Belvedere cunning will be crucial

LEINSTER SCHOOLS' SENIOR CUP FINAL PREVIEW/Belvedere College v St Mary's College:"WHAT'S THE most you ever lost on a coin toss?" Anton Chigurh, No Country For Old Men. Call it. Before this year's competition got under way, Belvedere were cast in the unenviable role of favourites. Clongowes Wood College and CBC Monkstown were seen as contenders, and of course Blackrock, as ever, were potential champions if they could generate enough momentum.

St Mary's were also-rans, only rated because of a relatively easy passage to the semi-final where CBC's offloading, All Blacks-style continuity game was supposed to quell any lofty ambitions they held out Rathmines way. The coaching think-tank of Rodney O'Donnell and Dave Breslin rubbed their hands. Underrated, nine of this group had the benefit of forcing Clongowes to a replay in last year's quarter-final. They possessed enough hurt and experience not to wilt in the face of any opponent.

After sussing CBC in the video room, they adopted a schools cup, do-or-die, approach, rode their luck early on - thanks in the main to an astonishing try-saving tackle from winger Ian O'Neill on Shane Grannell - as they proceeded to deconstruct the Monkstown game plan. 22-10 is an emphatic result in any man's language.

They constantly hoisted Owen McGill and Ronan Lennon in the air on the opposition throw, decimating their lineout, while props Jack McGrath and Robert Ferris can take credit for wheeling every CBC scrum, thus denying Leinster under-19 number eight Michael Noone a platform to attack.

Belvedere will have surely seen this and alternate their lineout jumpers while varying the point of attack off scrums.

Most impressively though was the St Mary's defensive work at the breakdown. The Leinster Schools' Cup would thrive under the new ELV laws being tested in the Super 14 as it is a throwback to the days of counterrucking when the number seven was king.

Captain Richard Bent and company drew a defensive line across the CBC 22 with a clear message: thou shalt not pass. They rarely rolled away in the tackle either, creating a nightmarish scenario for a team who evidently couldn't breath without scope to enact a continuity game.

Belvedere, under their new coach and former international lock Gabriel Fulcher, will meet fire with fire. St Mary's must find a way to remove the black-and-white bodies to ensure quick ball so vital in releasing the highly dangerous back three of O'Neill, Ray Crotty and Darren Hudson.

Belvedere, who seek a 10th title while St Mary's are chasing number six, possess an enormous forward unit. Their progress to the final becomes more admirable considering they lost their giant prop Nermin Lovic to a dislocated shoulder in the nerve-jangling opening-round victory over Terenure. This forced Fulcher to switch blindside flanker Chris O'Brien to frontrow and promote Caolan Doyle.

With centre Niall Myron also injured for the quarter-final against Roscrea, they struggled home thanks to a Ben Woods try but this lacked the drama of Michael Keating's last-minute try against Terenure. A nod towards replacement outhalf Rowan Considine for putting the fullback in space; he is now the starting 10.

Belvedere failed to reach their full attacking potential in the semi-final defeat of Clongowes but they were immense in defence, captain Tom Sexton taking responsibility beyond his years by forcing a yellow card due to constant infringement. His men held out for the remaining seconds. Openside Peter Synnott is another crucial spoke in the Belvedere wheel.

A tight, rigid match is expected. An arm wrestle between two decent packs - watch out for the giant St Mary's lock Robbie Field - but best chance of success for St Mary's may lie in opening the supply lines to the speedsters early and with regularity.

This has been the hardest campaign to call for some time. The north-inner-city Jesuit rugby nursery have the street smarts to prevail.

BELVEDERE COLLEGE (probable): M Keating; J Conroy, N Myron, C O'Shea, B Woods; R Considine, D Traynor; C O'Brien, T Sexton (capt), CJ Barry; L Mangan, E Browne; C Doyle, P Synnott, D Memery.

ST MARY'S COLLEGE: D Hudson; I O'Neill, M Walsh, P Finnegan, R Crotty; D Fitzgerald, S O'Donnell; J McGrath, W Andreucetti, R Ferris; O McGill, R Field; R Lennon, B O'Connell, R Bent (capt).

Referee: A Rogan (ARLB).