Election turnout in general elections may have been habitually higher than estimated, it has emerged.
Figures supplied by returning officers in the byelections in Dublin Central and Galway West last weekend have highlighted the difference between the total electorate and the total number of people entitled to vote in Dáil elections.
The total electorate figure – which is the one used by the returning officers at the counts over the weekend – is larger than the number of voters eligible to vote in Dáil elections.
This means the percentage turnout figure – because it was calculated using the larger total electorate number – has been smaller than it should have been.
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There are different requirements to qualify to be able to vote in different elections. All residents can vote in local elections; all European Union citizens can vote in European Parliament elections; but only Irish and UK citizens (who are habitually resident) can vote in general elections and in byelections.
Count sheets supplied by the Dublin city returning officer in the RDS at the Dublin Central count lastweekend used a figure of 63,658 for the total electorate. However, figures suppled by the Electoral Commission – the State body that oversees elections, though is not responsible for the counts – show the total Dáil electorate in the constituency is 57,619.
Because the larger figure was used to calculate turnout, this was calculated at 39 per cent. However, using the smaller Dáil electorate figure the turnout was 44 per cent.
Dublin city returning officer Joseph Burke confirmed he had used the larger total electorate figure in accordance with previous practice, though he pointed out when asked for the Dáil electorate figure he also supplied this.
This is likely to mean turnout for previous general elections has been significantly underestimated.
Turnout in the last election was calculated at just under 60 per cent, down three points from the 2020 level. Turnout has been falling in recent decades but political scientists say this is in part because the electoral register has become too large. The Electoral Commission has worked with local authorities to “clean up” the register, purging it of duplicates and deceased persons.
Some 7,000 entries were taken from the register in Dublin Central. This has the effect of increasing turnout rates, because the turnout is calculated as a percentage of a smaller figure.
However, it now appears turnout in Dáil elections has been further underestimated because the total register figure has been used to calculate it in the past.
The Electoral Commission is working with local authorities and the Department of Housing and Local Government to investigate the issue. There is no suggestion that anyone not entitled to vote in the byelections was able to vote, as the register makes clear who is eligible for the different elections.
