It is a fact that Sinn Fein and the IRA would prefer to deal with a Government headed by Bertie Ahern rather than John Bruton. And it is more likely that there would be an early renewal of the IRA ceasefire if Mr Ahern rather than Mr Bruton were Taoiseach. But the issues of the North go far beyond a ceasefire. If it comes about it will only be the first step towards a solution. And it will mark the start of a process which will demand qualities of judgment, of courage and of commitment.
Ultimately too, if it is successful, it will demand a willingness to compromise on the part of all groupings. The people of this State will have to yield in some degree on cherished principles. That will require singular qualities of leadership in the Taoiseach of the day. The polls show a belief that a Fianna Fail led Government would be better on the North. But most respondents think little beyond the simplistic objective of an end to IRA violence.
Mr Bruton is sometimes perceived as lacking a feel for the problem and of inadequately representing the aspirations of nationalist Ireland. Some of this is both accurate and self inflicted. It is a measure of his generosity that he believes he has to demonstrate an evenhandedness as between unionist and nationalist sensitivities. But he has been less than astute in his dealings with the British. And he has shown a distasteful tendency to try to smear as Sinn Fein/IRA fellow travellers those who query his judgment.
A Fianna Fail led Government appeals to the Provisionals partly because of the role of Albert Reynolds in brokering the first ceasefire. They believe they would find it easier to get along with his political successor. They believe he would support the concept of a pannationalist front in a way that John Bruton does not. And they believe he would be more likely to maintain pressure on the British. It is, of course, far from certain that Bertie Ahern would deal with the Provisionals in the same coin as Albert Reynolds and those who know him well have not noted him as an instinctive and passionately green nationalist.
But if the Provisional Sinn Fein/IRA analysis is correct and Bertie Ahern is more their kind of Taoiseach, questions voters will consider are these: do we want a Taoiseach whom Sinn Fein/IRA view more favourably or do we want a Taoiseach who has an instinctive resistance to their brand of raw, tribal nationalism? Do we want a Taoiseach whom the Provisionals view as easier to deal with or do we want one who will refuse to give them the benefit of the doubt?
There is a broad measure of consensus across party lines on the North, defined by the Downing Street Declaration and the Framework Document. But a great deal depends on leadership, judgment and commitment. If the North is mishandled, every part of this island will pay a price in blood and in treasure. And if it can be steered through to a resolution, the prize will bring dividends of peace and prosperity.
With John Bruton on the North, what you see is what you will get. It is a mixed record of good intentions, sometimes clumsy execution and instinctive, rockhard resolution never to yield to violence. Bertie Ahern has not been Taoiseach and it is impossible to be specific in the same degree. But he has proven qualities as a negotiator and he has shown a capacity to confront deep seated and not very admirable traits in his party. However Bertie Ahern may be judged were he to be Taoiseach, the fact that Sinn Fein might prefer to see him in office rather than John Bruton should not be allowed to weigh against him. The perception that Fianna Fail is soft on political violence is not borne out by the historical record.