England v Italy: The combination of a poor weather forecast, a motivated England pack and the unerring boot of Jonny Wilkinson is ominous at the best of times.
Take away the injured Mauro Bergamasco, factor in last week's 39-3 home drubbing by France and the prospect of Italy defying Six Nations logic at Twickenham today seems about as likely as Bernard Matthews cooking the post-match dinner.
This is not to say Italy do not also possess a strong set of forwards, a canny coach in Pierre Berbizier and an obvious desire to atone for their French disappointment. It is simply their misfortune to be facing an England side of rapidly mounting confidence for whom complacency is still a foreign concept.
Even as Wilkinson stubbornly continued his kicking practice in bitterly cold, wet conditions yesterday, his team-mate Josh Lewsey was delivering an unequivocal message to the English public.
"The squad are not underestimating Italy and I hope the Twickenham crowd don't either," he warned, aware the visitors will seek to drag England into a close-quarter scrap at the first opportunity.
"If it's wet and cold you've got to be pragmatic. If that means winning ugly, then so be it. We want to go out and play rugby but this Italian side are a lot better than they were even two years ago. Don't expect it to be some sort of sevens game. I think it'll be a real dogfight."
Accuracy, therefore, is England's priority in every facet of the game, not least the lineout. The head coach, Brian Ashton, also described the conceding of 14 penalties against Scotland last week as "unacceptable" and is looking to his pack, including the debutant flanker Nick Easter, to seize control from the outset.
"Italy will take us on in the scrum and in the lineout, they will box-kick and they will be very confrontational," predicted Ashton.
"The lineout could be a huge theatre because Italy did a lot of damage to France in that area. From numbers one to eight it's going to be a fair old battleground."
Even if the rain stays away, Italy will have to shore up their leaky defence. Their three previous Six Nations visits to Twickenham have resulted in an aggregate tally of 159-35 and they have yet to win away since entering the fray in 2000. That achingly long wait looks sure to continue.
- Guardian Service
