Good afternoon,
Well, the polls are in – just the actual election to be worried about now. The second Irish Times/TG4 constituency-level poll has landed, showing a tight contest for former Fine Gael minister for finance Paschal Donohoe’s vacated seat in Dublin Central.
The headline figures are covered in detail here in Friday’s Irish Times by Political Editor Pat Leahy. His analysis can be found here.
If you’re in need of a refresher on the details of Dublin Central, our constituency profile is here, while today’s editorial on the same topic is here. Pollster Kieran O’Leary’s verdict is here.
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Such is the wealth of data in our polls, however, that we can’t get it all into the paper. We know that transfers are going to be crucial in Dublin Central, so it’s worth delving into what the poll tells us about where the candidate’s preferences will scatter.
Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats looks likely to be the transfer magnet, and on count day, this will make all the difference if it’s tight at the top. The poll shows Green voters intend to transfer to him at a rate of 32 per cent, People Before Profit (PBP) at 54 per cent and Labour at 22 per cent.
So, among the soft and hard left, Ennis has a significant advantage. And there’s a good bundle of votes there to be had between them; these three candidates have 17 per cent of first preference votes.
Janice Boylan is eclipsed on the left with only 2 per cent of Labour voters swinging for her, and 12 per cent of Green voters. Among PBP voters, the number is stronger at 29 per cent, but still short of Ennis. Interestingly, there will be some votes for Ennis too if he stays in advance of the Government parties – some 14 per cent of Fine Gael voters say they will transfer to the Social Democrats, along with 13 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters (but this is likely to be a smaller number with its candidate failing to ignite).
So, if Boylan is to suck up transfers, where else might they come from? Outside of PBP, her biggest reservoir of votes appears to be among supporters of veteran criminal Gerry Hutch – a quarter of whom, responding, said they would transfer to Sinn Féin (the second most popular preference for his voters, after right-wing Independent Malachy Steenson on 29 per cent).
There’s a scattering of support for Sinn Féin preferences from Independent voters, but it won’t add up to many votes, and it looks like to if it is to prevail, Sinn Féin are going to have to muster the mother and father of byelection first preference votes. And if it’s close between Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats, if Hutch goes out, could his transfers to Sinn Féin prove decisive? Hutch voters split for Ennis at only 8 per cent.
It’s pretty unlikely, but what a story that could be.
Here’s our podcast on the poll results.
And in case we’re accused of being all about Dublin Central, the daring Harry McGee was airborne to Inis Oírr in Galway West this week.
Meanwhile, across the water
What a week in British politics. Could this end up being the slowest defenestration of a prime minister since, er, the one before the last one?
Keir Starmer looks mortally wounded, but he is lucky in his opponents, none of whom are ready to deliver the killer blow.
Here’s our profile of the lad who wielded the knife on Thursday, ex-health secretary Wes Streeting.
While Kathy Sheridan meditates on Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, who could be moving into Downing Street in the medium term?
Meanwhile, Finn McRedmond casts a cold eye on Starmer’s, well, boringness.
The Bert looms over the Fianna Fáil Ardfheis
It’s the Fianna Fáil Ardfheis this weekend – and it’s a big one too, coming on the centenary of the party’s founding. Bad news for Micheál Martin, though – comments from one of his predecessors on immigration have monopolised headlines this week with what Justine McCarthy calls a “stink bomb” in today’s paper.
The party has been scrambling to distance itself from Ahern’s comments, but there are two chances of them not bleeding into the weekend’s coverage of the party: slim and none.
If you fancy a longer view on Fianna Fáil, Ronan McGreevy joined Hugh Linehan and Pat in the Inside Politics podcast studio for a retrospective on the events around its founding in 1926.
