Ahern is keeping the Nice poll date to himself because like Clausewitz he knows 'surprise is the prince of the battlefield', writes Deaglán de Bréadún
The debate on the legislation for the second Nice referendum starts in the Dáil on Wednesday, but already the campaign is in full swing.
The Taoiseach and the Tánaiste, among others, have made significant speeches in favour of a Yes vote. The No to Nice Campaign spent most of August holding meetings around the State. A summary of the Government's White Paper will be published today and sent to every household; the Green Party has already begun its campaign; and the National Forum on Europe starts a well-advertised series of regional meetings in Drogheda tomorrow night.
The contest will become even more intense when a date has been announced. The Dáil debate stretches over two weeks, ending on September 11th. The Referendum Bill is expected to come before the Seanad on September 12th and 13th. Then the Minister for the Environment will sign an order for the holding of the vote, which must take place within a minimum 30 and a maximum 90 days from the date of his signature.
The issue is complicated by the proposed holding of a summit of European leaders in Brussels on October 25th. There is still some uncertainty as to whether the summit will take place on that date. German elections are to be held on September 22nd, but there may not be a German government in place by October 25th.
There has been speculation about holding the referendum on October 17th or 18th. The Danish European Presidency would reportedly like a pre-summit vote, but can a Yes be guaranteed? In the event of a No vote, there is the unappetising prospect for Bertie Ahern and Brian Cowen of having to face the rest of Europe's leaders immediately afterwards. While some of those same leaders might be privately losing their enthusiasm for enlargement, there would be an obvious temptation to say, with hand on heart: "We really want the candidate countries in as quickly as possible, but the Irish keep saying No."
That leaves the end of October or even early November for voting day. Sources close to the Taoiseach said he would not "name the day" for another week or two. He may be waiting until the two-day meeting of his parliamentary party in Killarney on September 17th and 18th. A colleague of his pointed out that this was the man who dissolved the Dáil for the general election without telling anybody else. Like Clausewitz, Bertie Ahern knows well that "surprise is the prince of the battlefield". Sources said he would be putting very intense pressure on TDs and senators to campaign as in a general election.
And the final outcome? Sensible people are refusing to make predictions at this stage. The Yes campaign got off to a strong start in July, with Brian Cowen's and Michael McDowell's launch of the White Paper. At that stage, a senior Green Party figure was saying privately that the Yes side would probably win this time.
However, the various economic measures announced by the Government appeared to bring a change of mood. It has long been the practice of newly elected governments to take a number of fiscal decisions that would have been neither palatable nor popular before polling day.
But on this occasion the apparent retrenchment has been taking place when a very serious constitutional and foreign policy issue has to be decided, namely the ratification of Nice. For once, electors are being given an early opportunity to exact revenge on those whom they perceive, rightly or wrongly, to have "conned" them in the election campaign.
The No side are now in a better mood. "If you ask the same people essentially the same question a second time, you are going to get the same answer," they say confidently.
"It's uphill all the way," Fianna Fáil insiders concede. But they believe that if the Yes campaign focuses on the "soft middle ground" who voted No before but are disposed to vote Yes this time, then the treaty will pass.
One of the most interesting features of this referendum, at least to detached observers, is the way the issues have changed. Neutrality was a major issue last time, but so far this time it has not surfaced in any significant way. The Seville declarations and the additional provision on European common defence in the proposed constitutional amendment have helped to take the sting out of the issue. But the climate on the defence issue could change in unpredictable ways in the event of an actual or imminent US invasion of Iraq.
Immigration was not an issue in the public debate last time, but it has probably been the main focus of attention up to now in the second campaign. The No to Nice Campaign and the National Platform have sought to make political capital out of the Government's pledge of free movement of labour from the new member-states. They have undoubtedly struck a chord with a minority of voters, but the soft middle ground has probably been embarrassed by it. The left is desperately trying to keep it at arm's length.
Sinn Féin and the Greens have increased their parliamentary representation and their support on the ground since the last Nice vote. Some Government supporters pray that Sinn Féin will take its foot off the pedal this time, as part of the republican quest for political "respectability", but there are no indications that this is likely to be the case. Some of the Greens are reported to be privately half-hearted about a second Nice rejection, but once the campaign gets going this will probably change.
Leaders of the business community, farmers and the trade unions will be more actively engaged in seeking a Yes vote this time. Likewise, Fianna Fáil TDs have been made "directors of elections" in their constituencies for the referendum. Resentment against the Taoiseach over his handling of junior ministerial appointments may well dampen some of the enthusiasm.
Fine Gael is holding regional public meetings, although all-party events would probably be more effective. The Labour leadership contest may well feature a debate about the party's position on Nice. Doubts persist about the commitment of the grass roots in political and other organisations to the Yes campaign.
The tone of the Yes campaign will be crucial. Asking an entire people to change its mind is a serious matter.
Deaglán de Bréadún is Foreign Affairs Correspondent of The Irish Times