The latest Irish Times/TG4 Ipsos B&A poll from Dublin Central suggests that the byelection in the capital is just as finely balanced as the one in Galway West. There are some similarities: a fragmented field in which transfers will likely prove decisive; a weakened Fianna Fáil struggling to remain competitive; and an electorate that appears increasingly detached from traditional party loyalties.
But there are differences too. Whereas in Galway West it is a Government candidate, Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne, who holds a narrow advantage, in Dublin Central Janice Boylan of Sinn Féin is marginally ahead.
That is hardly a surprise. Party leader Mary Lou McDonald topped the poll in the general election and the constituency has been a Sinn Féin stronghold for some time.
Yet Boylan will be looking over her shoulder at the Social Democrats’ Daniel Ennis, who trails her by only a few points. The poll also shows the Social Democrats performing strongly in second preferences. With transfers from Green, Labour and People Before Profit voters available, and probably some support from Government party voters anxious to keep Sinn Féin out, Ennis looks well placed at this stage.
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The poll points to an increasingly competitive relationship between Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats for progressive urban voters. Sinn Féin remains the largest force on the left, but no longer dominates the Opposition as it once did. The Social Democrats continue to consolidate support among younger and more liberal urban voters, while also benefiting from strong transfer friendliness.
Of the two Government parties, Fine Gael will be the happier. Its candidate, Ray McAdam, is polling respectably enough to leave him with a chance of contending seriously for a seat at the next general election. Fianna Fáil, however, will be less content. Its candidate, John Stephens, is attracting less than 4 per cent support. The party’s campaign was hardly aided by the release this week of a video showing former taoiseach Bertie Ahern expressing offensive views on race and migration while canvassing with Stephens. Fianna Fáil now appears headed for disappointing results in both byelections, an uncomfortable backdrop as it marks its centenary.
Perhaps the most striking result in the poll is the performance of Gerry Hutch, who is in third place on 14 per cent. Hutch, who narrowly missed out on a seat in Dublin Central in the 2024 general election, may still struggle to improve his position in a crowded field. But the willingness of so many voters to back a figure associated with organised crime is a troubling sign of growing alienation from mainstream society. If that is not addressed, it risks hardening into something even darker and more destructive.
