ANALYSIS:PETER ROBINSON is fighting for his political survival. The fact that he is prepared to battle on is remarkable in itself after such a terrible week for him and his wife Iris. In most normal democracies, the nails would be well hammered into the coffin of any leader who had sustained such wounds, writes GERRY MORIARTY
But Northern Ireland is not a normal polity, and Peter Robinson is not a normal political leader in the sense of the political and paramilitary maelstrom the North came through over 40 years to finally arrive at powersharing politics. And, mindful of the bigger picture, and away from the lurid and the sensational, who is there in the DUP wings to replace him capable of keeping Stormont working? Hard to think of a successor, isn’t it?
SDLP leader Mark Durkan correctly said that Robinson may be found innocent of any transgressions, to use a Tiger Woods term, but that this isn’t about legalisms – this is about politics, a “rough” trade, as Robinson told me when I interviewed him yesterday evening.
He wasn’t at all as shaken looking as when he made those explosive revelations at his home on Wednesday about his wife’s affair and subsequent attempt at suicide. There was still some of the old Robinson mettle present, but it has been tempered – there is no doubt about that.
Ulster Unionist leader Sir Reg Empey suggested Robinson should fall on his sword. “The country is crying out for leadership at a time when we are encompassed by terrorism on the one hand and a stalled Executive on the other,” he said. “He is not providing that leadership.”
Hardly surprisingly, this was the view of his arch opponent and former ally, Jim Allister of the Traditional Unionist Voice Party. “Mr Robinson has lost the moral authority to govern and therefore should resign as First Minister.” Other more objective sources speaking to The Irish Times also questioned how Robinson could hang in. “In the lead-up to the Westminster elections expected in May, would DUP politicians want to canvass with such a damaged leader?” asked one. “How can his leadership remain tenable?”
Martin McGuinness provided a little room to manoeuvre for the First Minister, but not a lot. Today’s Sinn Féin ardcomhairle that might have adjudicated on how to respond to the refusal of the DUP to move on policing and justice was postponed due to the weather. Good old weather, a handy pretext sometimes.
McGuinness was clear though that this turmoil could not continue relentlessly without serious political fallout. “The two governments cannot allow this to continue.” Equally though, he did not write off Robinson or ask for his resignation.
What all the political protagonists must also consider are the implications if Robinson walks away or is forced to leave office, and they are serious. If Robinson stands down, then there will be seven days to appoint a new First Minister. However, the Office of First Minister and Deputy First Minister is a joint office: a DUP First Minister cannot take office without the agreement of Sinn Féin, and vice versa.
Were the current DUP deputy Nigel Dodds or some other potential candidate to become DUP leader and seek the First Minister post, does anyone seriously believe Sinn Féin would acquiesce to such an appointment without the DUP categorically first committing to the transfer of policing and justice powers?
Equally, if Robinson remains and still procrastinates on policing and justice, then Stormont might be a busted flush regardless – but in such a scenario both the DUP and Sinn Féin would have to shoulder blame.
Were Robinson to be ousted or stand down as First Minister, Northern Secretary Shaun Woodward should be obliged under the St Andrews Agreement to call immediate Assembly elections. Would the DUP want an election after the turmoil of recent weeks? There are difficult and complex decisions to be made by the DUP faithful.
Mark Durkan is correct that, legally, Robinson could be proved innocent by the immediate inquiry he is asking a senior counsel to carry out, with Martin McGuinness engaging in a similar enterprise.
Think about the BBC Spotlight programme. Its hard allegation against Robinson was that he was in breach of parliamentary ethics by not reporting to the Assembly and Westminster moral custodians that his wife allegedly wrongly manufactured a £50,000 loan for her former lover.
But Robinson took morally correct action to ensure the money was returned. The case against him is that he should also have reported Iris to the standards and procedures people.
That he should shop his wife after trying to undo the damage she did? If you apply such standards, how many people would you still have sitting in Westminster, Leinster House or Stormont? We may be into an argument here about the letter and spirit of the law.
Durkan is also correct though that even if you surmount the legal hurdles, you can still be convicted by a hanging jury. The jury, whether in hanging mode or not, is the DUP organisation. Whether Robinson stays or goes is down to the MPs, Assembly members, councillors and branch members and the DUP supporters in the cities, towns, villages and rural parts of the North.
There are divided opinions. All this talk about infidelity and Iris’s alleged financial wrongdoing plays badly, obviously, especially with the Bible-belters. Some believe he is “toast”; others ask what is the alternative.
His deputy Nigel Dodds has not been central to any form of dynamic politics since his wife Diane won a seat but performed poorly in last June’s European elections. Arlene Foster is talked about as a possible compromise candidate, and there were even suggestions last night of Sammy Wilson as leader. Not much clarity of purpose there.
If more awful stuff comes out at the weekend, in the Sunday newspapers or elsewhere as in the drip, drip, drip of damaging revelations, then Robinson is in serious trouble. However, he was categorical yesterday that no one will lay a hand against him in terms of any form of financial wrongdoing on his part, because there isn’t any financial wrongdoing.
One senior party figure, a supporter, put it well: “Lose Peter and you lose Stormont.” That seems a reasonable analysis. Is that what the DUP wants? Dissident republicans, with their terrible attack on a PSNI officer, certainly want such a situation. The attack would seem designed to exploit the current political tumult.
The DUP faithful have big decisions to make and it could go either way for the First Minister, who at the very least has demonstrated he has guts. The odds remain marginally against Robinson – but he still has a chance.