The vaccines mess may end but economic clouds loom; no wonder people are frightened

After months of taking the blame for the slow rollout of the Covid-19 vaccination programme, the European Union rode to the rescue this week with an extra half a million Pfizer doses, just in time to save the Government’s blushes over the chaotic handling of the AstraZeneca vaccine.

The future of the Coalition depends on getting the vaccine rollout back on track so that the promised easing of restrictions next month can take place as scheduled. The timely intervention by the EU gave Micheál Martin and Leo Varadkar the opportunity to claim that vaccine targets would still be met despite a topsy-turvy few days of contradictory announcements. They had better be right.

Of course the politicians are not the only ones to blame for what threatened to become a shambles early in the week. They have had to cope with unexpected and sudden changes in official advice on the safety of different vaccines combined with changing information about supply from the pharmaceutical companies. At the end of the day, though, it is the Government which will be held responsible for success or failure.

The announcement of the extra half million Pfizer/BioNTech doses came in the nick of time

The country’s vaccination programme was thrown into doubt by the decision of the National Immunisation Advisory Committee (Niac) on Monday to recommend that the AstraZeneca vaccine should not be given to people under 60, a complete reversal of its earlier advice that it was safe for everybody except those over 70.

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The puzzling thing is that last month Niac paused the entire rollout of AstraZeneca when evidence from Norway suggested that it could have safety implications for young women. After reassurance from the European Medicines Agency, the rollout resumed with no change in the age profile of the recipients and no warnings about the possible impact on young women until this week.

Safety concerns

When allied with the delay in the arrival of the Johnson&Johnson vaccine, due to similar safety concerns, it looked as if the country’s immunisation programme was about to be derailed. Luckily the announcement of the extra half million Pfizer/BioNTech doses came in the nick of time.

With a bit of luck, the rejigged vaccination programme will still meet the target of getting almost all adults inoculated by the summer.

The mess made of the quarantine arrangements added to public disquiet. How could anybody have confidence in a system that demanded quarantine for people travelling from Israel, which has had the most successful vaccine programme in the world, while a range of countries with nothing like the same level of protection against the virus are not on the list. Simon Harris was right to point out the absurdity of quarantining people who are fully vaccinated and have negative tests.

The confusion and anxiety of recent months may well be regarded in hindsight as a hiccup rather than a series of political blunders

Another strange feature of the way the pandemic is being handled by the authorities here is the fact that the official figures for registered deaths are so out of date.

For instance on Wednesday, 12 new Covid-linked deaths were reported on the evening television news yet a more detailed look at the figures disclosed that four of those deaths took place this month, two were in March and six were back in January.

Such out-of-date figures create a misleading impression, so it is no wonder the public remains confused and frightened. Varadkar attempted to reassure people by focusing on more relevant and up-to-date statistics which show there are fewer than 200 people in hospital at this stage while the number in intensive care has fallen below 60. These figures indicate that the vaccination programme has already had a massive impact.

Places of worship

Assuming the trend continues, there will be no excuse for not proceeding to relax restrictions next month. Official estimates are that only 0.1 per cent of Covid transmission has taken place outdoors so there is an overwhelming argument for allowing outdoor activities to resume. There is also a very strong case for allowing places of worship to open. Ireland is almost unique in the world in banning public worship and there is a strong argument that it infringes the constitutional right to freedom of religion.

If the vaccination programme works and society is able to return to some semblance of normality by the summer, all of the confusion and anxiety of recent months may well be regarded in hindsight as a hiccup rather than a series of political blunders, particularly if the widely forecast strong economic recovery materialises on cue.

The Government’s economic outlook for the year published by Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe on Wednesday gave grounds for hope that the country will be able to recover quickly from the blow inflicted by Covid-19. Ireland was one of few developed countries to experience some economic growth last year and the Department of Finance is now projecting a 4.5 per cent increase in gross domestic product this year, an upward revision of almost 2 per cent on its earlier forecast.

The figures show that the country is in a far better state to weather the storm than it was a decade ago. What they don’t reveal is the nature of the measures that will inevitably be required to steady the ship. While a return to austerity can be avoided, difficult choices on tax and spending measures will have to be made come budget time.