomu this evening with a half-time presentation before his return to North Harbour and NPC rugby. He will be joined on the pitch by Craig Quinnell, Dean Dewdney and Dan Baugh, all recently forced to retire because of injury.

Connacht welcome back captain Andrew Farley and John Hearty at lock and centre respectively, with David Gannon and Andrew Mailei making way.

Another interesting tactic from Michael Bradley is Mark McHugh at outhalf. The centre-cum-fullback is preferred to David Slemen and Paul Warwick, although the latter wears the number 15 jersey.

Injury-enforced changes see Dan McFarland replace Ray Hogan and Conor McPhilips in for Darren Yapp, while Gavin Williams continues to deputise for Keith Matthews at inside centre.

Despite the visiting backline's obvious intent, the Cardiff runners have a more menacing look to them, with Rhys Williams and Craig Morgan poised to do damage. The halfback pairing of Mike Philips and Nick Robinson are equally potent.

Former All Black Xavier Rush and Gethin Jenkins will marshal a decent pack in the absence of Williams, though the Welsh flanker is certain to make an appearance.

Hard to see these combinations being denied, especially as Cardiff are chasing a bonus point to keep the pressure on Leinster and Ulster. It could be a long night for Connacht, with nothing left to play for at the end.

CARDIFF: R Williams (capt); C Czekaj, M Stcherbina, T Davies, C Morgan; N Robinson, M Phillips; J Yapp, R Thomas, G Jenkins; D Jones, R Sidoli; K Schubert, R Sowden-Taylor, X Rush. Replacements: S Roberts, D Goodfield, M Lewis, M Williams, R Powell, N Macleod, L Thomas.

CONNACHT: P Warwick; M Mostyn, J Hearty, G Williams, C McPhillips; M McHugh, C Keane; D McFarland, J Fogarty, S Knoop; C Short, A Farley (capt); M Swift, J Muldoon, C Rigney. Replacements: J Merrigan, A Clarke, D Gannon, M Lacey, T Tierney, D Slemen, T Robinson.

Referee: Peter Allan (SRU)

Top scorers: Cardiff - Nick Robinson 158; Connacht - Paul Warwick 93.

Top try scorers: Cardiff - Chris Czekaj and Nick Robinson 6; Connacht - Conor McPhilips 4.

Verdict: Cardiff to win.

On TV: Setanta Sports