The punters can't judge for themselves without the IRA statement, writesGerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, made his political name as a minister for labour who could crack "impossible" industrial disputes when everybody else had thrown in the towel and walked away in despair.
He was at it again yesterday morning in Athens, persuading the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, to give the Northern Ireland peace process another 24 hours at least, rather than conceding that there was no more life left in the negotiations.
One person who was party to those trade union-employer bargaining days recalled: "When confronted one-to-one with Bertie's persuasiveness your natural inclination was to say Yes."
Mr Ahern's magnetism hasn't so far worked with P. O'Neill. By yesterday evening the Taoiseach, just like Mr Blair, was wondering if the time had arrived to pigeonhole this project until after the summer.
He conceded that these talks must conclude "sooner rather than later". But, ever willing to travel hopefully, and looking at his watch, he added: "But as of now, 7.30 p.m.Athens time, 5.30 p.m. Irish time, we are not at that stage."
It was stated in Belfast earlier in this wearying week of peace-process politics that the republican movement was facing a monumental choice: to state in terms understandable to people of non-obsessive political mind that the IRA was retreating into the mist; or to maintain the current state of political deadlock and public apathy and cynicism.
And there is a lot of apathy and cynicism about. In Northern Ireland these seemingly endless and fruitless attempts to end the impasse are being put further and further down the priority running order of stories on radio and television, reflecting a dangerous public ennui.
As ever the bottom line for the governments is "clarity and certainty" from the IRA that it is ceasing all paramilitary activity - punishment attacks, spying, foreign adventures, smuggling etc.
The Sinn Féin president, Mr Gerry Adams, the West Tyrone MP, Mr Pat Doherty, and the party's policing spokesman, Mr Gerry Kelly, in recent days described the IRA statement respectively as "unprecedented", "incredible" and "very positive".
So why the delay in publishing the joint Hillsborough proposals? they asked. Easy to answer, said Dublin and London, because the IRA just won't offer those few unconditional words that would demonstrate it is pulling down the shutters, irrespective of the carrot of a blueprint that substantially meets republican demands, and the stick of British and Irish government fury at the "inadequacy" of what the IRA was offering in return.
While the Government is prepared to barter to the 59th minute of the eleventh hour, the British government believes the hands of the clock have moved way past the midnight hour.
"I think we are getting to the stage of desperation actually," said a London insider. "A point has got to come where you say this is not going to work."
So, short of dramatic last-minute movement from the IRA, it appears that politics will be put back on hold until the autumn, and publication of the blueprint will be shelved.
Some Easter decommissioning from the IRA could assist, but it would need to be very dramatic if it was not backed up with words.
The governments say that if this period of negotiating is parked the Assembly elections for May 29th will proceed, but you can't help but wonder if they are totally serious.
The election date is set in stone, said Mr Ahern yesterday. British government spokesmen echo such commitments. If that is the case, Mr David Trimble's political career could be in mortal jeopardy, and with it the cause of pro-Belfast Agreement Ulster Unionists.
A disastrous election for Yes unionists could not only further split unionism but undermine the agreement itself.
"Can you imagine it," said one commentator, "David Trimble calling to doors looking for votes, and being told, 'Clear away, Ian Paisley was right after all'."
There could be the makings of a rift here between Dublin and London, although whether sham or real is another matter. Mr Blair believes he owes Mr Trimble for steering unionists thus far in very troubled waters.
"Is he going to ditch him overboard because the IRA can't or won't demonstrate its war is over? Should he suffer for what the IRA can't or won't do?" asked the same commentator. The Prime Minister will take some time over that question.
Without a breakthrough Northern Ireland would face its annual summer season of trouble, whether arising from Drumcree and other contentious parades or at the sectarian interfaces - and all of this stoked by the political instability. And perhaps also stoked by those who want to make a political point out of the political vacuum.
Even if there is an election there can hardly be an executive, because unionists wouldn't share power with Sinn Féin, and the SDLP is highly unlikely to go into government with unionists with Sinn Féin excluded. The DUP says it has an alternative, which might allow for government, but keeps Sinn Féin at bay. Again difficult to see how either the governments or the SDLP would sign up to Mr Peter Robinson dictating the shape of politics here.
Work will resume again in the autumn. Even with the summer holidays how could the politicians re-energise themselves again from the awful draining torpor of this process to step once more into the breach? Finally, there will be the usual bout of recrimination. Sinn Féin was blaming unionists yesterday, but that didn't appear to wash with anyone.
British and Irish sources insist that the IRA has not delivered and, if this does collapse, appear prepared to make that point by publishing the IRA statement.
Although based on past experience they could retreat from that position in order to placate Sinn Féin in the hope that the IRA could shape the simple sentence that it is ending all activity.
At least publishing the statement would allow the people to judge for themselves.