The Threat To Trimble

Elements of the Ulster Unionist Party, under pressure from their own electoral grassroots, may well seek to take Mr David Trimble…

Elements of the Ulster Unionist Party, under pressure from their own electoral grassroots, may well seek to take Mr David Trimble's head over the coming weeks. There is disillusionment in middle-unionism with the operation of the Belfast Agreement. There is deep resistance to the Patten proposals on policing. There is disquiet over the absence of visible progress on IRA decommissioning. There is anger at prisoner releases. Mr Trimble is accused of delivering nothing but grief and woe to his people.

Apart, of course, from the cessation of violence by the Provisional IRA and the INLA; apart from the republican movement's de facto acceptance of British sovereignty in Northern Ireland; apart from the abandonment of the Republic's constitutional claim and the bringing into operation of representative democratic institutions. In truth, he has secured little beyond enabling the people of Northern Ireland to elect their own government - where previously power resided with London civil-servants. He has achieved nothing apart from the empowering of the people of Northern Ireland to determine their own affairs where up to now, Westminster did so.

For these offences, it is urged by some unionists, David Trimble should go the way of Brian Faulkner, James Chichester-Clark and Terence O'Neill. Then, according to the political visionaries who would see Mr Trimble out, the party can either force the two governments to reshape the Agreement to unionist tastes or they can withdraw from the Executive, effectively bringing down the new representative institutions and all that flows from them. As a strategy, it is remarkably similar to that of the little boy who determined to hold his breath until he burst - just to show his parents how annoyed he was.

Mr Trimble believes that the way to avert this scenario is for a watering down of Patten's proposals on policing as well as more tangible evidence of the IRA's intention to advance the decommissioning process. In Dublin earlier this week, according to reports, he sought support from the Taoiseach and the Government in these matters. Doubtless, the Government is no less anxious than anyone else to see decommissioning brought to a finality. But it is clear that there is no inclination to give Mr Trimble, or those who are pressuring him, anything on policing.

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Nor should there be. The establishment of a police service in Northern Ireland which is free of all attachments, symbolic or otherwise, to either community is a sine qua non of the peace process. It is arguably the most important of all the new institutions provided for in the Belfast Agreement. No section has the right to insist that Northern Ireland's police should, in some liturgical or symbolic way, be seen as belonging to them more than to anybody else. The old RUC is entitled to stand down on first-class terms and then it must be consigned, honourably, to the past. Right down to the last button and badge.

The IRA's commitment to decommissioning is a different matter. Respected independent monitors have seen and have had access to IRA arms dumps on just one occasion. At the very least, a further inspection is now necessary in order to certify that the weapons remain in store and are not in use for training or any other purpose.

At the latter part of the week, Mr Trimble appeared to play down the threat to his leadership. But the threat is real. And there is a substantial element within his party which sees its own ends best served by pulling down the Agreement while refusing to acknowledge that the alternative would be a return to some form of direct rule. It would certainly be weighted more heavily towards nationalist objectives and very probably involve an increased role for Dublin. Can they really expect that it would be otherwise?