Good morning.
That ticking sound you can hear is the clock running down to Budget 2027. Two weeks from now, the printing presses will be busily churning out the last copies of the budget books and we should know almost everything that Minister for Finance Simon Harris and Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers will tell the Dáil later in the day.
As with every other budget, we know a fair amount already. But Budget 2027 feels different – like the margin for error is extradorindarily tight.
There is blowback after every budget – from the fabled landmines that unexpectedly and suddenly went off to more slow-burn fallouts such as the one that gathered momentum for months after last year’s hospitality VAT cut/lack of income tax break. But in recent years, budget day itself has come and gone without massive fanfare. This year, however, the pressures are particularly acute, and the balancing act feels especially intricate.
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Voters are under pressure and expect (among other things) tax cuts, big interventions on childcare and energy and something for carers and disabled people, while the perennial pressure on healthcare and education spending is complicated by overruns. The key personalities and political relationships have shifted too – it is Harris’s first budget as Finance Minister, while Chambers has been enthusiastically embracing his role as the Government’s hard man on spending. Plus, no Paschal Donohoe for the first time in a decade.
Against this backdrop, the exchequer coffers continue to be stuffed by corporation tax returns. Experience suggests that when facing extreme pressure, the Coalition turns to this cash pile. Will it be tempted do so again?
The refrain from Ministers and Coalition leaders is, correctly, that no budget can soothe all ailments. Nonetheless, October 6th will inevitably advertise that fact while putting the focus on all of them. No matter what levers the Government pulls, there may be more written about what it has not done than what it has. And with voters feeling cranky with an unloved Government, the costs could be higher for messing up.
New York, New York
It’s high-level week at the United Nations General Assembly – the annual jamboree billed as the largest event in the diplomatic calendar.
Expect news from New York in the middle of the day, where the Taoiseach is joined by Minister for Foreign Affairs Helen McEntee, Minister for Climate Darragh O’Brien, and junior ministers Timmy Dooley and Neale Richmond.
The opening session, followed by a Taoiseach doorstep with the travelling press corps, is at 9am New York time. Micheál Martin will have bilateral meetings in the afternoon including with the crown prince of Jordan and the prime minister of Iraq.
Later on he will co-host a Save the Children event on Palestinian children in Israeli military detention with the queen of Jordan, and then he will attend an event to mark a year since the signing of the Gaza peace plan hosted by Emmanuel Macron, Andy Burnham and Mark Carney. There’s a reception for leaders in the evening.
McEntee is speaking at a Global Food Security event on Black Sea exports hosted by the Ukrainians at 1.15pm NYC time/6.15pm Irish time.
O’Brien has bilateral meetings and will also attend a meeting on energy transitions, possibly holding a bilateral with the UK. He will discuss environmental multilateralism in the evening.
Richmond will attend an event on food crises in times of disruption, among other things, while Dooley’s events include a gala dinner to celebrate the deceleration of sea-level rises.
Best reads
Here is our front-page lead on the future of Kinahan cartel founder Christy Kinahan snr.
Fintan O’Toole on how Ireland’s place on the map got a lot less central.
Eamon Ryan on what links Ireland and Tuvalu (incidentally, Timmy Dooley is meeting the Tuvaluans in New York today).
Irish houses are overvalued. But will prices fall? Fiona Reddan considers the answer.
The countdown is on to the most political sporting events of the year as Ireland’s men’s football team prepares to face Israel. The temperature is climbing:
Denis Staunton on Donald Trump’s Iran, er, “strategy”.
Hannah McCarthy visits waste pickers at Africa’s largest dumping site.
Playbook
With Cabinet done and dusted for the week, the first political action of the day will be the round of Opposition press conferences on the Leinster House plinth, before action moves indoors with a round of committee meetings.
Among the more interesting-looking meetings are:
- The AI committee at 11am, which will be hearing about AI and the environment
- Minister of State John Cummins is at the Housing Committee to talk about rural planning guidelines – that’s at 3pm. Here’s a tee-up of what he’s going to say.
- At the same time, the Justice Committee will be hearing from consultants about the medical risks of scramblers and e-bikes – before chewing the fat with solicitors and barristers on the big showdown with Big Jim O’Callaghan. Here’s some advance coverage.
- Minister for Communications Patrick O’Donovan is at the Communications Committee to talk about the Broadcasting (Amendment) Bill 2026, which puts RTÉ under the auditing control of the Comptroller and Auditor General
Here’s the full schedule of committee meetings.
The Dáil kicks off with Leaders’ Questions at 2pm, with Jack Chambers deputising for the Taoiseach, who is in New York.
There are a couple of interesting Bills at first stage in the afternoon – one legislating for a tobacco smoke-free generation, and another relating to allowing a tourist tax for Dublin local authorities.
Sinn Féin has a Private Members Bill on reducing the mineral oil tax on home heating oil at 7pm, before Minister for Enterprise Peter Burke takes Oral Questions at 9pm. Topical Issues rounds the day out at 10.35pm.
Here’s the full schedule.
Over in the Seanad it’s Order of Business at 2pm, and Government Business takes up much of the afternoon.
The full Seanad schedule is here.
Europe Minister Thomas Byrne continues to do the hard yards on the EU budget – he’s in Brussels to chair the GAC on the MFF (that’s the General Affairs Council with a meeting on the Multiannual Financial Framework – or the budget – for the uninitiated).
The nuclear power question continues to ping around in the background – there’s a breakfast seminar held by Energy Law Ireland, with TD James O’Connor (who has argued for nuclear) in attendance.
