Ministers’ report cards: With a reshuffle on the way, who is safe and who should be worried?

The formation of a new government after the election of Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach is expected to involve minimal Cabinet changes. But how have ministers performed over the last 2½ years during a remarkable period which included a pandemic closely followed by a once in a generation cost-of-living surge all against the backdrop of an unremitting housing crisis?

Below, we look at how each of the ministers have handled the challenges within their briefs and mark their performance. We also examine who is likely to hold on to their jobs and who might be nervously watching the phone.

Paschal Donohoe

• HIGHLIGHT Budget 2023
• LOWLIGHT Decided to change the cap on bankers’ bonuses and some bankers’ pay – presenting a gift to Sinn Féin
• MOVEABILITY Certain
• CHANCE OF SURVIVAL Certain

Now 5½ years as Minister for Finance, Donohoe’s move to the Department of Public Expenditure is one of a few certainties. He has carefully tended his relationship with Fianna Fáil’s Michael McGrath, in perhaps the most solid axis of the entire Coalition. He leaves with his stock high, having overseen a rapid post-Covid bounce and presiding over a large Exchequer surplus at the end of the year, despite an €11 billion giveaway budget. Though fortunate with the billions in corporation tax from a small number of companies, he has worked hard to convince them that changes in the international tax climate will not unduly affect their Irish operations.

Fine Gael backbenchers, who grumbled about him being too tight with the purse strings before the last election, greeted the budget with acclaim, cheering him at the post-budget parliamentary party meeting. Relations with his leader, however, are perhaps not as close as they once were.

Stardust State apology: ‘We failed you when you needed us the most’ - Taoiseach Simon Harris tells Dáil

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Simon Harris pays personal tribute to each of the 48 Stardust victims

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Simon Harris gives state apology to families of Stardust fire victims

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Michael McNamara to run in European elections in Ireland South constituency

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He pulled the political manoeuvre of the year by winning a second term as head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, despite exiting the Department of Finance.

[ ‘The beauty and risk of Leo’: Pressure is on for Varadkar to deliver as taoiseach ]

Michael McGrath

• HIGHLIGHT Budget 2023
• LOWLIGHT Unable to control overspending in several Government departments, most spectacularly on the national children’s hospital
• MOVEABILITY Certain
• CHANCE OF SURVIVAL Certain

Is it an advantage or a disadvantage to share a constituency with your party leader? Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Michael McGrath had the smarts to make it an advantage, realising he would never supplant Micheál Martin and avoiding – now anyway – the constituency rivalry that often wrecks relationships. Instead he has gone on to become Martin’s most reliable ministerial performer and, with Paschal Donohoe, the solid axis of the Coalition. Now the two men will swap jobs, with McGrath heading to Finance, where his steady partnership with Donohoe will continue. Hard-working and always in command of his brief, McGrath is not the type of politician who delivers Dáil fireworks, and faces criticism from his own for not using his elbows politically.

But he is steady and unflappable – useful, maybe essential, traits in a finance minister. And he demonstrated a bit of elbow earlier this year when Fine Gaelers started suggesting that he forego Finance so that Donohoe could stay as Eurogroup chair.

McGrath made it clear it was no dice on that. He was, observers noted, something of a star turn at the Fianna Fáil ardfheis, leading to speculation that he could be in line to succeed his constituency colleague.

Stephen Donnelly

• HIGHLIGHT After years of delay and divisive debate, Donnelly finally secured Cabinet approval in principle to relocate the National Maternity Hospital
• LOWLIGHT Donnelly had to apologise for describing Leas-Cheann Comhairle Catherine Connolly’s Dáil directions as “unf***ingbelievable”. Meanwhile, more than 60,000 health workers still wait for their pandemic payment
• MOVEABILITY Low
• CHANCE OF SURVIVAL Reasonable

Stephen Donnelly’s appointment as Minister for Health in 2020 put more than a few noses out of joint in Fianna Fáil, with veterans unhappy that a relative newcomer had snagged a Cabinet position above them. His handling of the Covid-19 crisis was a mixed bag.

On one hand, he presented himself as a Minister willing to take on HSE and officials where needed. On the other hand, those same health figures privately expressed serious misgivings about his handling of pandemic advice.

Meanwhile, his political colleagues bridled over repeated communications blunders about the vaccination roll-out and work-from-home policies. Despite that, the vaccination campaign was considered an overall success.

Donnelly was in rocky waters this summer for failing to register a rental property with the Residential Tenancies Board for three years, even though registration is a legal rule, not a choice. However, Donnelly may have done enough to survive, especially after pushing through the new public-only hospital consultant contract. For now, the jury is out.

[ Miriam Lord: Stephen Donnelly’s ministerial career is sitting up in bed and having a soft boiled egg ]

Darragh O’Brien

• HIGHLIGHT O’Brien successfully pushed back against his own officials to introduce a more generous scheme to help homeowners affected by defective blocks
• LOWLIGHT Another dismal record has been set as the numbers in emergency accommodation have now passed 11,000 for the first time since current records began in 2014
• MOVEABILITY Low
• CHANCE OF SURVIVAL Certain

Darragh O’Brien is one of the few ministers who have been all but guaranteed their Cabinet place, given Micheal Martin’s decision to back his continued stay in the role during the party’s recent ardfheis. The message from Fianna Fáil is that it is not backing away from its Housing for All plan, or the man driving it.

Like others, however, O’Brien’s record is mixed. The number of new homes that will be constructed this will beat the Government’s 24,600 target set under Housing for All, but the Opposition complains that the figures are stacked with private market builds rather than much-needed social and affordable homes that are within the price range of young working couples, who are currently priced out of the market.

However, Trinity College economics professor Ronan Lyons says that the number of new homes required is much higher than the Government estimates, and he argues 62,000 new homes are needed in the State each year, and will be for some time. Such numbers, however, are but dreamland for ministers struggling to cope with high building inflations, planning delays and shortages of workers. The Housing For All plan targets 29,000 homes being delivered next year, but building contraction spells further trouble ahead. If so, and if it continues the following year, then the Government and, especially Fianna Fail, will struggle to get a hearing from the under-40s and many of their much older parents. Much of the responsibility for the future fortunes of Fianna Fail lie in the hands of the North Dublin TD.

[ Analylsis: Will the planning system be fixed by new law? ]

Roderic O’Gorman

• HIGHLIGHT Securing €1bn in Budget 2023, helping to slash childcare costs by up to 25 per cent.
• LOWLIGHT Overall handling of the Mother and Baby Homes controversy.
• MOVEABILITY Low
• CHANCE OF SURVIVAL High

In recent months, those working closely with Minister for Children and Integration Roderic O’Gorman have painted a picture of a politician with an extraordinary workload ranging from childcare, early learning and youth services to refugee accommodation.

O’Gorman’s has the job of finding accommodation for more than 65,000 Ukrainian refugees fleeing war. While Green Party ministers are expected to remain in their current portfolios, it is likely that he will get some extra help to fully address the State’s humanitarian actions.

Separately, O’Gorman’s handling of the mother and baby homes controversy has been criticised on several occasions. A promise to independently review the testimony of survivors – made following sustained criticism of the work of the Commission on Mother and Baby Homes Commission – was subsequently dropped. O’Gorman was praised for a White Paper that promised to end direct provision by 2024, but that looks unlikely now.

Simon Coveney

• HIGHLIGHT The defence of Ireland’s interests post-Brexit
• LOWLIGHT The ill-fated bid to appoint Katherine Zappone as a special envoy
• MOVEABILITY High
• CHANCE OF SURVIVAL Certain

Twelve years in Cabinet, Simon Coveney has had a successful stint in Agriculture, a less successful time in Housing. Leo Varadkar appointed his vanquished rival for the Fine Gael leadership to Foreign Affairs in 2017. He remained at Iveagh House after the 2020 election.

Since then, Coveney has participated in United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meetings – after spearheading the campaign to win Ireland a seat. He later had to navigate a controversy that blew up last Christmas over drinks held by department officials – not attended by Coveney – to celebrate the successful UNSC campaign in breach of pandemic lockdown rules. However, his own biggest blunder was his attempt to appoint former minister Katherine Zappone as a special envoy. That saga dominated the news for two months and posed a headache for Government in autumn 2021.

She ultimately said she would not take up the role but Coveney’s handling of the issue damaged him and the Government. He has recovered since, continuing to be strident, if often long-winded, in efforts to protect Ireland’s Brexit interests. He cannot be blamed for the current collapse of powersharing institutions in the North – in itself part of the Brexit fallout. Coveney was among the first foreign politicians to visit Ukraine after the invasion, vocally condemning Russian aggression. If outgoing Taoiseach Micheál Martin takes the Foreign Affairs job, as many have predicted, Coveney will be on the move. Replacing Varadkar as minister for Enterprise is perhaps the most likely outcome.

Catherine Martin

• HIGHLIGHT Getting the Online Safety Bill over the line
• LOWLIGHT Her narrow loss to Eamon Ryan in the 2020 Green Party post-election leadership contest
• MOVEABILITY Low
• CHANCE OF SURVIVAL Certain

The Green deputy leader voted against entering Coalition talks with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, against the majority of her party. Ultimately, she was part of the negotiating team and recommended that the Greens enter government. She challenged Eamon Ryan in a leadership contest that had to be held after the election under party rules. She narrowly lost out in the race, which took place at a time of turmoil and division in the Green Party after it went into Government.

Since then, Ms Martin has knuckled down in her role heading up a Frankenstein’s monster of a Department that includes tourism, culture, arts, the Gaeltacht, sport and media. Covid-19 dominated much of the last 2 1/2 years, with the need to help the hospitality sector through the pandemic and how to revive tourism. Perhaps her biggest legislative achievement is getting the Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill enacted this month, which aims to protect children online and sets up the new Coimisiún na Meán (Media Commission) to oversee online safety and regulating television broadcasting including streaming services.

However, while the Coalition has agreed to overhaul how the TV licence fee is collected, it rejected a Future of Media Commission recommendation to abolish the licence fee and replace it with exchequer funding – much to RTÉ's ire. One success is the pilot basic income scheme of €325 per week for artists.

Simon Harris

• HIGHLIGHT Achieving a €1,000 cut in college registration fees in this budget – with the promise of more to come
• LOWLIGHT Caught up in an uncomfortable kerfuffle and supposed “sting” operation over alleged Cabinet leaking (which he says is untrue) of the Katherine Zappone appointment
• MOVEABILITY Medium
• CHANCE OF SURVIVAL High

After the intensity of being in Health during the CervicalCheck controversy and the first, chaotic phase of the pandemic, Harris’s new portfolio keeps him away from the front pages, for the most part. That can be a blessing and a curse. Infrequent contact with controversy reduces the prospect of shipping major political damage, and, like Agriculture, Higher and Further Education is more about tending to your own patch than regularly managing public scandals. Conversely, it offers a smaller audience for successes such as improving access to further education, shaking up apprenticeships, or helping to build more accommodation for students.

For an ambitious (critics would say sometimes nakedly so) young man like Harris, this cuts both ways. He would welcome a higher-profile department, and much will depend on where Micheál Martin finally sits, but he is pretty much undroppable. While it would be fascinating to see a slighted Harris on manoeuvres outside Cabinet, he is seen as too much of an asset to the government, and Leo Varadkar does not need a powerful internal enemy.

Norma Foley

• HIGHLIGHT Handling of Covid
• LOWLIGHT Ongoing problem with teacher recruitment and retention
• MOVEABILITY Low
• CHANCE OF SURVIVAL Certain

Appointed Minister for Education in June 2020, soon after being first elected, Norma Foley’s first month was hellish. All at sea in media interviews, she has not repeated such uncertainty since then.

Ms Foley, a former English teacher, has been no pushover. Generally regarded as having handled the impact of Covid well, she took a brave call by reopening schools after the second lockdown. She was lucky that the Irish version of calculated grades followed Britain and she avoided the blunders the British made. Some unfairness was inevitable, while the return to normal grading rules is too slow.

She has been surprisingly bold on curriculum reform and has secured significant funding for education, including free books. Unbending, though, on teacher shortages, she floated the suspension of career breaks, which has gone down like a lead balloon. The sudden expansion of the school transport scheme, after fees were waived, also caught her badly on the hop in September.

Ms Foley is competent and hard-working. She tends to stay within her departmental silo. Talked about as a leadership contender, she will need to extend her reach beyond Marlborough Street if she has serious ambitions.

Heather Humphreys

• HIGHLIGHT Generous social welfare increases
• LOWLIGHT Fudge on the pension issue, insensitive correspondence sent by Department officials to grieving individuals
• MOVEABILITY Low
• CHANCE OF SURVIVAL Certain

After her first torrid month as Minister for Arts and Culture in 2014, it seemed that Enda Kenny had made a terrible mistake in elevating Heather Humphreys. However, the Monaghan TD learned from that and has become one of Fine Gael’s most reliable, accessible and (almost) indispensable ministers.

She is old-school and conservative with a small “c” in her approach. She does not do “the big-vision thing”. But she has come out of each of her departments with her reputation, if not enhanced, then not damaged. She knows, too, the value of keeping in close touch with Fine Gael rural Ireland, particularly with the Border region. She was one of the quickest to attack Alan Dukes for his recent crass remarks on Border people. Her rural roadshows are straight out of the Michael Ring playbook. As Minister for Social Protection, she has not been slow to let people know about Covid payments and cost-of-living funds. She and the Government fudged on pensions, leaving the qualifying age at 66.

A minister for eight years, she is confident enough to go out and front-up on any subject. She has stood in for Justice for Helen McEntee’s maternity leave. She’s good at talking a lot and saying little, except regarding Sinn Féin, which she criticises at every turn.

Eamon Ryan

• HIGHLIGHT Climate Action Plan
• LOWLIGHT Falling asleep in chamber, slowness of implementation
• MOVEABILITY Low
• CHANCE OF SURVIVAL Certain

At his party’s national conference, Eamon Ryan predicted that the Greens could double their seats in the next local elections from 50 to 100. That tells you a lot about Ryan, the eternal optimist. The difficulty is the gap between ambition and reality.

That said, the Greens have achieved more now than they did in 2007. Already over the line are the Climate Change Act, the Climate Action Plan, a circular economy, and a basic income. In Ryan’s own portfolio, shedloads of funding have gone to cycleways and pedestrianisation. The targets are close to impossible, though. Already they’ve rowed back on having one million EVs on the road by 2030. How much offshore power will operate by 2030? Will 500,000 homes be insulated? Hmm. On a more positive note, the party’s internal wounds have been mostly salved, except for Ceta (the EU trade deal with Canada).

Ryan’s leadership is secure. Right now, it’s hard to see anyone else leading the Greens into the next election.

[ Eamon Ryan ‘asleep at the wheel again’ over failure at Dublin Airport to prepare for cold weather ]

Helen McEntee

• HIGHLIGHT Her response to gender-based violence
• LOWLIGHT Séamus Woulfe appointment; Garda numbers
• MOVEABILITY Low
• CHANCE OF SURVIVAL Certain

There have been Ministers for Justice who were law-and-order politicians: John O’Donohue, Dermot Ahern and Charlie Flanagan. There have been reformers: Alan Shatter and Michael McDowell.

Helen McEntee falls squarely into the latter camp. She is less showy, operating quietly in Justice, pushing through a high volume of ground-breaking and modernising legislation – despite taking time out for maternity leave.

There is the policy of zero tolerance on gender-based violence; creating new distinct offences for non-fatal strangulation and stalking; gangland measures such as imposing life sentences for conspiracy to murder.

Other key reforms have included the Family Court Bill (to make family court proceedings more human and family-oriented), the long-awaited Judicial Council and Judicial Appointments Commission; Coco’s Law (to criminalise use of intimate issues on social media without consent); and modernising licensing laws leading to greatly extended hours for sale of alcohol. Body cameras for gardaí are also a big priority. The controversial (and difficult) Crime and Hate Speech Bill is currently in the Dáil – the law may have some serious unintended consequences.

She has gone too far at times, with plans to give gardaí powers to use facial recognition technology, which could amount to a breach of people’s civil rights. Her account of the process around the appointment of Séamus Woulfe to the Supreme Court was not her finest moment. She has not done enough either to reform the State’s unwieldy immigration policies. There are also shortfalls in the recruitment of new gardaí.

Charlie McConalogue

• HIGHLIGHT Leading the charge for Ireland on the new CAP
• LOWLIGHT The huge local pressure over mica
• MOVEABILITY Medium
• CHANCE OF SURVIVAL High

The Donegal TD was third in line for the Agriculture job – only being appointed after the brief tenures of Barry Cowen and Dara Calleary. However, he has grasped the opportunity with enthusiasm, listening to farmers at marts the length and breadth of the country and taking their views to Dublin and Brussels as the new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was formed.

He was at the centre of internal Coalition wrangling last summer over agreed ceilings for greenhouse gas emissions. In the end, McConalogue and Environment Minister Eamon Ryan split the difference between their respective goals and settled on 25 per cent. Neither side was thrilled but farmers could perhaps take comfort from the cut being closer to the lower end of the scale previously indicated – 22 per cent – than the 30 per cent Ryan was seeking.

At constituency level, McConalogue was under pressure to deliver a generous redress scheme for homeowners in the county whose properties are damaged by mica. He has backed the Government’s scheme, highlighting how the level of support on offer will be re-evaluated each year to keep pace with construction costs. The expectation that Sinn Féin – which made much of the mica issue – will fight for three seats in Donegal at the next election will undoubtedly be factored into considerations on whether or not McConalogue will remain in Cabinet.

Super juniors

Of the Cabinet’s three super junior ministers, Fianna Fáil’s Jack Chambers has made the biggest impression, aided by the “good news” nature of the sports brief. He is seen by many as a future Fianna Fáil leader, but it seems, that there are no vacancies now at Cabinet. The rotation of the chief whip role to Fine Gael means anything save a promotion to Cabinet is de facto a demotion. Fianna Fáil suffered for an absence of Cabinet veterans in the first part of the Coalition, and failure to blood Chambers fully may come back to haunt them.

Hildegarde Naughton has been solid but unspectacular, achieving new supports for An Post branches and bringing the State’s first haulage policy to Cabinet before Christmas. But she failed to grasp opportunities to put her stamp on high profile difficulties at Dublin Airport. She is the most likely of the super juniors to be squeezed out: colleagues don’t see her as chief whip material, although gender and geography (she is the only Connacht TD sitting at Cabinet) play in her favour.

Eamon Ryan’s blanket protection of his Cabinet ministers will likely extend to Pippa Hackett, who has proved herself an able media performer and has secured funding for the hobbled forestry sector, as well as for organic farming. Ultimately, her effectiveness will be judged by getting a hearing for the green agenda in Agriculture House. Environmentalists were extremely lukewarm about the farming emissions ceilings agreed in the summer, but Ms Hackett was spared any specific criticism.