There is no time to hang about – emissions need to peak by 2025

A global push towards sustainability backed by a scaling up of climate actions, which emerged from the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow last November, gained momentum over following months. But nobody anticipated the side-on derailment that came from the combination of soaring energy prices and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that has marked early 2022.

Within a few months energy security and the acute need for lower energy prices has become the overriding issue for many governments and, arguably, has pushed the climate crisis into second place. Unfortunately it always seems that the threat to Planet Earth arising from global overheating, though it poses an existential risk, is never the immediate emergency to be dealt with – though the horror of the ongoing war and the economic pain from soaring energy prices must be fully acknowledged.

The latest verdict issued earlier this month from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows that relegating the issue on the priorities list can no longer continue. We have reached the “now or never” moment if we are to have any chance of containing average global temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees while avoiding irreversible and increasing catastrophic impacts this century.

If the world is to have any chance of avoiding the ravages of climate disruption, including climate-related extreme weather events, the single most effective action is weaning off fossil fuels while scaling up renewables. There is not time to hang about; emissions need to peak by 2025; we need to reduce them by close to 50 per cent by 2030 and push on to net-zero emissions before 2050.

Significantly, the IPCC outlines how these emissions cuts can be achieved through a broad range of mitigation actions, including increased energy efficiency, ramped-up electrification and use of alternative energy carriers, such as hydrogen.

Moreover, it points out renewable energy – notably wind and solar – is already cheaper than fossil fuels, which provides perfectly sound business reasons to immediately move investments and subsidies towards renewable energy. And they offer greater price stability in contrast to volatility associated with energy imports and long supply chains.

Opportunities

Allied to the tangible benefits in switching quickly – both for consumers and the environment – there are distinct opportunities for Ireland. The potential of offshore wind – whether through deployment of fixed or floating turbines – combined with electrolyser technology to generate green hydrogen brings the prospect of energy security, decarbonisation at scale and, ultimately, becoming an energy exporter in the 2030s.

Two issues arise in that scenario. Firstly, Ireland has an insufficiently resourced planning system to process major infrastructural projects such as a large offshore wind farm, which increasingly entail investment in excess of €1 billion, leading to big uncertainties on timelines and delivery.

Secondly, at EU level the energy transition is in peril. Supply chains are struggling, so the bloc is only building half the plant needed to meet climate targets. Price pressures from auctions, high raw-material costs are not helping matters – notwithstanding the ambitious REPowerEU plan drawn up in the wake of the Russian invasion entailing plans to expand wind generation from 190 gigawatts today to 480GW by 2030.

This is not helped by the supply industry (including turbine and cable manufacturers) working on extremely tight margins – not to mention the impacts from a small number of major companies dominating the manufacturing of turbines at global level.

On a more positive note there are strong indications, as highlighted in the latest issue of Sustainable Ireland, of efforts to embrace sustainability and to reduce emissions in Ireland significantly. As the IPCC has highlighted, we have the tools to slow down warming; to shift away from reliance on fossil fuels and to reduce emissions quickly.

Heavy price

Where the world is right now – and particularly Ireland with its emissions still on a rising curve – means, however, we are not in the right place. Climatologist Peter Thorne of Maynooth University gave it to us straight: "Climate change is the story of our lifetimes. But it is rarely the story of today. There is almost always a more pressing issue be it a pandemic, a war, housing, healthcare or any number of other issues. Yet if we do not act on climate change we will pay a heavy price."

That adds up to a requirement for bold action and rapid delivery – and that applies equally to the Government, policy-makers, State agencies, businesses, communities and individuals.